The question of Taiwan continues to bear down, never quite occupying the forefront of collective international thought — at least not for long, but permanently lingering in our peripheral vision. A constant storm warning, but just distant enough to lull us into an undeserved sense of security.

There are, in fact, several questions surrounding Taiwan, but the biggest is what will the United States do in the event of communist Chinese aggression? I have just returned from my second trip to the island, which has been referred to at times as “the West Berlin of China,” and remain convinced, as the Taiwanese for the most part do, it is not a matter of “if” but “when” the People’s Republic will make the decisive move. What that move might be, exactly, remains a matter of conjecture: Invasion? Blockade? A nuclear-backed ultimatum to Taipei to stand down their military and prepare to receive a delegation from Beijing and hand over control of the government? Some combination? There are wild cards present in any of the possible scenarios, but the largest is the response of the U.S. Pacific fleet.

In any case, it is a rather sure bet the PRC will do something — the Chinese Communist Party has made that quite clear, backed up by the incessant barrage of military exercises, incursions into Taiwanese airspace, cyber attacks, multi-media disinformation campaigns, diplomatic and economic coercion, and so on. Their motivation? Yes, there is the historical embarrassment of Chiang Kai-shek’s nationalists relocating the Republic of China to the island back in 1949 and the concomitant ideological imperative; and yes, they may want access to Taiwan’s vaunted semiconductor manufacturing capability; but even more they want Taiwan the island, which occupies a coveted geopolitical position — the “first island chain,” possession of which is necessary for the PRC to establish any sort of real naval presence or foothold in the western Pacific. This moves China’s motives from merely irredentist to expansionist.

What Taiwan most desires is a formal voice in international councils and organizations, such as the United Nations, or the International Civil Aviation Organization. One can question why Taiwan would want so badly to be a part of the UN, alongside such global gems as North Korea, Iran, Cuba, Russia, red China, and, probably someday soon, a Hamas-controlled “Palestine”. This is the same organization whose High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, far from focusing on communist China’s egregious human rights abuses, recently pronounced the international community ought to immediately recognize the “rights of nature.” This is the same organization that goes through whatever circumlocutions it thinks necessary to place Cuba and Libya on the Human Rights Council while denouncing Israel for “war crimes” every day five times before lunch. The UN is, at best, hopelessly dysfunctional, at worst actively damaging.

But with inclusion comes a measure of security; and every effort to afford Taiwan a seat at the UN — a seat it deserves far more than a lot of countries that currently hold one there — at the very least serves to hamper Chinese irredentist ambitions.

Meanwhile, the ICAO suffers from none of the malfeasance of the UN. And given the Taipei Flight Information Region (FIR) covers some of the busiest commercial airspace in east Asia, it would make sense to afford them access to relevant information sharing they are currently denied. The Taiwanese are professional, advanced, and civilized enough to manage without the official connections — Googling needed information if they have to — such that air travel to and from there remains exceptionally safe despite PRC’s ignoring of Taiwan’s airspace and other provocations; but the continued exclusion from official international channels at the behest of the CCP is at least as much an embarrassment to the ICAO as it is intended to be for Taiwan.

At present, the risk to Taiwan from China appears to be that of blockade. When I last visited the country three years ago, I was informed they relied on imports for about 90% of their energy needs. This time, we were told it is closer to 96%. What changed? They shut down the last of their nuclear reactors. A former foreign minister I spoke with relayed public sentiment is showing a growing desire to go back to nuclear, to repatriate at least some of their energy. But even if policy were to change, reactors take time to come online. This means Taiwan needs help, mostly in the form of natural gas. This is something the U.S. has lots of, if regrettably short on Pacific Coast LNG terminals.

All of this ought to give American political leaders a great deal to think about. Recent rumblings out of Washington about the suspension of some $400 million of military aid to Taipei does not install a great deal of confidence America is prepared to keep our word. And there is good reason to inject some constancy into America’s commitment to Taiwan’s freedom — reasons strategic, economic, political, and moral. Virtually all international councils permit among their ranks communist China, arguably the largest oppressive power in the world, while excluding one of that world’s most open, free-market democracies. And indeed, the world’s most powerful free-market democracy clings to a diplomatic position put in place by Jimmy Carter, rest his soul, which does essentially the same thing.    

Kelly Sloan is a political and public affairs consultant and a recovering journalist based in Denver.