An estimated 170,000 Coloradans – both symptomatic and asymptomatic – have had COVID-19, or nearly 3% of the population, state health officials and a University of Colorado researcher said Tuesday. And although the recent data shows the proverbial curve has flattened, as hoped, cases could rise around mid-August, when schools usually re-open.

“This really still indicates we’re at the beginning of the epidemic,” said Jill Hunsaker Ryan, executive director of the state health department.

The number of new tracked cases has been on the decline since late April, and cell phone data provided by third-party companies show Coloradans shifted to “stay-at-home” behaviors in March and April, which the researchers credit for reducing the spread of the virus.

But social distancing will remain a necessary tool to keep the spread of the virus low, the researchers said, and even in best-case scenarios, the number of coronavirus cases and deaths will remain relatively level for months to come.

Colorado is still likely to see “rising epidemic curves,” said Dr. Jon Samet, dean of the Colorado School of Public Health.

“The scenarios clearly show we’re in this for the longer run, absent a surprise on the part of the virus” like unexpected seasonality, Samet said. “We’ll need to maintain social distancing and ensure those who are most vulnerable take measures to protect themselves.” 

Models show a spike in cases later in the summer, made worse if social distancing is not maintained, Samet warned. The state is aiming for 65% social distancing during the governor’s active Safer at Home phase and achieved approximately 80% during his stay-at-home order, he said.

All Coloradans are being asked to reduce their social contact by more than half in an effort to stymie the flow of the virus, and at-risk Coloradans are still being asked to stay at home whenever possible, said Dr. Rachel Herlihy, an epidemiologist with the state health department.

In other news from the press conference:

? Those with coronavirus who are pre-symptomatic may shed the virus for several days before they become symptomatic. Some with the virus will never become symptomatic, Samet said. These factors “have lead to its really rapid … spread,” he said, adding that more than half of cases are asymptomatic, according to some estimates.

? Hospitalizations are trending down, but data trails by 13 days, Samet said, adding that data reflects time during the governor’s stay-at-home order but only a small portion of time under Safer at Home.

? When businesses have two cases of coronavirus, they’re recommended to close for 48 hours and should contact the state health department, Ryan said.