The primaries are about 60 days away. The large majority of statewide races will be decided on June 30. Those contests will be between moderate and progressive Democrats and moderate to super-conservative Republicans.

Analysis of voter registrations does not look pretty for either party. Coloradans are not reupping or registering in either party. The sum of Democratic-plus-Republican voters today does not exceed the total number of unaffiliateds.

Here are the numbers:

Total active Democratic voters — 1,003,187

Total active Republicans — 910,438

Total active unaffiliateds — 2,032,366

That’s 118,741-plus to unaffiliated voters over the combination of Democrats and GOPers. Both parties would do back flips for unaffiliated numbers.

The most discouraging element for traditional parties is the registration loss trend. The numbers defecting from both parties have steadily increased since 2024. Every month, the trend line was growth to unaffiliateds and losses to the parties.

Here’s a rundown: Since 2024, the GOP has declined by 16% in enrollments of voters 18-24. The party has lost registrations in every age group except 65-to-75-plus, where Republicans grew by about 3%.

The implications are not good: Republicans are losing registrations big at the young end and slightly winning at the old end when they will ultimately lose voters to death. The total decline among Republicans is 1.7%.

Democrats are doing worse in voters lost, except they have a larger base to begin with. They’ve also lost 16% of registered voters between 18-24 since 2024. Their only gain is among the cohort 75-plus. The total decline among Democrats is 3.7%.

Based on the registration numbers of both Democrats and Republicans, the only voters with some affinity for the parties are older: 65-plus. Both parties are facing a gut check as to how they will attract voters younger than 65 to their blue or red colors.

Unlike the two traditional parties, unaffiliateds have seen growth of 10% among registered voters 18-24. Unaffiliateds are the only cohort among the three dominant categories that has grown in registration in every age category, including a 20.8% growth at 75-plus. The implication here is many older voters are phasing out of their affiliations along with the young.

Some political experts explain the registration shifts are due to offering voter registration at DMVs. That explanation may work for younger voters but it’s unlikely to account for changes in voters 75-plus who have spent most of their years in a two-party regime.

More complications arise when examining registrations by gender. Democrats are currently a party comprising 60% women to 40% men. Republicans and unaffiliateds are closer in registrations by gender: 47% women to 53% men in the GOP; 48% women to 52% men among unaffiliateds. It appears losses of registrations in the Democratic party are mostly among men.

The state House of Representatives will have about 45 to 50 out of 65 seats that lean to one party or the other. These seats will be decided in the primaries. Only half of the state Senate of 35 members is up for re-election this year. Of those seats, a majority will also be decided in primaries.

The suburbs will be where seats will be most competitive in the general election, especially in Jefferson, Larimer and Arapahoe counties. Urban centers, some suburbs and rural districts will likely have the least competitive races. That is, elections in Denver and Boulder will be decided in Democratic primaries, and elections in Weld, El Paso, and Douglas counties and rural areas will mostly be decided in Republican primaries. Pueblo, which used to be a Democratic stronghold, will be up for grabs, as will parts of Adams County.

The governor’s race in the Democratic Party will likely decide the general election. U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser are duking it out for the nomination.

Their challenge is to give Democrats and unaffiliateds who choose to vote in the Democratic primary a reason to support them as the party hasn’t done enough to provide impetus. At this time, it appears the Republican primary will be closed to unaffiliateds.

A recent poll conducted by Colorado Polling Institute shows Coloradans have soured on whether the state is on the right or wrong track. Only 6% say “definitely” right track; 31% say “definitely” wrong track.

Voters don’t like the cost of living, cost of housing and cost of taxes. These issues have no doubt gotten worse for voters with the war on Iran and consequent rising prices. A large majority of voters do like TABOR as a control on taxes or as a tool to let them vote on tax increases.

The issues connecting the cost of living and cost of housing are challenging, especially given the state’s budget situation. Health care is a significant driver of cost of living, and residential density restrictions affect housing costs. Candidates from both parties will have to decide how ambitious they will be on attacking these problems. Coloradans seem ready for big ideas, not change by quarter inches.

Paula Noonan owns Colorado Capitol Watch, the state’s premier legislature tracking platform.