WELD COUNTY, Colorado — The touch-and-go race for House control in the Nov. 3 midterm elections could very well be decided in places like this wind-swept stretch of Interstate 25. Specifically, at gas stations in this rapidly growing area north of Denver, which is evolving from rural, agricultural roots into a key commuter region.

In Weld County, along the Wyoming and Nebraska state lines, spiking gas prices are causing sticker shock among drivers. Six-plus months out from Election Day, that puts increased pressure on Republicans, as Democrats claw for the three seats — and in their view, hopefully many more — needed to win the House majority.

The highway, part of Colorado’s primary north-south artery, sits squarely in an uber-competitive House district crucial to both parties’ House majority plans. To be sure, surging gasoline prices aren’t the only issue that will decide whether freshman Rep. Gabe Evans, R-CO, wins a second term in the 8th Congressional District. The congressman’s campaign website touts his fight “to secure the border, strengthen public safety, and make life more affordable for hardworking Coloradans.”

But it’s that last agenda item that has become so politically tricky, as gas prices are the ultimate pocketbook issue. And as the war in Iran continues, even President Donald Trump recently admitted that soaring gas prices could go “a little bit higher” before the midterm elections.

Drivers spending $30 or more more than usual when pumping gas has become a major political headache for Evans in this swing district. Where, in 2024, voters backed Trump over Democratic rival Kamala Harris 49.6% to 47.8% while then-state Rep. Evans beat an incumbent freshman House Democrat.

“I’m just, unfortunately, just paying more for gas, for day to day. It sucks,” Austin M., a 28-year-old from Loveland, Colorado, told the Washington Examiner while filling his truck with gas. 

Wallet strain 

Gas price shocks date back to early March, when Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, blocking thousands of tankers from entering or exiting the Persian Gulf. That’s preventing tens of millions of barrels of crude and other products from passing through each day. 

Before the war began, roughly 20 million barrels passed through the Middle East waterway each day, equivalent to around one-fifth of global demand. 

Crude oil is the largest component of the retail price of gasoline, making up around 50% of the final price. As a result, major disruptions to global crude supply chains have sent shockwaves through national gasoline prices. Prices at the pump have shot above $4 a gallon in just one month. 

In Colorado, the average cost of gasoline was around $3.77 per gallon as of April 6. While this is below the national average of $4.12, it is still a more than $1 hike compared to early February, when the state’s average remained around $2.72 per gallon. 

The sharp price hikes are straining drivers’ wallets, causing some to rethink how often they hit the roads and even completely change their lifestyles. 

Austin M., the motorist from Loveland, Colorado, about 46 miles north of Denver, pointed out that gas prices in the state are not as drastic as those seen in states such as California. The Golden State average sat just below $6 per gallon in early April. However, higher fuel costs were a significant reason he decided to shut down his trucking company in recent weeks. 

At another gas station off Interstate 25, Kristy Hutson, 41, from Aurora, Colorado, told the Washington Examiner she is paying more than $60 to fill up her work and personal vehicles. 

Hutson, who works for a construction services company, said that it previously cost $70 to fill up her work truck’s tank every day. It’s now around $110. It also costs Hutson roughly $70 to fill her personal car, up from around $40. 

Higher gasoline prices can be directly traced to major oil disruptions in the Middle East, brought on by the war in Iran. 

As of April 6, the average price of gas nationwide is now at $4.119 per gallon. The average price of diesel also sat at $5.618, just 20 cents below the record set in 2022, which was driven by post-COVID-19 demand and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Western states such as Colorado have minimal regional public transportation systems, forcing residents to rely on their own vehicles to get to and from work, doctors’ appointments, grocery stores, and more. While motorists feel the pressure from higher prices, a growing consensus says there is not much they can do to alleviate the pain as Americans continue to live their lives. 

“People are just doing the basic behaviors right now,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told the Washington Examiner in early April. 

“Nobody’s really taking vacations or doing road trips because it’s not warm enough yet. So there’s not an opportunity to reduce demand right now like there might be in summer,” he said. 

Until consumption slows, De Haan warned that prices will keep rising, with gasoline potentially reaching 2022 levels by the end of the month. 

A tight race 

It’s here, in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, where soaring gas prices could cost House Republicans a crucial seat in their bid to hold the majority. Evans, 39, has demonstrated serious political chops since winning a state House seat in 2022. Two years later, he flipped the district red, even as then-Vice President Harris easily beat Trump in Colorado, 54% to 43%.

