When Todd Herreid retired from the General Assembly’s Legislative Council in October, it set off a chain reaction that has now put Kate Watkins into the hot seat as the council’s chief economist.

Last week Watkins led the council’s economists through her first presentation to the Joint Budget Committee on the state revenue forecasts. She replaces Natalie Mullis, who was promoted on Nov. 1 to fiscal director.

Watkins is no stranger to the Legislative Council. She has been with the council, her second time around, since May of 2015. Her first time on staff was from October 2008, just as the worst recession in 50 years was hitting, until December 2011.

It was “an exciting time to be here, as an economist,” Watkins told Colorado Politics. “Recessions are an exciting time to do economic research, because you’re trying to make sense of a rapidly evolving economic environment.”

In between her two bouts with Legislative Council, Watkins got to do what some in her business refer to as a dream job: the Federal Reserve. “It was an opportunity to do in-depth regional economic analysis. The Fed is an exciting place to be. More than anything I wanted to learn about monetary policy” and the best way to get there is to be on the inside.

Watkins worked for the Denver branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City for two years. During that time, she authored, along with Alison Felix, what is now regarded as the seminal paper on “The Impact of an Aging U.S. Population on State Tax Revenues.” Since its publication in 2013, the article has been cited dozens of times in academic, state, federal and international publications.

Somewhere in all of this, Watkins also found time to pursue her doctorate from Cornell University in New York. She’s still plugging away at her dissertation, focused on “Sociology of Financial Literacy,”  hoping to finish it by 2021. The dissertation will look at how young people in K-12  are being taught about financial literacy, as well as the research that says financial literacy education isn’t having the impacts that we all think it should. The question then becomes why continue to pursue policies that don’t work, she said.

Watkins came back to Colorado and the Legislative Council because “it’s the only job I’ve ever loved.” She has lived in Colorado all her life, moving to Loveland at 3 months old. She obtained her bachelor’s degree, in economics and international studies, from the University of Denver. She has two master’s degrees, from Cornell and DU.

Part of doing her first forecast on Dec. 20 was also receiving the ceremonial “Magic 8-ball” that has graced the desks of chief economists for so long that no one remembers who actually started it.

“I really enjoyed engaging” with the JBC, she said this week. While she has been part of revenue presentations in the past, as chief economist what was different was presenting the budget side of things to the JBC.

Watkins also touched on one of the more unusual aspects of the revenue forecast for business: that what the Legislative Council economists come up with often differs from what comes from the governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting.

Historically there’s been more of a difference than there is now, Watkins said, noting that the September forecasts for both groups were virtually identical. December’s numbers from OSPB hinted at a $179 million boost to state revenues in 2017-18. The Legislative Council forecast said their estimates remain unchanged from September.

Watkins attributed the historical difference in the forecasts to estimated payments for individual income taxes, based in part on expected changes in federal tax policy. That led to slower growth in 2016-17 than was originally anticipated. “Our forecast expects a lot of growth relative to last year,” she said, around 7.8 percent, more than double the growth rate for state revenues in 2016-17.

When she’s not thinking about numbers, Watkins hangs out with her German wire-haired border collie mix, Bowie, named for her favorite musician, David Bowie.

Editor’s note: This article was updated at 4:36 p.m. Dec. 26 to correct the spelling of Todd Herreid’s name.