This election is Halloween scary from every direction, with polls moving up and down on the faintest spooky breeze. Finally, Colorado’s ballot returns offer actual voting data to provide some insight. Comparing this data to Pennsylvania ballot returns adds evidence for our educated election guesses.

So far Colorado’s Democratic women 45-plus in age are outvoting Republican men of the same age by 18,000 ballots and Republican women by 24,000 ballots. Just as interesting, with unaffiliated voters the majority in Colorado, Democratic women 45-plus are outvoting unaffiliated women in that cohort by 5,000 ballots. The only 45-years-plus cohort that’s outvoted these women is unaffiliated (UAF) men by 3,600 ballots.

As of Monday, with a week out, Dems represent 35.66% of finished voters in Colorado, Republicans 27% and unaffiliated 37.5%. If history is a predictor, and UAFs split in roughly the percent share of Democratic to Republican active voters, Democrats are in a strong position. These results give Adam Frisch in CD-3 and Yadira Caraveo in CD-8 a solid springboard. It puts pressure on Republicans to get out their vote to catch up.

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Pennsylvania has put out their early ballot voting numbers also. Democrats have returned 1.7 million ballots to the Republicans’ 623,404. Pennsylvania does not have the large number of unaffiliated voters we in Colorado have. Their political parties apparently have something to offer their citizens.

Another interesting feature in Pennsylvania is 1.94 million Democrats have requested ballots while only 784,851 Republicans have. Apparently, Republicans will get out that vote on Election Day. That is a gamble, especially with the latest Trump-surrogate slur on Puerto Ricans.

Another feature in the Keystone State is the ballot returns of older voters. Voters 45-plus have turned in the most ballots. If former President Donald Trump is counting on young men to boost his numbers, he is going to have to hustle. Of course, that’s where he is most experienced.

For Vice President Kamala Harris, the news in PA is mostly good as the voting is highest in the northeast corner where Democrats have an advantage. Philadelphia County has returned 85% of its mail-in ballots so there’s still some room to grow.

Comparing Colorado with Pennsylvania, they both have strong mail-in ballot returns with voters 45-plus taking the lead. Pennsylvania doesn’t report its mail-ins by gender, but if its ballot returns match Colorado’s, Trump’s approach to women voters will represent his biggest problem.

In Colorado, women 45-plus are not buying his idea he’s the best candidate for women because he will protect and save women from whatever. Older women are especially not buying that message.

It is easy to speculate on the reasons for the female back-of-the-hand to the former president. Many of the women he allegedly assaulted, and the one woman he was convicted of assaulting, are in the 60-plus age group at this time in their lives. Women voters 45-plus have lived plenty long enough to have experienced the bullying, unwanted touching, groping and assaulting that was, unfortunately, often a fact of their lives, including in the workplace. And every other place for that matter.

Women 45-to-65 are in their prime working and wage-earning years. They know Trump will not be a leader in sponsoring legislation for equal pay for equal work. They suspect he will help his billionaire colleagues like Elon Musk keep their employees’ wages down, ostensibly to cure inflation.

Middle class women 45 or older have mostly made it through the expense of childcare, only to watch their daughters and sons take on student loan debt so they can possibly have a good college experience and find a well-paying job. This script too often puts the kids or parents in long-term debt. Trump is a no-show on how to deal with costs of higher education and the destructive effect of student loans.

Women over 75 grew up in a time when abortion was illegal. They carry those memories, and they are reminded of them almost every time Trump’s VP candidate JD Vance opens his mouth. Women 45-plus worry they will not have grandchildren to adore because their adult children are burdened with student loans and their daughters with low wages. The federal minimum wage is $7.25-per-hour, not even enough to cover one Junior Whopper meal without cheese at Burger King. Trump is unlikely to significantly make changes to the federal minimum wage.

Vice President Harris may not be able to deliver on her child tax credits, dollars for newborns, an increase in minimum wage and legislation for equal pay. But she will try. She will certainly work to overturn the Supreme Court’s decision on Roe v. Wade and support reproductive rights for women. She will propose legislation to reduce the menace of firearms and increase safety for school children burdened by shooter drills rather than enjoying spelling contests.

These are just some of the reasons women, and especially women 45-plus, are turning out to vote in great numbers. No matter how much young men like Trump, they are going to have a hard time overcoming this female no-Trump tsunami.

Paula Noonan owns Colorado Capitol Watch, the state’s premier legislature tracking platform.