The 2015-16 state budget, under a divided General Assembly and equally divided Joint Budget Committee, is scheduled to debut on Friday

With a divided legislature, it was certain that no one would get everything they wanted. “This was a difficult balancing act, but we did it with bipartisan support,” according to Rep. Dave Young, D-Greeley. “We have a balanced budget that lives within our means and within our budgetary constraints.”

The so-called negative factor, a budgetary stabilization device that allows the state to subtract dollars from K-12 funding based on just how much is available for school finance, isn’t going down by much in the 2015-16 budget. Budget writers put just $25 million into reducing the negative factor, far short of the $110 million that was put into reducing it in the 2014-15 budget. The estimate on what the negative factor has cost K-12 public schools is still around $900 million, according to a letter sent to the JBC last November by 174 Colorado public school superintendents.

In total, $216 million is going to K-12, a 3.5 percent increase over its 2014-15 appropriation, according to budget highlights released Wednesday by Senate Republicans.

According to House Democrats, most of the increases in the 2015-16 budget are driven by mandatory costs, such as increasing the state’s statutory reserve, increased Medicaid caseload, funding for the senior homestead property tax exemption, increased caseload in the Department of Corrections, and dollars for the Highway Users Tax Fund to build and maintain roads and bridges.

Both sides noted the state will have to issue $69.7 million in TABOR refunds to taxpayers in fiscal year 2015-16 from 2014-15 revenues. This does not include the $58 million in TABOR refunds from marijuana tax revenues (see related story). Another $116.8 million will have to be refunded in 2016-17 from previous year revenues.

Speaker of the House Dickey Lee Hullinghorst, D-Boulder, told reporters Tuesday that she had to advise her caucus that there wasn’t a lot of flexibility in the budget, and that the JBC had to reduce some of their own actions to balance the budget. “We may have some flexibility but we will have to define our priorities very carefully. None of those priorities can have a very big price tag, if it’s new money,” she said. “We’re out of money. We put money into the things that we’re required to do and our flexibility is pretty low.

“We have a lot of visiting to do about where we’re going to come up with additional money,” she added.

One of the governor’s priorities, increasing the penalties for driving under the influence, may feel the heat of budget constraints. House Bill 15-1043 was passed by the House Finance Committee on Wednesday, but the bill carries a $2.387 million price tag in 2015-16 and $11.235 million the following year. The bill’s next stop is the House Appropriations Committee.

Senate President Bill Cadman told reporters Wednesday morning that the appropriations committees in the House and Senate have set asides of $5 million each, with another $8 million set aside for the workforce development package.

The JBC got no extra dollars from the most recent revenue forecasts, released March 18. According to the governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting, the forecast is largely unchanged from December. General fund revenue is expected to increase by 8.8 percent in the current fiscal year, although it will likely slow in 2015-16 due to a decrease in oil and gas production. A report issued Monday by IHS of Englewood said that nearly half of the state’s 75 oil and gas rigs have gone inactive since October due to the drop in fuel prices.

The Legislative Council’s March forecast showed similar estimates, but noted that revenue growth would be “constrained by tightening monetary policy and a weak global economy.” The forecast said general fund revenue would be $49.1 million higher than budgeted to be spent or held in the statutory reserve.

The Long Bill will head to Senate Appropriations on Monday afternoon, March 30; the caucuses will discuss their amendments on Tuesday, and the Long Bill and its accompanying JBC measures are likely to be debated by the full Senate on Wednesday with a final vote on Thursday. The General Assembly is scheduled to be closed in observance of Good Friday on April 3.

— Marianne@coloradostatesman.com