CRONIN & LOEVY | Our take on the ballot issues

Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy
Registered Colorado voters should receive mail-in ballots in a day or two. We believe voters should pay almost as much attention to the ballot issues as to the candidates.
We offer below our recommendations and forecasts. A few are tough to decide and, as you will note, the two of us differ on a couple. We have no hard data to guide our predictions. They are merely estimates a month ahead of election day.
Eleven issues are on the ballot in this election. Here is our take on each one:
Prop. 113/Senate Bill 42 — National Popular Vote. This is a proposal to bypass the Electoral College in presidential elections by giving all of Colorado’s electoral votes to the national popular-vote winner. Many Democrats support this to prevent Republicans from winning the electoral vote (and the White House) while losing the national popular vote.
Cronin: No. Loevy: No. Yes, it is time to get rid of or greatly overhaul the Electoral College, yet this is not the right way to do it. An amendment to the U.S. constitution would be the right way. Our forecast: Prop. 113 will fail.
Prop. 114/Initiative 107 — Reintroduction of Gray Wolves. The gray wolf would be carefully introduced west of the Continental Divide. Ecologists favor it; ranchers generally oppose it.
Cronin: No. Loevy: No. This complex issue, with real implications for livestock growers and back country hikers and skiers, should be decided by the legislature and governor, not the voters. Our forecast: Prop. 114 will fail.
Prop. 115/Initiative 120 — Prohibit abortions after 22 weeks. This proposed law limiting abortion rights is up for its fourth try with Colorado voters.
Cronin: No. Loevy: No. Abortion foes may be attempting to copy Douglas Bruce, who got TABOR, “a vote on all tax increases,” adopted on his third try. We find it too restrictive. Our forecast: Prop. 115 will fail (again).
Prop. 116/Initiative 306 — Reduce State Income Tax. State income tax rates would be reduced from 4.63 percent to 4.5 percent. The lost revenue to Colorado state government will have to be made by cutting other state programs, like road funds and higher education.
Cronin: No. Loevy: No. We like the idea of rounding-off the state income tax rate to a more even number, but we would prefer to round up to 5.0 percent rather than down to 4.5. We would use the increased tax money for the state’s five most important programs — K-12 education, highways, higher education, Medicaid (medical aid for the poor), and prisons. Coronavirus has hit the state budget hard with major cuts. This is not the moment to cut the state income tax rate. Our forecast: Prop. 116 will fail.
Prop. 117/Initiative 295 — Fees for new state based enterprises. If you support TABOR with its “a vote on all tax increases,” then this makes sense. The state legislature has been avoiding TABOR by raising fees for state programs rather than increasing taxes. This would require a vote to raise fees just as a vote is currently required to raise taxes.
Cronin: No. Loevy: No. On the other hand, if you agree with TABOR critics that state government in Colorado is under-financed, then you should oppose this. Our forecast: Prop. 117 will fail.
Prop. 118/Initiative 283 — Paid family and medical leave. This creates a required state run family and medical leave program paid for by employers and employees. Whether the financing provided will actually pay the costs of the program is questionable.
Cronin: No. Loevy: No. Colorado already has constitutionally and legally required programs that the state cannot afford to support financially. The state is currently running a large deficit in legally required spending on K-12 education. This program, though desirable in many ways, could prove a future financial nightmare for Colorado. In prosperous economic times, this might pass. Our forecast: Prop. 118 will fail.
Amend. 76/Initiative 76 — Citizen qualification of electors. This changes the Colorado constitution, which now reads “every citizen” can vote.” The new language would say “only a citizen” can vote. It is designed to prevent immigrants without U.S. citizenship from voting in Colorado elections.
Cronin: No. Loevy: Yes. This is an unnecessary change, Still, some people want to clarify that immigrants need to become citizens of the United States if they are going to vote in Colorado elections. Our forecast: Amend. 76 will pass.
Amend. 77/Initiative 257 — Eliminate gaming limits in Central City, Black Hawk and Cripple Creek casinos. This would remove the $100 maximum betting limit in the three mountain towns in Colorado that have casino gambling. Each town would also have to gain local voter approval to raise the limits.
Cronin: Yes. Loevy: Yes. Those opposed to gambling in Colorado might as well give up. The Colorado lottery and gambling in the three mountain towns have been going on for years with no major visible ill effects. Our forecast: Amend. 77 will pass.
Amend. B/Senate Concurrent Resolution 1 — Repeal the Gallagher Amendment. Sent to the voters by the state legislature, this would eliminate the requirement in the state constitution that sets a property tax ratio of 55 percent on commercial property and 45 percent on residential. The long term effect of the requirement has been to keep homeowner property taxes reasonably low and drive up business property taxes.
Cronin: No. Loevy: Yes. We think tax policy should be set by the state legislature rather than in the inflexible state constitution. People are probably willing to pay more property tax on homes in order to give a fairer property tax break to Colorado businesses. But this is an anti-tax state. Our forecast: Amend. B is a toss-up.
Amend. C/House Concurrent Resolution 20-1001 — New bingo licenses.
We’re in pain! Is anything as mundane as bingo licensing policy really in the state constitution? This constitutional amendment sets employee policies and license requirements.
Cronin: Yes. Loevy: Yes. It’s in the state constitution, so we have no choice but to deal with it there. At a future date, the state legislature should get this out of the state constitution and handled as regular state legislation. Our forecast: Amend. C will pass.
Prop, EE/House Bill 1427 — Taxing nicotine products. Colorado has a record of approving things like smoking and gambling and then taxing them heavily. Vaping products would be included in this tax program. The proposal is supposed to raise $294 million for public education.
Cronin No. Loevy No. We are worried this could raise the cost of nicotine and vaping so high that an illegal black market will develop. Moreover, this is a decidedly regressive tax. Our forecast: Prop. EE will fail.
For those who have read this far, here is a bonus “month before election day” forecast in the Colorado presidential and U.S. Senate races: Biden — 54 to 56 %; Trump — 41to 43 %; Hickenlooper — 50 to 53; Gardner — 47 to 50 percent.

