Colorado Politics

Colorado’s congressional redistricting proposal could flip three Republican House seats | ANALYSIS

A Democrat-backed proposal to redraw Colorado’s congressional map for the 2028 election could flip three Republican districts.

The proposal, introduced by a group called Coloradans for a Level Playing Field, is yet another development in a national redistricting debate after President Donald Trump called to redraw U.S. House districts.

An analysis of the proposal in Colorado shows that the redrawn map could lead to flipping three Republican house seats to the Democrats’ column in the 2028 election, including in District 5, which has never voted for a Democratic representative in its long history, according to composite election data.

Two election maps compared side by side
Colorado’s 2021 congressional district map (left) compared to Coloradans for a Level Playing Field’s proposed redrawing (right) to be used for the 2028 election. Illustrated using Dave’s Redistricting. (Michael Braithwaite / The Denver Gazette)

In recent elections, Colorado’s Districts 3, 4 and 5 have been more favorable to Republican candidates. District 3 covers the western half of the state, from Aspen and Glenwood Springs to Grand Junction and the Western Slope, as well as Pueblo. District 4 spans the Eastern Plains and Castle Rock. District 5 is based in Colorado Springs.

Colorado’s new map would expand much of District 2, currently represented by Rep. Joe Neguse, a Democrat, westward to the Utah border, absorbing the northwest corner of District 3 in the process. It would also see District 4, currently represented by Rep. Lauren Boebert, a Republican, taking on the eastern half of District 5, currently represented by fellow GOP member Rep. Jeff Crank, with that district absorbing District 4’s area west of Castle Rock in return.

Under the proposal, the following districts will remain relatively unchanged: District 7, currently represented by Rep. Brittany Pettersen, a Democrat; District 6, currently represented by Rep. Jason Crow, also a Democrat; and District 1, currently represented by Rep. Diana DeGette, a Democrat.

District 8, currently represented by Rep. Gabe Evans, a Republican, also appears to be relatively unchanged. It’s considered one of the most competitive seats in the country.

The proposed changes seem to disproportionately affect districts that have voted for Republican representatives in recent elections, cracking, or dividing, their voter base along precinct, rather than county, lines.

A congressional map outlined with counties
A map of Colorado’s 2026 congressional districts proposed by Coloradans for a Level Playing Field with the state’s counties highlighted. Illustrated using Dave’s Redistricting. (Michael Braithwaite / The Denver Gazette)

Most specifically, El Paso and Douglas counties, both Republican strongholds, are each now split in half between Districts 4 and 5. Mesa and Pueblo counties, too, are no longer wholly in one district or another.

The last time District 3 voted for a Democratic representative was when John Salazar was elected in 2008. That was the same year when District 4 elected its last Democrat, Betsy Markey, for the position. District 5, which was created in 1973, has never been represented by a Democrat in its 50-plus year history.

With the proposed congressional redrawing, three of those districts are at risk of losing their Republican favorability in 2028.

A graph showing the change in republican voters by congressional district
Composite data from the 2016-2020 elections that is then used in conjunction with the 2020 U.S. Census for the 2022 and 2026 measurements, and the 2010 Census for the 2012 measurement, estimates that the state’s proposed congressional map redrawing could increase the possibility that Districts 3 and 5 see their Republican seats flipped Democrat. Data courtesy of Dave’s Redistricting, illustrated using Datawrapper. (Michael Braithwaite / The Denver Gazette)

The proposal, which is backed by the House Majority PAC, has been filed in four versions of a 2026 ballot measure, all of which vary in how long the redistricted map would be used for and how it would be legally implemented in place of Colorado’s current congressional map.

Trump’s call last year to redraw U.S. House districts ahead of the 2026 elections has sparked a wave of political maneuvering among state Republicans and Democrats that continues to unfold across the country.

Texas first redrew its congressional map, passed by the Republican-led legislature, which quickly drew federal lawsuits. California responded with a referendum on new U.S. House districts. The referendum, backed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic state lawmakers, is intended to help Democrats win five additional seats in California to offset Trump’s moves in Texas aimed at gaining five Republican districts.

The U.S. House currently stands at 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats, with three vacancies. Traditionally, the president’s political party loses seats in the midterm elections.

Several states, including California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, have already redrawn their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm election. Of those states, California’s is the only map that favors Democrats.

Colorado Politics Reporter Marianne Goodland and The Associated Press contributed to this report.


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