With just one seat needed for Colorado Democrats to secure a supermajority in the Senate, this year’s election is pivotal.

If House Democrats stay above the two-thirds of the seats won in the last election, the party will hold supermajorities in both chambers. 

Democrats already have firm control of the levers of power at the state Capitol, given its members occupy all of the statewide seats, including the governor’s office, plus the majority in both chambers.

Having a supermajority in both chambers would provide Democrats with a veto-proof majority.

However, Democratic leaders are steering the conversation away from numbers and focusing on increasing diversity and representation within the caucus. Their goal, they said, is to elect a wider variety of voices to better reflect the diverse needs of Colorado’s communities.

Key races to watch 

Coming into the final months of the election, there are some vulnerable seats in districts that are nearly even between Republican and Democrats.

Here are the contests that could change the makeup of the Senate this upcoming session.

• Senate District 5: This district is currently held by Republican Sen. Perry Will, who is not seeking reelection. Rep. Marc Catlin of Montrose will face Democratic challenger Cole Buerger of Glenwood Springs. The district leans 3% in the GOP’s favor, according to data compiled by the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission. 

• Senate District 6: Republican incumbent Sen. Cleave Simpson, of Alamosa, is running against Democrat Vivian Smotherman, of Durango, in this district, which includes southwestern Colorado from the Utah state line to Alamosa. The district leans 1% in Democrats’ favor.

• Senate District 12: With current Republican Sen. Bob Gardner term-limited, this district will see Colorado Springs Democratic Rep. Marc Snyder facing El Paso County Commissioner Stan VanderWerf. This district, which includes eastern Colorado Springs and Fountain, has historically leaned 2% in Republicans’ favor.

• Senate District 13: Stretching from Brighton to Greeley, this district is currently represented by Democratic Sen. Kevin Priola, who is term limited. Priola started his legislative career as a Republican but switched parties in 2022. Republican Scott Bright, a business owner from Platteville, will face Democrat Matt Johnston, a member of Brighton City Council. The district leans 4% in the GOP’s favor.

• Senate District 16: Centennial incumbent Sen. Chris Kolker will compete against Republican challenger Robyn Carnes, also of Centennial, for this seat, which includes parts of Littleton and Centennial. Historical election data does not show a clear advantage for either party in this district.

Democratic leader: Diversity and bipartisanship a bigger priority 

Senate Majority Leader Sen. Robert Rodriguez, D-Denver, said he isn’t interested in playing the numbers game, even with the possibility of a supermajority looming. 

“I’m not really looking at supermajorities or anything like that,” he said. “For me, it’s about getting my colleagues elected so that we can do stuff for the state of Colorado.”

Rodriguez said that while losing or gaining seats is important for a caucus’s ability to pass legislation, his primary focus is on boosting representation from different parts of the state, especially rural districts. 

He mentioned Sens. Dylan Roberts, D-Frisco, Janice Marchman, D-Loveland, and Sonya Jaquez Lewis, D-Lafayette, as legislators who represent rural voters who have helped strengthen the party’s understanding of rural and mountain life, along with the needs and priorities of constituents outside the Denver metro area. 

Having rural legislators in the party has also helped Democrats collaborate with the mostly-rural Republican caucus on a number of bipartisan initiatives, he said. Rodriguez estimated that about 85% of the bills passed during the 2024 session were sponsored by both Democratic and Republican legislators.

As majority leader, he said, his top concern is ensuring his members work together to do the most they can for Coloradans, regardless of party. 

Republicans are ‘optimistic’ they won’t lose any seats

Gardner, the assistant minority leader, said it is “crucial” for his party to at least maintain its 12 seats in the Senate. This will prevent the Democrats from gaining a supermajority that would, in turn, allow them to “suspend rules and do things procedurally that they otherwise would not be able to do.” 

“Keeping those seats is going to take a lot of work,” Gardner said. “But we are working hard fundraising for our candidates and our races both alongside them on their campaigns.”

Gardner said even some Democrats in the Senate likely oppose a  supermajority because of the potential impact it could have on efforts to maintain bipartisanship in the upcoming coming session.

“I think, even within the Democratic Party, there are those who privately say that having a supermajority in both chambers is not good for public policy in Colorado,” he said. “I don’t think it promotes bipartisanship.”

“Look at the Colorado House and how divisive and contentious the relationships have been there in the past two years when there’s been a supermajority,” Gardner said. “Ironically, not only does having a supermajority make it difficult for bipartisan relationships, but it creates a lot of difficulties within their own caucus.”

Rodriguez said while he hasn’t closely followed the infighting within the House Democratic caucus, handling internal disagreements is a key priority for him as majority leader. 

“Even with a larger caucus or a supermajority, I don’t think that guarantees that we’re gonna align on everything,” he said. “These are all different districts with different needs that need to be addressed.”

Disagreements are not always a bad thing, Rodriguez said, adding they are a crucial part of the legislative process. 

“I believe in a robust discussion of policies,” he said. “Even a couple of years ago, when we increased our majority from what we had before, the narrative got to be more, ‘Well, we’re gonna fight amongst ourselves more because of that.’ And I don’t think that’s something to shy away from. It’s just learning to have those conversations and differences respectably and understanding that, sometimes, you just agree to disagree. That’s the hope I always have with the caucus.”

Gardner, whose final term ends with the beginning of the January 2025 session, said he’s confident in both the current members of his caucus and the candidates running for office this November. 

“What I see is prospects for a very cohesive group of legislators,” he said. “There is always going to be disagreements within caucuses and within parties, but I think we can look forward to very strong and cohesive Republican caucuses going forward. That’s where we’ve chosen to concentrate our efforts and energy.”