Evans’s 2026 reelection bid is expected to be a tight race no matter who the Democrats nominate. Evans in 2024 beat then-Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo 49% to 48.2%, a difference of 2,449 votes out of 333,316 cast. Caraveo is running to retake the seat.

The 2026 Democratic field is getting crowded, with state Rep. Manny Rutinel and former state Rep. Shannon Bird leading in fundraising for the 8th District so far. Though first-time candidate and Army veteran Evan Munsing believes he has a real shot at unseating Evans. 

Munsing, who lives in Thornton, just outside Denver, was the first candidate to qualify for the Democratic primary in February after submitting sufficient petition signatures. 

During an interview with the Washington Examiner at the end of March in Thornton, Colorado, Munsing explained that as a fellow military veteran, he can go toe-to-toe with Evans. Before running for office, Evans spent 12 years “in the U.S. Army and Colorado Army National Guard as a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter pilot and company commander,” per his campaign website. “He completed a combat deployment to the Middle East and responded to wildfires and search and rescues throughout Colorado.”

Munsing explained that there is discontent among independent and conservative residents in the district over Trump leading the United States into a war with Iran, an operation that has been supported by Evans. 

Evans, in a phone interview, said he’s confident about winning reelection. Voters know about his record and public service, which includes over a decade as a police officer in Arvada, a 125,000-person city northwest of downtown Denver.

As for rising gas prices, he referenced the record-high national average that occurred during former President Joe Biden’s single term. In June 2022, prices reached over $5 per gallon. By August, however, prices had fallen below $4.

“The only reason people know the gas prices are back to Biden-era levels is because Republican policies make energy more affordable,” Evans told the Washington Examiner at the end of March. 

“For the last three-and-a-half weeks or so, with the events going on over in Iran, gas prices have spiked,” he added. “But we also know that the situation in the Middle East is going to get wrapped up here soon. And so as soon as that situation is resolved, I think again you’re going to see gas prices go right down.”

Evans did not offer a specific timeline for how long it could take for prices to tick back down. But added, “by election time, gas prices are going be right back to where people want to see them.” 

Shaping voter behaviors 

How significantly higher gasoline prices seen this spring will influence the November election results remains an open question, though research suggests there will be at least some small impact. 

A 2022 study by economists from Harvard University, the Financial Markets Group, and the World Bank found a correlation between higher oil prices and voters’ intentions to vote for an incumbent party. 

The study found that a roughly 1% increase in oil prices was associated with a 0.4 percentage point reduction in support for the incumbent party. This might seem minuscule; however, a margin that small could still have a substantial effect in a race like the 8th Congressional District.

Many voters in the district and surrounding areas have already confirmed that surging prices will affect how they cast their ballots in a few months. 

“Of course, absolutely,” said 27-year-old Cynthia L. from Greeley, Colorado. 

“I think [gasoline is] like, one of the biggest things I spend my money on right now,” 22-year-old Ayla T., also from Greeley, told the Washington Examiner. “It’s really important to me because if I don’t have my car, I have no lifeline.” 

Meanwhile, several self-proclaimed Trump supporters appear to hold a much more accepting perspective regarding the high prices. 

“I’m not going to be happy if they escalate,” Christina Forman, a truck driver who lives in Boulder County, said. “It’s not going to change the way I vote, absolutely not. It might change my day-to-day routine.” 

Forman told the Washington Examiner that the high prices were “absolutely” worth it for Trump’s overall agenda, saying she would pay “double.”

“I understand that our fuel prices have escalated. But guess what didn’t escalate. My interest rate on my mortgage went down 2.5% this year,” she said. 

Though as gasoline prices tick up, continuing to influence the costs of other goods and services, not all Trump voters agree. 

From a gas station along U.S. Route 34, Ricky Castro, a 35-year-old Trump voter who lives in Denver, said he likely spends around $1,200 a month on gasoline as he works as a medical courier.

Castro said he isn’t happy with Trump, wasn’t happy with Biden, and remains dissatisfied with both Republicans and Democrats, as both parties struggle to come to any agreement on how to address the high cost of living. 

“The question that people should ask right now is, ‘What is it that our government is doing for us to better the economy?’ Because right now, it doesn’t matter who’s in office, it keeps getting worse and worse,” he said.

Callie Patteson (@CalliePatteson) is an energy and environment reporter for the Washington Examiner.