Colorado is headed into what could be one of its strongest El Niño summers on record, a shift expected to bring above‑average monsoon moisture, though not enough to erase the state’s long‑running drought.

That was the assessment on Tuesday from the Water Conditions Monitoring Committee, a group of state and federal water officials and local water managers.

Russ Schumacher, the state climatologist based at Colorado State University’s Colorado Climate Center, said the summer monsoon season, which could start as soon as the second week of July, will be wetter than average and possibly one of the strongest El Niños that Colorado has ever had.

That means Colorado is less likely to stay in long-term drought conditions.

“We’re happy to see it here, but a lot of places won’t be happy,” Schumacher said.

The moisture could bring record-high temperatures, too.

Part of the reason for a Super El Niño — and the high temperatures that come with it — is temperature change, according to Schumacher.

An El Niño occurs when temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are 0.5°C above average for several consecutive months, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Its impact is felt most strongly during the winter months, but it can also cause coastal flooding, particularly on the West Coast.

As for temperatures, Schumacher said the current water year — Oct. 1 through this week — has been by far the warmest on record and among the top 10 driest in the state.

A report from Nagam Bell of the Natural Resources Conservation Service showed the state of Colorado’s reservoirs and soil conditions as the first storms from El Niño are on the horizon.

Colorado’s snowpack is gone, she said, about 36 days earlier than normal.

Reservoirs around the state are at 75% of median, Bell reported, but that’s higher, in part, due to the storms that hit southwestern Colorado last fall. Most western slope reservoirs are lower than usual, she added.

June’s precipitation to date is dismal, she indicated, showing the state has seen only 14% of the median precipitation it should expect for this time of year.

Experts who keep an eye on local reservoirs and water use are also optimistic about the El Niño forecast.

Denver Water’s Nathan Elder said the reservoirs they rely on are 81% full, about 2% above where they expected them to be in June.

Northern Water’s Emily Carbone said their storage, at 75%, is the lowest since 2014, and they expect the shortages to increase over the summer.

Drew Beckwith at the City of Westminster struck a more optimistic tone: With local storage at 96% of capacity, they’re keeping their fingers crossed for a strong El Niño summer.

Snowpack in Colorado had peaked at about 58% of normal — and weeks earlier than usual. An unusually warm March accelerated the melt, and parched soils will absorb much of that runoff before it ever reaches streams and reservoirs — leaving less water flowing downstream.

The snowpack doesn’t just feed the Colorado River. It supplies rivers across the region, including the South Platte, which provides water to much of the Denver metro area. But the already strained Colorado River is where the impact is most visible, experts have said.

The Colorado River has always cycled through wet and dry years. But over the past two decades, prolonged drought and rising temperatures have reduced the river’s overall flow — a trend water experts say is unlikely to reverse.

The stakes extend far beyond Colorado.

In Arizona, roughly 85% of residents live in cities that rely, at least in part, on the river.

“The snowpack was destroyed by the temperatures and lack of precipitation the likes of which have never occurred in the basin,” Brad Udall, senior water and climate research scholar at Colorado State University’s Colorado Water Center, earlier said.

Udall added, “The river basin was already in dire straits. This only makes it worse.”

In response, cities across the Denver metro region have imposed water restrictions — a strategy adopted so early in the year that it reflects how quickly conditions have deteriorated.

“By many measures, it’s the worst snowpack that we’ve seen,” Nathan Elder, manager of water supply with Denver Water, earlier said. “The numbers really are alarming.”

Reporter Nico Brambila contributed to this article.