There are losing streaks, and then there is what has befallen Colorado Republicans over the past two decades.

Those who have recently purchased a Subaru and moved to our fair state are often astounded to learn Colorado for a long time was rather reliably red. Sure, a succession of Democratic governors occupied the large first-floor Capitol office, but Republicans operated most of the other levers of political power.

Arapahoe and Jefferson counties were nearly as Republican as El Paso County. The three of them, along with a growing Douglas County, more than offset Denver, Boulder and other Democratic strongholds.

Indeed, times change. Beginning in 2004, Democrats grew resurgent, and then quickly dominant without looking back. In the intervening 18 years, a grand total of one Republican has won a top-tier statewide election for governor or U.S. senator, that being Cory Gardner in 2014 who ousted incumbent U.S. Senator Mark Udall by a mere two points.

Beyond that, it has been the Mojave desert of dry spells.

The reasons have been multiple. They include in-migration, shifting demographics, the declining influence of rural areas, superior Democratic money and political infrastructure, and a self-defeating Republican Party often unable to rein in its worst actors and worst instincts as it descended into less relevant wacky-ville.

The prospect is that 2022 could be the year that arrests that slide and allows Republicans to regain some measure of political viability and leadership.

That is this year’s lead political story in these parts. The potential for a Republican rebound is present. The question is whether Republicans will seize the opportunity and put their best foot forward or again waste it on inflamed self-indulgence.

Imagine two possible Republican tickets.

In the first scenario, the grown-ups prevail in the coming primary election. Self-made businessman Joe O’Dea is the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate. Businesswoman Heidi Ganahl with her compelling personal story carries the GOP banner in the race for governor. The respected former Jefferson county clerk Pam Anderson is their candidate for Colorado Secretary of State. She is joined by Lang Sias as the nominee for state treasurer and prosecutor John Kellner running for attorney general.

Add in either state Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer or Thornton Mayor Jan Kulmann as the nominee in the new 8th Congressional District and you have quite the credible ticket, comparable to what Republicans used to field during their glory years.

None on this list lack conservative bona fides or outlook. Though equally important, none of them have attached themselves to crackpot theories, or just hateful crackpots far outside the political mainstream.

Now to the alternate, second scenario. Instead of O’Dea, Republicans hand their U.S. Senate nomination to Jan. 6 rally attendee Ron Hanks. Instead of Ganahl, they put forth as their gubernatorial candidate Greg Lopez, who flirts with extremists, proposes to ban voting by mail and contends the idea of one person, one vote is negotiable.

They eschew the non-political Anderson to oversee the state’s elections in favor of the ultra-political Tina Peters, under indictment and no longer allowed to serve as the election officer in her home county despite being the elected clerk and recorder.

In the new congressional district north of Denver, Republicans put forward former crank legislator Lori Saine, now running on a platform of alarm about Marxists seemingly everywhere.

It is a choice between two paths. One leads to competitiveness, a second look from many voters who had written off the GOP, and, quite plausibly, some long-delayed victories.

The other well-worn path leads nowhere beside further defeats, more independents voting blue for lack of a decent option and an exclamation point on the marginalization of the Colorado GOP.

That might fuel further outrage in the extreme channels of social media. But it does nothing to advance conservative policy. It places June impulse ahead of November victory. For those of all political stripes who think the state would be better served with two viable parties, it leaves them again empty.

The hard truth is that the appeal of Lauren Boebert types is limited to a declining number of largely rural, deep-red pockets of Colorado. Those who seek to remake the party in her image – or that of Donald Trump, to whom the state never took much of a liking – are destined to suffer in noisy defeat.

But if Republicans choose the smart and pragmatic, they could well garner some November wins. There is little doubt this will be a Republican year across the country. It is simply a question of how big and at what point various races tip.

If Republicans enjoy a modest breeze at their back, they could well pick up the new 8th Congressional District.

If that breeze becomes a brisk tailwind, a strong GOP nominee could win the 7th Congressional seat, from which Ed Perlmutter is retiring.

Make that wind a heavy gust and the down-ballot contests for secretary of State, state treasurer and attorney general become winnable. Secretary of State is likely the first to flip, given incumbent Jena Griswold’s lightning rod persona, though all three races tend to move in some close synchronicity.

If that national wind grows to gale force (not at all impossible given ongoing polling), the state Senate could shift to Republican control.

If a tornado watch is issued, Michael Bennet’s U.S. Senate seat could be at risk. Though if that happens, O’Dea would not be the 51st Republican senator, but closer to the 55th given other seats that will fall first.

Finally, if the year results in a full-blown, tsunami-producing, category five hurricane, then Gov. Jared Polis could be in jeopardy. But it is likely to take such a biblical storm to dislodge his entrenched reign.

In wrapping up, it is worth keeping in mind what Colorado conservative leader and talker, Jon Caldara, refers to as “Caldara’s first political axiom.”

“There is nothing Republicans can’t mess up.”

The primary election upcoming on June 28 will be the test of whether that axiom holds, or whether Colorado Republicans have regained a substantial measure of seriousness. We will know soon enough.

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for ColoradoPolitics and the Gazette newspapers. Reach him at?EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann.