Republicans have dug themselves into a very deep hole. Their shovel has turned into an excavator. This last month’s voter registration numbers by state Senate districts show GOP registration losses from -1.7% to – 7.1% by district since 2016. Democrats have lost registrations also, but at a much lower rate ranging from -.04% to -4.8%.

The biggest Republican registration loss is in SD-4 in Douglas County. State Sen. Jim Smallwood represents the district. He still has a 23% registration lead over the Democrats, but unaffiliateds (UAFs) have grown from 31.5% in 2016 to 39.2% in the heart of metro Denver Republican country.

The biggest Democratic registration losses are in term-limited state Sen. Larry Crowder’s SD-35 in south central Colorado. UAF’s have increased registrations by 6.4%, the GOP has lost 1.7%, and Democrats are down 4.8%. Republicans must hold onto this open Senate seat. Crowder has a reputation as a GOP moderate and could be a role model for the party.

About 10 years ago when redistricting last occurred, SD-27, the seat currently held by retiring state Senator Jack Tate, showed voter registration at 41.42% for the GOP to 29.05% for the Dems to 28.98% for UAFs. Today, the registration is 40.5% UAF, 29.7% GOP, and 28.5% Dem.

Democrat Chris Kolker ran for SD-27 in 2016 and lost by 374 votes when GOP registration was 36.3% to Dem 28.9%. Now he’s running against Republican Suzanne Staiert, who worked as deputy secretary of state under moderate Republican Wayne Williams. Tate is one of the more centrist Republicans in the state Senate caucus. Staiert is pitching herself as a practical Republican. Kolker is a former teacher and current financial planner relying on his grassroots organization to carry him to election. Kolker has raised $64,499 so far to Staiert’s $32,303. Republicans must hold this seat to have any heft in the next General Assembly.

State Sen. Kevin Priola, up against a 7% Democratic voter registration lead in his SD-25 in 2016, pulled out a great win. The spread is about the same this year. Priola will no doubt appeal to UAF’s who have increased their registrations to 42.2%, a large majority over both parties. It may be that Democrats leave Priola alone since he often votes their way on big bills. They won’t need that seat to keep their majority.

SD-19, a seat now held by state Sen. Rachel Zenzinger, used to be the most competitive in the state, rocking back and forth between the parties. Today, voter registration is 5% plus to the Democrats, not a huge number but enough to make it very tough for conservatives to win. Zenzinger has $148,000+ more in contributions than her opponent Republican Lynn Gerber. The Democrat is shy of the $500,000+ raised by state Sen. Tammy Story in 2016, but she probably has enough.

Two seats are uncontested in the Senate, and both will go to the Democrats. On the House side, 12 seats are uncontested, 10 for Democrats and two for Republicans.

Eleven House seats out of 65 appear close, sort of. A good example of the GOP dilemma is in HD-27, currently held by Democrat Brianna Titone. Voter registration is split almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats. In 2011, Republicans held an 8% advantage. Republican Vicki Pyne, a longtime resident of Arvada and community activist, has raised $22,000+ to Titone’s $59,000+. The GOP will need to do more fundraising to give their strongest contender a chance.

HD-25 used to be a reliable Republican seat. Even today, GOP registration remains 3% higher than the Democrats’, though UAFs have moved up to 42.3% of voters. Incumbent Lisa Cutter faces a challenge from former Jeffco County Commissioner Don Rosier. If money talks, then Cutter will take the district as she’s raised $43,000 more than her opponent.

Minority Leader Patrick Neville is still leader of the House Republican caucus. His brother does fundraising for Republicans. Neville has collected $0 in contributions in 2020 according to his reports since January 15. He has a $14,837 carryover balance. He’s the only incumbent GOP candidate with $0 in contributions. He’ll no doubt win, but his reporting speaks volumes about the current state of the Republican party in Colorado.