The RTD Board of Directors approved a new revenue forecast last week with a “less severe” budget-cutting scenario for 2021 than previously thought.

This latest forecast estimates that RTD will take in $565 million in revenue for 2020, a $62 million improvement from the May forecast. 

During the July 28 study session, the board heard the renewed forecast and discussed whether the 2021-26 budget planning process should continue with the more positive outlook.

After a discussion with RTD Chief Financial Officer Heather McKillop, the board adopted the forecast but also requested that staff have a more “pessimistic” revenue and budget-cut plan ready to substitute .

According to a release from RTD, analysts have said, in some areas, “sales and use taxes that RTD relies on for much of its revenue have rebounded more quickly from the COVID-19 shutdowns than previously estimated.”

Going into 2021, middle estimates put revenue at about $571 million. This, similar to 2020 revenue forecasts, is up from the May forecast, which projected 2021 revenues around $485 million. While this does leave a $166 million deficit in the 2021 budget, this is an improvement from the May prediction, which put the deficit at $251 million. 

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, RTD was struggling with revenue. In Sept. 2019, RTD was facing an annual shortfall of $12 million; the agency posted $143.5 million in fare revenue in 2018 while total operating costs reached over $777 million. The difference was made up through subsidies. 

RTD still expects a shortfall of $848 million between 2021 and 2026. 

“It would help to have another, darker analysis in our back pocket to use quickly if things go south again, as well they might,” director Judy Lubow said.