Colorado Politics

SLOAN | A fond farewell as Taiwanese turmoil possible

Kelly Sloan

Jerry Chang is one of the most personable and well-informed individuals I have had the pleasure of knowing, traits that serve him well as a representative of the Government of Taiwan, a little successful democracy nestled in the shadow of a communist behemoth that doesn’t want it represented at all.

Jerry has spent the past several years as Director General of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Denver – the equivalent of a consul general for what would be a consulate had Jimmy Carter not decided that was too offensive to Chinese Communist sensibilities. Jerry leaves Denver this week, headed to a new job within Taiwan’s foreign service, having ably represented his proud and successful nation over six states in the Midwest. His successor will no doubt be equally suited to the task of making the case for the people of Taiwan, especially since, more than most nations, Taiwan simply cannot afford incompetence in its diplomatic corps. I will nevertheless miss my periodic lunches with Jerry, who would bring me up to speed on what his country is doing, and what it is facing.

What it is facing, of course, is the constant aggression of Red China, the shackles from which the Taiwanese people freed themselves in the middle of the last century. Not only the ongoing military threat, but the constant, almost childish diplomatic, economic, and political aggression – bullying other governments from establishing official diplomatic relations with Taipei, for instance, or sending boorish letters to anyone who dares refer to Taiwan as anything other than “province of China”, a fairy tale that Beijing clings to like a crazy neighbor who thinks the cat is a CIA informant.

The events in eastern Europe have brought renewed focus on Taiwan. There has been considerable speculation, unsurprisingly, that Taiwan could be next on the totalitarian world’s chopping block. Xi Jinping, we all know, cozied up to Vlad Putin in the days leading up to the invasion, and the speculation is that China is looking at Russia’s exercise in Ukraine with an eye to its applicability to their own aggressive designs. There are certainly parallels: both Russia and China are authoritarian, and (at least ostensibly) powerful nations with hegemonic dreams and an inclination to bully their neighbors; both are products of the worst experiment in human history, Russia a saprophytic entity growing out of the carcass of the communist system, China still mired in it, and increasingly sinking back into its depths; and both view their smaller neighbors – Ukraine and Taiwan – not as autonomous nations but as extensions of the homeland.

So it’s helpful now and then to be reminded of the differences. The main geographical one is obvious – Taiwan is separated from China by the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait that naturally precludes a land invasion, not to mention frustrates China’s ability to field a true blue-water navy. The opening armed move of any Chinese invasion would be an air and naval war, and the Russian air force can testify that is a much easier proposition on paper than in the air. And Taiwan boasts a far more technologically-advanced military than Ukraine, another difference that ought to augment the nightmares Chinese generals must be experiencing looking at the quagmire their Russian counterparts are digging for themselves.

Another hinges on the status of Taiwan’s alliances. In terms of any cooperative defensive arrangements, Ukraine was essentially on its own. It is not a NATO member, the UN is as pointless as it’s ever been, and there wasn’t much else in play. Conversely, as much as Red China would like to keep Taipei isolated, any attack would trigger a response from the United States and, most likely Australia and Japan as well. The official U.S. strategic position vis-à-vis Taiwan is one of orchestrated ambiguity, which works in Taiwan’s favor inasmuch as it means that Beijing doesn’t know, for certain, how deep America’s commitment to Taiwan’s independence extends. Just that it does exist, which greatly complicates invasion planning.

Finally, on the economic side, it is helpful to remember that, as resource-rich as Ukraine is, Taiwan – particularly its semiconductor industry – is indispensable to the world economy. It is true that China’s integration into global trade would make sanctions against Beijing less effective than those against Moscow – the West would be doing nearly as much damage to itself – but a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would threaten much of the world’s supply of semiconductors. Both the U.S. and China are heavily dependent on them, enough so that China needs to seriously consider the risk to the industry, and the global supply chain that would freeze up immediately, if they were to start bombing, and the U.S. would almost certainly fight to protect it.

Interesting stuff. When we last parted, Director – the hell with it, I’m just going to call him Consul General – Chang was optimistic about his country and America’s commitment to its freedom and independence. I sincerely hope he is right and wish him, and the nation he so nobly represented, well.

Kelly Sloan is a political and public affairs consultant and a recovering journalist based in Denver.

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