With caffeine at the ready as I fire up the keyboard very early Wednesday morning, we know precious little about ultimate control of the United States Senate and House. The balance of power remains still up in the air.

Yet, at the same time, we know everything. Whichever party turns out to be a seat up or a couple of seats down, the message of this mid-term election was unmistakable. To say nothing of shocking.

A good deal of this may be clarified by the time these words are published and read. But at this moment, the even split in the Senate is unchanged. Democrats have gained a seat in Pennsylvania while Republicans are on the verge of turning the Nevada seat. Wisconsin remains narrowly red.

If that holds, a rather big if, then the battle all comes down to Georgia. Déjà vu. Both incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican abortion-funder Herschel Walker are short of the state’s required 50% threshold. An early December runoff will again be determinative.

Another 50-50 Senate is quite possible, bordering on likely, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking ties while Joe Manchin continues to run the place.

Across the country, Democrats look to be picking up a governor’s chair or two. Arizona is a nailbiter featuring flaky firebrand Kari Lake against lackluster Katie Hobbs. While control of the U.S. House is close to a coin flip, with perhaps a slight edge to Republicans based on a handful of upsets in New York state.

Much ink was spilled in advance of Tuesday on the projected red wave. The fact of it was taken as a given. The only real question related to its size. Would it reach tsunami levels comparable to the off-years of 1994, 2010 and 2018?

Well, here we are and the wave was the tiniest of ripples. Worse, it may turn out to be a damaging backflow for Republicans.

If there is an early takeaway, it is that to be labeled an insurrectionist is not a good look and the American public, while deeply divided between left and right, knows who was responsible for the unprecedented assault on our country’s core traditions.

Watching the returns come in last night, I was reminded of the story of the two friends out in the woods when they find themselves being chased by a bear. The imperative is not to outrun the bear; just to be faster than your buddy.

So many pre-election polls focused on President Biden’s underwater poll numbers. What those polls missed was the relative ranking of Biden and Trump. No matter how stagnant and underwhelming are Biden’s numbers, voters again preferred him to the other guy lurking in the shadows.

In these parts, we should begin with a moment of silence for what used to be a venerable institution known as the Colorado Republican Party.

May it rest in peace.

If an exclamation point was necessary on Colorado’s steady march to the ranks of reliably, solidly blue states, yesterday provided it. On the color wheel, Colorado has moved far past periwinkle and into a much deeper shade. Maybe lapis or cobalt, and not very short of outright navy blue.

Many observers, myself included, thought Republican Barb Kirkmeyer was poised to take Colorado’s new congressional district. Even if it that was to be the only Republican high point of the evening. Yet Democrat Yadira Caraveo won the race, with Kirkmeyer conceding on Wednesday night.

And then there is the headline story no one really, truly, seriously thought possible as GOP celebrity provocateur Lauren Boebert sits on the precipice of defeat. Boebert still trails no-chance Democrat Adam Frisch by just shy of 3,500 votes.

The fact that the Boebert seat, a plus-nine Republican district, is even a squeaker is major news. If it indeed tips, the satisfaction felt by Colorado Democrats last night will turn to unrestrained glee. In which they will be joined by more than a few independent and Republican voters.

Boebert, the poster child, was a considerable drag on the GOP in many parts of the state. Boebert, the congresswoman, may have been too much of an incendiary spectacle even for her own very rural and conservative district.

Republicans expected to make gains in both the state Senate and state House with the most optimistic among them thinking it possible to gain majority control of the Senate. Instead, they suffered further losses in both chambers. Virtually every remotely competitive district went blue. Even the able and moderate Colin Larson, on tap to become House Minority Leader following Hugh McKean’s tragic passing, appears to have lost his race in the once securely Republican precincts of southern Jefferson County.

For Colorado Republicans, the question was: If not in 2022, then when? Yet, a slate full of many attractive, responsible, mainstream nominees meant nothing. Neither did a favorable context in which the Republican issue set of the economic, raging inflation and a scary rise in violent crime was dominant.

At day’s end, the GOP brand, especially in Colorado where it is defined by Trump, Boebert and assorted others, is nauseous and repellant. Until the brand is completely overhauled, all other factors are of marginal relevance.

Politics teaches us to expect the unexpected. Trump delivered on that promise with his surprise victory in 2016. Six years later, he delivered again by pulling defeat – or, at best, the most disappointing and tepid of wins – out of the jaws of major victory.

Election 2022 was a stabilizing affair that temporarily slowed down the wild mood swings of throwing a different set of bums out of office every two years. More than that, it was a victory for democracy, with a small “d” but with capital importance. That is not nothing. In fact, it may be everything.

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for Colorado Politics and the Gazette newspapers. Reach him at?EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann