OPINION | We’ve only begun to track the true toll of COVID-19 — and of our response to it

After a wobbly start, governments at all levels seem to be doing a better job of tracking and reporting COVID-19 infection rates and deaths. You can’t peruse the news, in print or online, without seeing the tragic tally creep higher each day.
Statistics are tricky little devils, so an alert reader must parse the numbers with care and put them in context. But at least the numbers are out there now. And they’re a good way to remind us that human lives are riding on how we weather the storm and get back to “normal,” whatever that means. But the relentless focus on just one set of metrics, as important as they are, also can tend to encourage a certain tunnel vision, or maybe it’s more like myopia, obscuring our ability to see the “big picture” and know the entirety of what we’re dealing with.
We understandably want to know who is sick, who has died, how the outbreak is evolving and where the “hot zones” are. But too tight of a focus on just that data – too much focus on the “death count,” as callous as that phrase may sound – may blind us to the wider but also real repercussions that stem not just from the virus but from our response to the virus.??There’s been an earthquake. We’re looking almost exclusively at the epicenter, however, trying to triage the immediate casualties, while forgetting or ignoring the aftershocks rippling through wider society. Yes, our immediate focus needs to be on retrieving whom we can from the rubble at the point of greatest impact. But we can’t for long ignore the cracks, strains and fissures the aftershocks have left in other buildings and structures many miles away from the epicenter. The damage hidden there, though not immediately apparent, will also in time topple those structures if not addressed.
Plunging tax revenues, spiking unemployment claims, a sudden change in state GDP; these commonly used metrics all will help us grasp the larger implications. These are “lagging indicators” that will roll in over time, like waves on a beach. But they’re reasonably accurate and reliable; something firm we can grab onto in the storm.
Other social impacts are harder to find metrics for, unless you make the effort. And I think Colorado should make that effort if our aim is to see the crisis completely and comprehensively, taking into account not just the human casualties at the epicenter but the economic and social consequences caused by the aftershocks.
I’m agnostic for now on whether state-mandated business closures and stay-at-home orders will do more overall harm than good. Will we cure the disease but kill the patient? I fear that we will, but we’re in uncharted waters and those at the helm (like President Trump and Gov. Polis) admittedly have tough calls to make. Only the passage of time and a comprehensive look at all available metrics will answer that larger question. However, we won’t have all those metrics unless we make collecting them a priority.
Therefore, my suggestion is for the governor to begin tracking and reporting an additional set of metrics as we move forward so we don’t fall prey to tunnel vision and can grasp the situation comprehensively. Here’s my starter list of suggested indicators. I believe all these, except perhaps for the homelessness number, are there for the unearthing if we dig for them.
We must also track and report: ?
? Business closures
? Bankruptcies (business and personal)
? Divorces
? Suicides
? Domestic abuse calls and cases
? Crime trends
? Homeless trends
? Pet and livestock abandonment cases
Others may have additional metrics to suggest. These for me touch on some of the most obvious social and economic consequences we’re likely to see as time goes by. But I really believe the governor will be doing Coloradans a disservice if these metrics aren’t as closely monitored as COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities.
Paige is a writer and communications consultant who lives in Colorado Springs. He is a former communications director for the Colorado Senate Majority Office and a former editorial page editor at the Colorado Springs Gazette.

