On the last day of May, along the Arkansas River that he has been paddling for 30-plus years, Mike Harvey found himself in a kayak he would not typically use this time of year: his racing boat, which is longer, narrower and lighter. It was better suited for this very atypical start to summer. 

The goal that Sunday on the river was “to try to find enjoyment in the challenge of lacing lines through rocks,” Harvey said. “The lines are so much skinnier.” 

That’s because the water on the Arkansas is so much lower ー as it is all across Colorado’s rivers and creeks.

Heading into June, Harvey was tracking flows around 350 cubic feet per second along go-to stretches near his home in Salida. He has come to anticipate flows closer to 3,000 cfs around Memorial Day, when snow is melting from the mountains and rushing into the river. 

But following the hottest March ever recorded in Colorado, much of the state saw an astonishingly early peak runoff. It was a meager runoff coupled with historically low snowpack following the state’s “winter that never was.” 

Winter and summer are inextricably linked, Bob Walker knows. Since 1992 in Pueblo, he has sold and rented gear for the slopes and whitewater at The Edge Ski, Paddle and Pack. 

“We’ve been through this enough times to know one season affects the other, and it’s gonna be a rough go,” he said. 

But May snow and more recent rains boosted the spirits of enthusiasts, including Harvey. And so there he was in his odd boat heading into June, enjoying himself however he could, like others he saw on the Arkansas River that day. 

“It was the sort of flows you’d expect in October,” Harvey said. “But people were like, ‘Hey, it’s up a little bit! Even though it was only up like 30 cfs or something.” 

As ever, it’s a similarly hopeful tone coming out of Colorado’s rafting industry.

The industry has tracked between 500,000 and 600,000 customers in recent years. The majority of them come from out of state, spelling an annual economic impact exceeding $200 million across small, dependent economies like those in the Arkansas River Valley, America’s most rafted destination. 

Would vacationers still come for low water? 

Andy Neinas, the owner of Echo Canyon River Expeditions in Cañon City entering his 40th straight summer on the Arkansas, echoed fellow outfitters everywhere: “We dance to this music all the time.” 

Maybe not all the time; for comparable drought years, Neinas pointed to 2002, 2012 and 2018. He described 2002 as especially pivotal. 

“The industry went into that year with a lot of question marks, and we emerged from that year with a lot of answers,” he said. “2002 was the year the industry figured out how to manage a new flow regime on the rivers in Colorado.” 

Outfitters would reroute trips to more favorable, less rocky sections of rivers. Maybe sections would be shorter in length, but due to slower water, trips would be marketed at similar durations. Anticipating more in-demand and clustered “pinch points,” as Neinas called them, guides across outfitters would coordinate. And outfitters would sell other services: cabin overnights and food and drink like Neinas’s business, or more land- and air-based attractions like adventure parks and ziplines. 

Also when the water is lower and less intimidating, “inflatable kayaks become a really great option for people who are looking for more adventure,” said Alex Mickel, the longtime owner of Durango-based Mild to Wild Rafting. “They get a chance to really experience the river in a more one-on-one way, of course under our direction and instruction. It certainly ups the thrill level.” 

Many vacationers aren’t necessarily looking for the thrill of high water, Mickel added. 

“The vast majority of our clients are families, and they’re just wanting to come out and enjoy nature and connect with each other,” he said. “And a lot of times the river can be too high this time of year for them.” 

High or low, water is not the only consideration for outfitters contemplating the summer of business. 

The latest posted report on Colorado’s commercial rafting, from 2024, emphasizes “overall economic conditions” as a factor for declines in user days across rivers. Colorado River Outfitters Association reported 496,999 user days statewide in 2024, down 8.4% from the previous year and continuing a downward trend since record activity following the COVID-19 pandemic. Other than the shutdown of 2020, statewide rafting numbers from 2024 were the lowest since 2013. 

“There continues to be pressure on rafting companies to raise prices because costs such as gasoline for vehicles, payroll, insurance and everyday supplies keep rising. Higher prices tend to reduce bookings,” Colorado River Outfitters Association reported.

“Additionally, during economically challenging times, groups and families tend to make their reservations more last-minute, making staffing and logistics planning a challenge. This also results in frequent situations where there are no openings for a day at the last minute.”

Economic challenges persist, impacting Colorado tourism beyond the whitewater sector. 

“Yes, we have the added variable of water,” Neinas said, “but guests are having a great time.” 

Would water last to grant such a time through the summer? It’s a question at the start of the season, with flows a fraction of what might be expected at some popular stretches.

Along Clear Creek near his home in Golden, Nik White has tracked flows around 230 cfs. 

“In a typical year, we’d see 700, 900, maybe 1,400, something like that,” he said. “Being at 230 at peak, yeah, that’s gonna be pretty darn low.” 

White is a kayaking instructor who serves as the access and conservation director for nonprofit advocacy group Colorado Whitewater. He has heard several group members talk about taking river trips away from the state. White gets it. 

But no, “I don’t think we’ll get to the point where there’s no whitewater industry in Colorado,” he said. 

Though, higher up Clear Creek in Idaho Springs, a short season was the fear of two companies that notified the town they would not be operating this summer. 

“I can’t think of a year where that’s ever happened,” said Chuck Harmon, the mayor and longtime resident. 

The news was a blow to the man who knows how vital every rafting company is to his town’s overall well-being. “We really feel it,” Harmon said. “When rafting season starts, the cash registers start ringing.”

Ahead of Memorial Day, the season started with a party at a local brewery, where Harmon visited with business owners and guides. The mood was “cautiously optimistic,” he said. “Simply because it was looking horrific in the beginning of May.” 

Some surprise snow and ensuing rains helped, to the delight of enthusiasts and business owners elsewhere in Colorado. That includes Harvey, the longtime Arkansas River kayaker. He’s also the visionary behind Salida’s surf wave and owner of Badfish Surf Shop. 

Harvey is buoyed by a “super” El Nino predicted to continue a wet trend in Colorado, potentially fueling rivers longer. 

Still, “there’s nothing like a magic bullet that’s gonna save us,” Harvey said. “You just can’t escape the very simple fact that it has to snow in the winter for there to be enough water in the summer.” 

It is believed there is not enough to allow for a boost that boaters, outfitters and the Arkansas River Valley’s broader economy have counted on between July 1 and Aug. 15. 

Since 1991, when the Voluntary Flow Management Program was established, regulators have released water from Twin Lakes down to Pueblo Reservoir for the sake of recreation. That is not expected this summer, with agricultural and municipal needs taking priority. 

Harvey and other recreation types sound understanding. 

“It’s kind of like, how many stages of grief, you know?” Harvey said. “We’re into whatever the acceptance part is. It just is what it is.” 

Business is down at his surf shop, and he worries business will be down across his hometown. “Everyone’s coming out of a tough winter with less skier traffic, and now it’s gonna be a tough summer,” Harvey said.

But a summer tradition must go on in Salida: The annual FIBArk festival returns this month, a weekend of various races on the water. Harvey expects several will be adjusted or canceled. 

But low water means the wave in town is much calmer, allowing for a new youth bodyboarding contest. Also new is the “duckie cross:” a sprint through the whitewater park. 

People can still expect the familiar, joyous beach scene, Harvey said. “The music will still be happening. The party will still be happening.”