Whenever I find myself growing optimistic, rather than cynical or irrationally exuberant, I like to touch base with a friend of half-a-century’s standing. I first met him while he was an intern in the Gerald Ford White House. He would go on to several stints at federal agencies during the Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan administrations, military service during Desert Storm, and on to a career in  international finance. He spends half his time outside the country these days, hob-nobbing with finance ministers, diplomats and bankers. In other words, his information sources are well placed, well briefed and reality based.

True to form, my friend asked last week whether I was aware the defense ministers of Sweden, Finland and Germany recently made public speeches in their respective countries advising citizens they should be preparing for war with Russia. I acknowledged I had not heard this, although I did note Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin seemed to be conducting nearly as much shuttle diplomacy among our NATO allies as Tony Blinken has been pursuing in the Middle East. When I inquired why I hadn’t seen news reports directed to what sounded like rather alarming claims, he noted their remarks were reduced to a paragraph or two by both the New York Times and the Washington Post.

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He suggested I visit BBC’s international news site and, sure enough, I found coverage of the three public addresses. Perhaps the most direct were warnings from the Swedish Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin and the nation’s Commander-in-Chief Michael Bydén. Bohlin pointed out, “Many have said it before me, but let me say it with the force of my office — there could be a war in Sweden.” Drawing a comparison with the “total resilience” to Russian invasion shown in Ukraine, he continued, “Such an effort can only be made quickly enough if the vast majority of people are aware of the situation and comprehend what is at stake.” Bydén agreed with his Defence Minister, observing, “On an individual level, you have to prepare yourself mentally… it is now about moving from words and understanding to action.” He continued, “Look at the news from Ukraine and ask yourself the simple questions: If this happens here, am I prepared? What should I do?”

Sweden may be NATO’s most recent member, but its concerns are echoed around the Baltic Sea. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has been raising his own alarms since late last year his nation needs to be better prepared to confront Russian aggression. “We have to be fit for defense. And get both the Bundeswehr and society ready for this.” Germany may have a long way to go to get ready. Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a 100 billion Euro special military preparedness fund, but another 300 billion are likely required. Rafael Loss, German security policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, is concerned the current coalition government spans significant conflicts on how to manage its federal budget — that it won’t be able to find a way to fund the military once the first 100 billion runs out in 2026.

Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Finland are expressing similar worries. Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, warned Finland while they were considering NATO membership, now concluded, “Since they are our neighbors (sharing a 900-mile border), if, God forbid, there is some escalation, they will be the first to suffer.” All of this raises the question, if our NATO allies are expressing such concerns, should we be worried as well? The answer is, yes.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin press secretary Dmitry Peskov have begun referring to the special military operation in Ukraine as a “war with NATO.” Though recent moves to seize villages along the Ukrainian border near Kharkiv appear defensive, creating a buffer against the surface-to-surface missiles that should soon start arriving in Kyiv and, therefore, is designed to keep military targets in southern Russia out of missile reach — this does not imply an intention to retreat. Russian meddling in upcoming Moldovan elections and an attempted assassination of Slovakia’s pro-Moscow prime minister make this the most dangerous region on the globe.

The Washington Post’s decision to feature a 3-page essay titled “Russia, Remastered” following Putin’s inauguration for his fifth term as president may cost its Moscow press chief, Robyn Dixon, continuing access. As the once and current czar, now past 70, senses his mortality, he seems hellbent on restoring Russia to a pole position among nations. The Post story “…documents the historic scale of the changes Putin is carrying out and has accelerated at breathtaking speed” to achieve what Andrei Kolesnikov at the Carnegie Russia Center identifies as “…the militarization of consciousness.” Accompanied by Putin’s frequent charges NATO nations are “satanic” and the Ukraine war “sacred” he is attempting to position Russia as a protector of traditional cultural values against liberal freedoms.

Also encouraging Russian women to bear eight or more children as their grandmothers did, Mikhail Zygar, a Russian journalist observes, “They are trying to create some new form of ideology for the masses, it’s not a war with Ukraine. It’s a war with America, a war with the West or with Satan, with all the forces of moral decay.” Tens of thousands of educated Russians have voted with their feet, fleeing military conscription. Beginning with the new school year in September, all schoolchildren will receive regular military training while compulsory courses in patriotism are now required at universities. Popular Russian novelist, now living in London, Grigory Chkhartishvili  accuses Putin of attempting “Orthodox sharia using xenophobic, bigoted, paranoid, misogynistic and inevitably anti-Semitic clichés to mobilize Russians. Moscow must become a mecca of morons. That’s the plan!”

If all this sounds more than a little lunatic and eerily similar to the antics of a certain German authoritarian during the 20th century, as my friend believes, we need to pay more attention. Putin is rearming Russia, molding a new generation of cannon fodder, and plotting a battle for which NATO is currently unprepared. Our allies have been forced to recognize one American candidate for president is unlikely to rush to their assistance, treaty or no treaty. Nor is there a Churchillian figure in Congress striding to the podium each morning to sound the siren for Americans. History will question where our attention was focused.

Miller Hudson is a public affairs consultant and a former Colorado legislator.