I am happy to report that I have dear friends across the political spectrum. One cannot spend a bit over 25 years on active duty with the military without running across folks far on the right, and one equally cannot spend too much time in grad school without finding other folks way out on the left. Happily, I think, most people are more toward the middle, and I usually find myself there, occasionally to the horror of my friends far left and far right. Our current president, however, by nature of his largely apolitical and expedient-based view of the world, tests the tolerance of those across the nation who consider themselves conservatives. 

Some feel the need to support Trump without hesitation, perhaps because they view him as spot on in his policies, or perhaps more likely because they are loyal to the GOP and Trump has, at least in some areas, invoked GOP doctrine. But others, I suspect, are deeply troubled by his pattern of dishonesty and self-aggrandizement. I myself am not particularly impressed with braggarts, and our president is such an individual. More on that in a moment…

Recently, my friends from the left and from the right have alternatively been horrified or taken great pleasure in recent polling that shows President Trump’s approval rating to be at an all-time high, at roughly 54%.

Those unhappy with Trump wonder what the heck is going on, and those who love the guy feel finally vindicated. But, my friends, history has much to teach here, and context is everything.

In recent national history:

• Jimmy Carter surged to 58% approval during the Iran Hostage Crisis
• George H.W. Bush surged to 89% during Operation Desert Storm
• George W. Bush surged to 90% approval after 9/11

So, within the historical context, Trump’s “surge” is minor and is lower than even that of the deeply unpopular Carter. More importantly, all three were first-term presidents, like Trump, and two of the three lost in the next election. George W. Bush won re-election but would later depart office with one of the lowest approval ratings in history.

Trump’s bump in popularity is historically low for a “rally ’round the flag” crisis, and is likely to fade quickly, if history teaches us anything. And his re-election is hardly secured. This blip in popularity should neither enrage the left nor comfort the right, as it is almost certainly ephemeral. You may cheer or jeer as your own partisanship dictates.

But if you will allow me to digress a bit further back into American history, I’d like to share with you a bit of the thinking of Alexander Hamilton, my personal favorite Founding Father (cough…hamiltonlives.com…cough), which I feel is apt to our current situation.

In a long missive on the then-new federal government, Hamilton warns us to be on the lookout for a particular type of person. See if you think anyone currently around fits the description, eh?

He states (with the original spellings):

“When a man unprincipled in private life desperate in his fortune, bold in his temper, possessed of considerable talents, having the advantage of military habits – despotic in his ordinary demeanour – known to have scoffed in private at the principles of liberty – when such a man is seen to mount the hobby horse of popularity – to join in the cry of danger to liberty – to take every opportunity of embarrassing the General Government & bringing it under suspicion – to flatter and fall in with all the non-sense of the zealots of the day – It may justly be suspected that his object is to throw things into confusion that he may ‘ride the storm and direct the whirlwind.'”  

Hamilton is not describing Trump directly, as Trump is hardly a man of considerable talents, and he lacks the “military habits” noted above, but he certainly seems “unprincipled in private life deperate in his fortune.” Hamilton’s caution echoes across the centuries to us. Recall that only a couple of days ago, Trump suggested that the hospitals in New York should be looked into, because they are using (stealing?) so many masks. He also referred to the governor of Michigan as “that woman” and noted he wouldn’t talk to her, only the VP would. Does that sound like leadership to you? I think Trump has many lessons to learn from our Governor Polis, if he were ever open to learning, well, anything. Hamilton warned us in 1792. Beware the hobby horse. 

Thus endith your poli sci lesson for today; you are free to resume your wanderings about your home and back yard.

Hal Bidlack is a retired professor of political science and a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who taught more than 17 years at the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs.