CRONIN & LOEVY | Early returns on Biden presidency
President Joe Biden came to the White House with little or no public policy mandate. The election of 2020 was primarily a referendum on whether voters approved or disapproved of Donald Trump’s way of governing.
Most of those who voted for Trump in 2016 voted for him again in 2020. In fact, he won about 11 million additional votes in 2020. But Biden benefitted from high voter turnout and especially strong support from younger Americans and suburban women. Backlash against Trump played a more important role than any embrace of Biden’s specific public policies.
Noteworthy, too, is that even though Trump was soundly defeated in the popular vote, Republicans added about 14 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and won a few more state legislatures than did Democrats. Trump lost for himself, but neither party triumphed totally in 2020.
Biden and his advisers rightly made the war against Covid-19 their top priority. The Trump administration deserves credit for encouraging the research and development of vaccines, but Trump was politically damaged by his many confusing and sometimes incoherent messages about the tragic pandemic. Biden has made bold claims of how people who wanted vaccines would be able to get them by this summer. His progress on that pledge has been impressive.
As Biden came to the Oval Office, the United States economy was in rough shape – mostly due to the worldwide Coronavirus pandemic. Biden and his economic advisers developed a sweeping and expensive relief package. It won no Republican support in Congress, yet it was popular with most Americans. It passed and went immediately into effect.
President Biden’s proposed jobs and infrastructure package is equally sweeping and expensive. Again, most Americans understand the need to address the massive deferred maintenance on highways, waterways, airports, bridges, and the electric power grid. There also are needed new investments in Research and Development, manufacturing, quantum computers, etc.
But Biden will have to trim and better target some of his plans in an effort to win Republican support. A much compromised infrastructure program will probably be approved this summer.
Biden acted swiftly to nominate and win confirmation for his Cabinet of appointed officials. He had to withdraw his nominee for director of the Office of Management and Budget. Several of his appointments, such as Garland at Justice, Yellin at Treasury, Burns as CIA Director, Buttigieg at Transportation, and Vilsack at Agriculture, have won praise.
Biden also won praise for quickly recruiting competent health and medical advisers to handle the Coronavirus problem.
But Joe Biden still has another one thousand or so nominations to make, including dozens of ambassadors to foreign nations. The Senate confirmation process for these positions has been painfully slow for both Republican and Democratic presidencies in recent times.
One of Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s greatest appointments during World War II was talented and highly respected Republican Henry Stimson as Secretary of War. This was astute politics, and Stimson proved to be an invaluable adviser. President Biden’s administration, as far as we can discern, has recruited no highly visible Republican, or even independent, to the top ranks. John F. Kennedy was another Democratic president who put Republicans in key positions.
Tax plans for Joe Biden are still in the development stage. Tax increases on corporations and people earning more than $400,000 per year are likely, yet the projected increases in money from this are unlikely to fund the big spending programs this president is launching.
A controversial wealth tax is championed by leftish Democrats. A relatively novel internationally administered tax on multi-national corporations could have more bipartisan support and is likely to be pushed by the Biden administration.
Biden’s decision to withdraw the final troops from Afghanistan was both the most courageous and controversial of his early decisions. It was not a surprise. Biden has long been less supportive of that military effort than most of his party allies, including former President Barack Obama. Former President Donald Trump made this same decision. Libertarians like U.S. Senator Rand Paul favor this decision.
Americans are split on the war in Afghanistan. Most people know there is a civil war going on in that country, and U.S. troops have prevented it from becoming a disaster. But most Americans also understand that — unlike in South Korea or Germany, where we have kept U.S. troops for decades — the governing elites in Kabul appear to be either corrupt or incompetent, or perhaps both. This has left many Americans believing we are in a never-ending no-win situation, and should get out.
The larger question is how much of a world policeman can the United States be. Much of the money spent in Afghanistan could have been invested in making America’s economy and infrastructure more world competitive. Biden, more than anyone, realizes pulling out of Afghanistan was a high risk decision.
The Biden administration hurt itself and the country by too quickly signaling changes of policy on border security. Trump may have overdone closing the border, especially with all his rhetoric on the wall and “invading caravans.” Biden and his people sent confusing messages on this, and the result has been one of his biggest first three months’ problems. There are still thousands of children held in dreadful conditions at the border.
Biden has appointed a Supreme Court Study Commission. The new president understands that changing the number of Supreme Court justices from nine should not be done. He was forced to appoint the study commission by liberal supporters. There might be popular support for an 18-year term limit on Supreme Court justices. We predict that Biden will shy away from any form of Supreme Court reform, which will disappoint avid Supreme Court reform supporters.
President Biden has rightly opposed calls for “defunding the police.” He did not do this as forcefully as he could have. Defunding the police is an irresponsible proposal. Better police recruiting and training does make sense. “Reinventing” police operations makes sense. Although these policies and programs are primarily a state and local government responsibility, desired improvements could use U.S. Government support, leadership, and money.
Joe Biden’s 53 to 55 percent approval ratings as a new president compare favorably to those of George W. Bush and Bill Clinton at the end of their first three months in the White House. Biden’s ratings, however, are at least ten percentage points above where Donald Trump was at this point in his presidency. On the other hand, Biden is ten points lower than Barack Obama after three months.
What is notable in Biden’s approval ratings is that the partisan divide is so high. Biden has unusually high support among Democrats contrasted with very low support from Republicans.
Biden has not had much of a “honeymoon” in the first three months of his presidency. His prospects for winning bipartisan support in the Congress seem slim. The stock market has climbed nearly 10 percent, while unemployment is now about 6 percent as opposed to over 14 percent one year ago. And thankfully the economy is gradually opening up. Things are getting better, but the presidency remains an almost impossibly tough assignment. Biden’s major political asset right now is that his party is less split on issues than the GOP. As Republican pundits Karl Rove and Peggy Noonan have put it: The Republicans need stronger positive messages and effective messengers. At the moment they have neither.
Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy were longtime political science professors at Colorado College who write regularly on national and Colorado politics.

