A new poll shows the property tax measure referred to voters by Gov. Jared Polis and his Democratic allies in the General Assembly is a toss-up.

But when respondents learned more about Proposition HH, support for it markedly dips and opposition mounts.   

“Although the Proposition HH ballot language is relatively easy to understand, its approval would have far-reaching policy and funding implications for every local government, school district, property owner, and taxpayer in Colorado,” said Magellan Strategies, which conducted the poll. 

Magellan concluded that, assuming voters “are relatively informed of the state and local policy changes triggered by Prop HH, the outcome of this ballot measure in November, in our opinion, is a toss-up that could go either way.”

The survey appeared to have oversampled homeowners, who will be among the beneficiaries of Prop HH’s changes to property taxes: 77% of the survey’s respondents identified as homeowners, while only 19%, about half of the current rental rate, identified as renters.

The progressive-leaning Bell Policy Center estimates that 40% of Coloradans are renters.  

Democratic lawmakers approved Senate Bill 303, which contained Proposition HH, on the last day of the 2023 legislative session. 

The ballot question will ask voters this November for permission to raise what’s called the Referendum C cap by 1% and keep that additional revenue for a 10-year period. That would generate about $167 million per year, which in turn would be funneled to local governments to hold them “harmless” from reductions in property tax revenue, as well as boost funding for K-12 education. A companion measure, contained in House Bill 1311, will provide an equalized TABOR refund to taxpayers, should Proposition HH pass, giving each single filer $873 next year, or $1,746 for joint filers, based on recent projections from the governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting.

Critics also said the proposal increases the cap by 1 percentage point each year for the next nine years, compounding the amount the government is allowed to keep and spend on property tax relief but in turn reducing TABOR refunds. 

If adopted by voters, Proposition HH would make a temporary assessment rate reduction for residential property classes and reduces valuations (and the property taxes tied to those valuations) for owner-occupied, senior and multi-family housing by $50,000 in 2023, and by $40,000 from 2024 to 2032. 

If voters reject the measure, the TABOR refund in 2024 would be based on the state’s current six-tier refund mechanism, which is decided by income levels.

The poll asked “uninformed” questions about the ballot measure, which meant respondents were asked to read the ballot language before getting any information about the measure’s cost, purpose or effect. “Informed” questions asked respondents to read the ballot language after being informed of the ballot measure’s effects, if approved.

The results show only about 10% of likely voters are very familiar with Prop HH, while 25% are “somewhat familiar,” but 41% are not at all familiar with the measure.

The test for the uninformed question shows support at 54% and opposition at 34%, with 12% undecided. Democrats show the most support, at 67%, with women approving at 60%, seniors at 59% and homeowners at 55%. Republicans reject the measure at 44%, with disapproval among men at 42%.

The test results, however, show significant variation when respondents learned about the measure’s effects on state and local policy changes before reading the ballot language.

To educate respondents about Proposition HH for the “informed” test, pollsters asked a series of 10 questions. Magellan said overall, support declines by 11%, from 54% to 43%, with a similar decrease in every voter subgroup. Opposition increases by 12%, from 34% to 46%.

That’s even when some of the questions made Prop HH more attractive to some respondents, such as by noting the increase in senior property tax exemption and making it portable so that seniors could downsize and take the exemption with them; as well as adding a question about the equalized tax refunds coming from HB 1311. Respondents favored changes (62%) to the senior property tax exemption, and 47% liked the idea of an equal TABOR refund, compared to 38% who said they would be more likely to reject HH as a result. 

Respondents are also more likely to support Prop HH for its provision to provide $20 million for the state’s renter relief program by a margin of 52-39. 

But respondents don’t favor the effects on local governments, contained in two questions, including one that said, “Local governments are unlikely to receive enough Prop HH Funding to ‘backfill’ and replace the total amount of lost revenue over ten years.”

That question shows 45% in opposition to Prop HH, while 38% in support.

Respondents are almost evenly divided on the measure based on its effects on property tax increases. 

The survey reports 91% of the respondents intend to vote in November. 

The survey also asked likely voters why they would vote for Proposition HH, with most respondents answering they look forward to reduced property taxes. One respondent, a Democratic voter in Arapahoe County, said the measure “is well thought-out and I approve of the aims and projected outcomes.”

“The decrease in TABOR refunds is minimal and my family got absolutely slammed by an increase in home valuation that will lead to a quality of life-impacting increase in our property taxes,” the respondent said. 

Among those who said they would definitely reject HH is an unaffiliated voter in Adams County, who called the measure a “sleight of hand” by state government, “brought to us by the same folks who tricked the Colorado electorate into voting to repeal Gallagher.”

“Now, they want us to rubber stamp their giving to our left hand SOME of what they will take from our right,” the respondent said. 

“Simply put, as voters learn about Prop HH, they are more likely to oppose it, including seniors and homeowners,” Magellan’s statement said.

Magellan said it paid for the poll of 662 likely November voters, which was conducted between June 21 and July 7. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.81 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval. Survey data were weighted to represent Colorado’s voter turnout demographics in an odd-year election cycle.

Magellan Prop HH surveyMarianne Goodland
marianne.goodland@coloradopolitics.comMarianneGoodland, Colorado Politics
marianne.goodland@coloradopolitics.com
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