Those of you who a couple of months ago predicted that all three Republican members of Congress from Colorado would announce plans to give up their seats, please step forward.

Liars.

The truth is that no one, no matter how wired in, expected or anticipated this.

The exodus started with Ken Buck’s announcement that he would not seek reelection to his District 4 seat, including Douglas County, parts of the northern Front Range and the vast eastern prairie. This one qualified as only a mild surprise, as Buck had made periodic noises that he was nearing the end of his congressional stint.

Then two days after Christmas, amidst a week of presumed political quiet, Lauren Boebert, Colorado’s perpetual golf club in a lightning storm, put out word that she is leaving behind her Pueblo and Western Slope District 3 in favor of running in Buck’s district.

As political moves go, that one was a complete shocker and stunner. I have yet to talk to a single person, even the most insider Republican, who saw this one coming.

A week later, as if an exclamation point was needed on the departure fever, Doug Lamborn, the long-serving representative for long-suffering Colorado Springs, informed us of his intention to call it a career. His bulletin lacked the dramatics of Boebert’s move, but still offered an unforeseen political jolt.

Boebert’s ploy was clearly borne of political opportunism. Which is a nicer word for desperation. She will do anything to remain a part of the swamp.

For Buck and Lamborn, they can’t get away quickly enough. If only the Glassdoor website included congressional service as a job for which employee reviews are shared, one wonders what the inmates would say about the asylum.

Via cable news, Americans were able to observe the dysfunction in real time as exemplified by the majority party’s contortions in finding and retaining a speaker. How miserable must it feel to be on the inside?

Lamborn gets the benefit of being taken at face value in declaring it is time to pass the torch after 18 years. Buck is a complicated sort and the suspicion is that his motives are multiple. A television gig is rumored to be part of the equation. Whatever the impetus, Buck’s most recent months have been his finest, as he has repeatedly spoken uncomfortable truths to the MAGA contingent that dominates his caucus.

Bear in mind that these three seats are the sum total of Republican holdings of consequence in Colorado. Democrats occupy the other five congressional offices, both Senate seats, the governor’s chair, all other elected statewide executive posts, and control both legislative chambers by sizeable margins.

The course Republicans take in these three districts over coming months will speak volumes as to whether they are a serious political enterprise with designs on getting back in the game or whether they will continue to explore the fringes of decreasingly relevant lunacy.

In District 3, Republican Jeff Hurd was positioned to defeat Boebert in a primary. She did not run away from a position of strength, but one of profound weakness. If the party nominates Hurd with his substantial intellect, he will hold that seat for a good, long time.

Conversely, if Republicans again indulge their delusions, and put forth the likes of Ron Hanks, Democrat Adam Frisch will walk off with the seat, no matter the GOP’s nine-point advantage.

Shifting to District 4, the spectacle that accompanies Boebert will be central to the Republican contest. Between her gross indiscretions at the Beetlejuice performance and week-old reports of a physical altercation with her ex-husband – the police have since cleared her – she is giving off the signals of someone not just in political crisis but in a personal one, as well.

While residency in a congressional district is not a legal requirement, the look of carpetbagging and district shopping is not an attractive one.

Color me dubious that Boebert could beat Mike Lynch or Deborah Flora or Jerry Sonnenberg in a one-on-one primary. However, her prospects improve if this becomes a multi-candidate, low-turnout primary that could be won with as little as a quarter of the vote.

Flash back to 1998 when Tom Tancredo’s 25.7% of the vote in a five-way Republican primary was all he needed to secure a ten-year stay in Congress.

Now we turn south to District 5 and a bevy of Republicans suddenly looking to succeed Lamborn. My word count is insufficient to run the full list of names in speculation.

Here, the situation is much the same as in Boebert’s old District 3. If Republicans nominate the likes of a Bob Gardner, Paul Lundeen, Eli Bremer or Mark Waller, the seat will be in decent hands and remain secure for the GOP.

But then there is the entry of nominal State Republican Chair Dave Williams. No love is lost between Williams and Lamborn. When unsuccessfully challenging Lamborn in a 2022 primary, Williams was shot down in his attempt to have his moniker of “Let’s Go Brandon” appear on the ballot. Perhaps this time the authorities will allow him to run as Dave “I Really, Really Need a Paycheck” Williams.

Again here, there is the potential for Williams to prevail in a fractured field of too many GOP candidates. If that comes to pass, do not dismiss the chance of a Democrat emerging as a viable possibility. A Democrat, you ask, in Colorado Springs?

Yes, even this conservative bastion is fast changing with that pace accelerated by extreme excesses on the hard right. Witness the electoral success of Mayor Yemi Mobolade, though a political independent.

These three districts, ranging from the Utah border to the Kansas line and including the state’s second largest city, will tell us much about whether Colorado Republicans are of serious mind intent on regaining real footing or if they are further sinking to some deep, unknown, subterranean bottom.

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for Colorado Politics and the Gazette newspapers. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann