HUDSON | Pondering the prospects of ‘civil war’

On Aug. 18 my bride and I boarded a plane for the first time in three years. Over the next twelve days we visited all the New England states, encompassing a three-day reunion in Bar Harbor, Maine, and visits to high school and college friends across four states. Five days eating lobsters and blueberries have filled my dietary dance card for the remainder of 2022. I would be remiss, however, if I failed to note the market dominance of Dunkin Donuts across this patch of America. Nearly every gas station boasts a drive-thru doughnut lane. Few Starbucks compete for their morning coffee rush.
I carried a copy of Canadian journalist Stephen Marche’s “The Next Civil War” to combat B&B insomnia. Though I agree with Marche’s opinion that our would-be insurrectionists are in for a huge surprise when the U.S. Army arrives, I’m unconvinced that a significant minority of Americans are ready to start slaughtering their neighbors. I watched for evidence of seditious sentiment but spotted just a single “Biden’s not my President” placard in rural New Hampshire. During recent years you could spot a half-dozen identical expressions in my Denver City Park neighborhood protesting the Trump presidency.
Despite the FBI “raid” into MAGA’s Mar-A-Lago mansion, there was very little public conversation I overheard concerning a topic dominating the airwaves. The proposition the FBI is rife with socialist thugs seemed a tough sell. Marche recommends the United States engineer a mutually acceptable separation of red and blue states into a pair of independent nations, or possibly three – if the Pacific Coast chooses to spin off on its own. Any of this seems vanishingly unlikely. There are several Supreme Court decisions establishing the Union as legally eternal. Yet, even if you are willing to ignore these opinions, just how would this work?
As Sarah Vowell pointed out in the New York Times, 40% of us no longer reside in the states where we were born. Blue states, home to most of our “makers,” routinely subsidize the many “takers” in red states. Just how enthusiastic will Alabama and Mississippi, which receive $7 in federal support for each dollar they send to Washington, be about losing this largesse? And just how would the 70% of federal lands located in Western states – a concern in Colorado, for sure – be divvied up? Nonetheless, 41% of Democrats and 52% of Republicans at least “somewhat agree” secession along a red-blue divide has merit.
What of the metropolitan blue islands in red states, or the rural red counties in blue states? Where should secession stop? Republicans don’t hold a single Congressional seat in a district with more than 600 residents per square mile. How’s that for an urban-rural contrast? Democrats hold only a handful with fewer than 600 residents. We spent nights with two Republican couples (yes, we have Republican friends willing to put us up), one couple that served in the Reagan administration and another that donate gobs of cash to candidates. Neither was willing to cast another ballot for Trump. In fact, they quizzed us about whether we thought Biden would run again – a prospect that gave them the shivers.
Though I was able to assure them I doubted Joe would run again in 2024, I also pointed out they will have little enthusiasm for his yet unnamed replacement. This did not alter their promise to never to pull a lever again for Trump, who they now view as immoral, indecent and repulsive. It required four years to create that animosity. They readily acknowledged they reside in a minority within their party. Paul LePage, the “Trump before Trump,” who served a term as Governor of Maine and is best remembered for his frequent use of the “n word” has returned. He won a Republican primary earlier this summer and although he’s cleaned up his expletives, he seems unlikely to oust the Democrat who beat him badly four years ago.
In New Hampshire, it appears fire-breathing election denier Don Bolduc will defeat Chris Morse for the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan. It was assumed she would face a tough re-election. Not so much if Bolduc is on the ballot. It may take a thorough whipping, coast-to-coast, to break the trance that mesmerizes the Republican base. Can crushing defeats pour cold water on the civil war talk? Not for every insurrectionist, to be sure; but just how many Republicans – however angry they are with liberal elites – wish for explosions and the echo of gunfire in their communities?
The notion we have more in common than separates us tugs at my conscience. New England has experienced a summer-long drought and its trees are starting to turn early. Lawns are brown and fire danger is high. It made me feel right at home.
Miller Hudson is a public affairs consultant and a former Colorado legislator.

