The water year 2023-24 is showing signs of being one of the warmest on record, according to a state climatologist who presented the latest water data to the state’s water watchers Tuesday. Water years run from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30.

The group, formerly known as the Water Availability Task Force and now known as the Water Conditions Monitoring Committee, also got an update on the status of reservoirs in Colorado, which is quite good compared to previous years.

Russ Schumacher, a state climatologist with the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University, said during the meeting that almost everywhere in the state has been in the top 10 of warmest years out of 129 years of recordkeeping.

The exception has been in the central and southern mountains. 

But May has made up for a lot of that, with some of the wettest conditions, thanks to big snowfalls in the central mountains in late April and early May. He noted that for Alamosa, for example, May has been the second-wettest month on record. But there’s context to that, Schumacher explained: Alamosa got 1.46 inches of precipitation over a three-day period from May 9 to 11, the second-most on record going back to 1935.

That’s a lot for Alamosa, but Schumacher noted Yuma got at least 2 inches of rain in 20 minutes on Monday.

Warm conditions in southwestern Colorado have meant the snowpack is melting rapidly, according to Brian Domonosko of the Natural Resources Conservation Service with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

The snowmelt has been ahead of schedule in the southwestern area, which includes the San Juan, San Miguel, Dolores and Las Animas rivers, and for the Rio Grande in the San Luis Valley. The southwest area lost more than 8 inches of snowmelt over 14 days in April, some of the most rapid snowmelt in the past 16 years. The upper Rio Grande similarly experienced rapid snowmelt, losing almost 6 inches of snowmelt in that same 14-day period in April. 

Peak snowmelt has been delayed in other parts of the state, due to some of those intense mountain snowstorms in late April and early May, and that meant the peak for the South Platte Basin, for example, was delayed by more than three weeks. The peak was also delayed by three weeks for the North Platte Basin.

The upper Arkansas, for example, regained more than 2 inches of snow water equivalent, a measurement of how much water comes from the snow, in a four-day period in early May. Schumacher said that was the largest four-day increase on record for the Arkansas Basin for this late in the year. 

Snowpack statewide is at 109% of median, Domonosko said. He anticipates near normal runoff in the Colorado River Basin, the upper Arkansas and in Northern Colorado. 

Colorado is likely headed to a La Niña summer and fall, which means dry conditions for much of the state. 

Reservoir storage, however, is well above average, and well above levels even from a year ago. That’s good news for the state’s largest reservoirs, Blue Mesa in Gunnison County and Navajo, which straddles the Colorado-New Mexico border near Durango.

Drought conditions are beginning to creep into the state, with Prowers County, in southeastern Colorado, with the most severe drought conditions statewide. 

Overall, about 38% of the state is experiencing low-levels of drought, primarily in the southwest and southeastern plains. But even that news isn’t bad: Much of the state has improved in its drought conditions, save for southeastern Colorado, and in the San Luis Valley, the improvement has been dramatic. 

All of those conditions contribute to soil moisture, which is well above average in the San Luis Valley and in southern Park County. Soil moisture, which examines the amount of moisture in soil that isn’t saturated, “plays an important role in agricultural monitoring, drought and flood forecasting, forest fire prediction, water supply management, and other natural resource activities,” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.