Colorado Politics

A primary brings out primal instincts | SONDERMANN

There are no Stanley Cup finals or NBA title showdowns involving local teams this June. In their place, we are inundated with primary election campaign ads. Coloradans can be excused for missing the diversion and alternate programming.

But life can be cruel and reality bites. The primary elections are upon us. Ballots are now sitting on kitchen tables across the state. Some have already been marked and returned by voters who suffer no doubt or inclination to change their mind.

Vote-counting on June 30 will be here before you know it. In the interim, we will be treated to endless campaign ads, some poisonous, others simply vacuous. Those ads will be joined now and then by further debates, sometimes enlightening, other times entertaining, as one is drawn to a train wreck.

As Colorado increasingly becomes a one-party state (dial up the 9News GOP gubernatorial debate to understand why), Democratic primaries, especially for statewide office, are more and more determinative. The November general election becomes an afterthought.

Further, the growing proliferation of ultra-safe, one-party legislative districts – some as a result of Americans sorting themselves into red and blue communities; some due to map manipulation – makes November ever less relevant.

The headline race to choose our next governor strikes me as a campaign of small differences turned into some major, manufactured chasm. The reality is that both Michael Bennet and Phil Weiser, despite their critics, are mainstream Democrats of intellect and serious intent. They may take a divergent approach to a few issues, but a Bennet governorship is unlikely to look all that different than one led by Weiser. They are significantly cut from the same cloth.

Each would have you believe that the other is a sellout to President Trump. It’s hogwash both ways. Weiser has made himself into the more progressive alternative as that was the only available path. But unlike some other races, the distance between Bennet’s “moderation” and Weiser’s “progressivism” is a few, small degrees at most.

As to their prospects, there appears to be a contradiction at the center of Bennet’s campaign. On one hand, his team expresses great confidence in his standing and name identification. On the other hand, they are sparing no expense in savaging Weiser as if they do not fully believe their own polls or the depth of Bennet’s support.

The Senate primary between incumbent John Hickenlooper and insurgent Julie Gonzales is not in doubt, but could still serve as a barometer. If Gonzales’s vote share is in the mid-30s or approaches 40 percent, it could foreshadow a good night for perceived outsiders and thus for Weiser. Conversely, if her tally is closer to 30 percent, it could indicate that the party establishment still holds sway, which would be good news for Bennet.

Regular readers know my view that it is past time for 30-year incumbent Diana DeGette to move on. But this is not that year. The fact that she has two challengers for her District 1 seat provides further job security by splitting the opposition vote. Moreover, both challengers, Melat Kiros and Wanda James, are wanting in many respects. This is unlikely to be close. Even as DeGette’s overly extended time in office is drawing short, whether voluntarily or at the hands of a more formidable Democratic opponent.

The race in the perpetually competitive 8th congressional district might be among the most interesting of this cycle. Prototypical Democratic centrist and legislative insider Shannon Bird confronts uber-progressive Manny Rutinel, brandishing his ethnic roots. The ads they are running against each other are brutal.

The result between Bird and Rutinel could say much about the party’s center of gravity. If the projected Democratic wave builds at all in the run-up to November, Bird would be a formidable favorite over sitting Republican Gabe Evans. While a Rutinel-Evans faceoff could complicate the Democrats’ chance to pick up a seat.

I weighed in via a recent column on the four-way Democratic primary for attorney general. The unfortunate reality is that Jena Griswold is very likely to walk away with this while her three able rivals fracture the vote among those seeking an alternative.

Colorado Democrats can then bite their tongue and hold their outrage when Trump appoints clearly unqualified loyalists to various high-level posts.

All the while, the Republican primary for governor has offered no end of amusement. It’s not the Stanley Cup, but it’s something. Comedian John Oliver dedicated a segment of his most recent show to the spectacle of Victor Marx and Scott Bottoms.

Longtime political watchers will remember Dan “11 Percent” Maes, the GOP’s nominee for governor in 2010. He was a political giant next to Marx and Bottoms. Veteran legislator, budget-writer and local government official Barb Kirkmeyer projects reason and sobriety but is diminished by sharing a stage with these two jokers.

The fact that the outcome of this primary is in doubt tells you everything you need to know about the plight of the Colorado Republican Party. Sadly, doubt is the order of the day and Kirkmeyer’s victory is not assured.

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for Colorado Politics and The Gazette. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann


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