Steve Kornacki has worn out another pair of khakis and again shown what an engaging nerd can do with a big board.

Here we are, as this is written the day after this off-year election, and the question must be asked of whether what happened in Virginia could be an ominous indicator of what might befall Colorado Democrats a year hence.

Of course, the odds are against it. As none less than Joe Biden can attest, 12 months are an eternity in our volatile, over-heated politics. And we are talking of two states separated by 1,500 miles or more.

Though for the last decade or longer, Colorado and Virginia have been on a remarkably similar political trajectory. Both reliably red states not that long ago (even if with a shared proclivity for electing Democratic governors), both moved to purple before becoming rather markedly blue.

They may have made for an odd political couple, but it was a pairing nonetheless. As suburban Jefferson and Arapahoe counties led the shift to hard blue, something similar occurred in the D.C. suburbs of Fairfax and Loudoun counties. As northern Colorado titled Democratic, so did the southern Virginia area known as Hampton Roads.

From personal experience a year ago, I can attest that a drive across rural Virginia is not wholly different than traversing western Colorado or the eastern plains when it comes to political signs and sentiment.

And Colorado’s capital city is Denver while Virginia briefly boasted Congressman Denver Riggleman. So there’s that.

Some local Democrats will denounce this comparison and point to the differences. Which are, of course, abundant.

Virginia does not allow incumbent governors to run for reelection. It is a new (or new-ish) cast every four years. Conversely, Colorado has not booted an elected, incumbent governor in 60 years.

It can be said that Democratic nominee (and former Virginia Governor) Terry McAuliffe is a particularly noxious sort, having made his name as a Clinton bagman. But does self-funding Jared Polis really rock it on the warm-and-fuzzy meter?

The blue tribe here will note, correctly, that Colorado in 2020 was even a darker blue than Virginia. Biden carried Colorado by 14 points while winning Virginia by 10. That four-point differential provides some insurance against a Virginia-style reversal – right?

Well, perhaps. But consider that the Virginia gubernatorial race was not even nail-biter close. The GOP nominee, Glenn Youngkin, won by a full 2 points. Republicans also swept down-ballot races and gained control of Virginia’s House of Delegates, overturning a 10-seat Democratic majority.

Though the real testament to the magnitude of this wipeout is found further up the Atlantic coast. New Jersey was not expected to be part of the post-election conversation. Speculation there centered on whether the sacrificial Republican candidate could keep the loss to single digits.

Instead, that GOP nominee, Jack Ciattarelli, was ahead of Democratic Governor Phil Murphy most of the night. Even if Murphy pulls out a nail-chewing win, as appears likely, it will be by tenths of a point. This in a state that has not seen purple in decades and that Biden carried by a hefty 16 points.

Let’s take this a step further. Colorado was a plus-14 Democratic state in 2020 only because of Donald Trump. Without Trump on the ballot, the Democratic advantage is in the 6- to 8-point range. That is still substantial, but not enough to withstand the 2021 wave we just witnessed.

In Virginia, the Democratic campaign plan was to make the election about Trump even in his absence. That strategy failed. Governor-elect Youngkin threaded the needle in keeping his distance from Trump and presenting himself as a far more affable sort without directly taking on the former President or his avid base. It was a delicate dance, neither Cory Gardner fawning submission nor Mitt Romney defiance.

For Democrats, this has to be a jarring alarm. Even in states that dispatched Trump by large margins, voters are not buying what they are selling.

There is a limited audience for a budget-busting, inflation-denying, border-porous, race-centric, gender-bending, morally-superior message. Coupled with COVID fatigue, supply chain breakdowns and the embarrassment of our withdrawal from Afghanistan, this is anything but a winning hand.

Compounding the worry is a President withering, short on resilience and lacking the political skills of his recent Democratic predecessors. The Party’s lot is made worse by the stubborn insistence of many on a faulty read of Biden’s 2020 election. It was a rejection of Trump, surely and blessedly, but also a notable under-performance by Democrats in House and Senate races. Instead of responding with political modesty, Democrats decided to feign a mandate for going big even without the votes to do so.

The price for that miscalculation is now being paid. As we should belatedly put to rest the old adage about all politics being local. The inverse is now true with even local politics being nationalized.

All of this begs the question of whether Colorado Republicans can seize the moment. History would say not. They will instead form a circular firing squad; nominate fringy, unelectable candidates; go full-on Trumpy in a state that never warmed to him; decide their future lies with the likes of Lauren Boebert and Ron Hanks.

But what if?

What if they got their act together? What if they played to win instead of being just hard-right? What if Heidi Ganahl, despite an inauspicious start, could consolidate her party and demonstrate the political skills of Glenn Youngkin, another newcomer? What if Republicans gave her the latitude to run as the businesslike centrist she is, with a compelling personal story for added allure? What if she could embody that rarest of political traits and be genuine?

Republicans handily erased a 10-point deficit in Virginia. And came shockingly close to overcoming a 16-point spread in New Jersey in a race they did not really target.

Can they reverse 14 points and what is presumed to be a permanent Democratic lock here in Colorado? The odds remain long. Suddenly though, it is a possibility worth pondering.