Gov. Jared Polis hinted earlier this week that “a majority” of Coloradans won’t be wearing masks come this summer, while experts said there are too many variables to predict an exact end-date for the most visible of COVID restrictions.

Polis’ comments come as the state’s COVID situation continues to hold steady at relatively low levels compared to the fall. It’s also hot on the heels of Texas announcing it would end its mask mandate and of Polis indicating that vaccines will be available to the general public here as soon as mid-April. 

The governor was somewhat elusive late last week when asked if he would extend his mask order, which is set to expire. But all signs point to an extension of it, at least for the imminent future. 

Though the looming availability of the vaccine has provided a glimpse of the growing light at the end of the tunnel, three experts warned that it’s too early to begin discussing ending the mask mandate.

“The right point to lift it is when we are confident that the epidemic is controlled in the state through a combination of naturally-acquired immunity, vaccination and a tolerable level of transmission control measures,” said Jon Samet, the dean of the Colorado School of Public Health. 

There are variables that further muddy the crystal ball. For one, it’s unclear how prominent new COVID variants will become here. That could rapidly increase spread, which may lead to extended orders, even if vaccines are steadily flowing in.

Glen Mays, also of the public health school, said there’s “some uncertainty about how well the vaccines work against the virus variants, as they spread this will increase the vaccination threshold at which we can achieve herd immunity.” 

There’s also the question of how many Coloradans will choose to be vaccinated. In order to reach herd immunity, the state needs to have at least 70% of its populace vaccinated. 

“Ideally, masks will be one of the last things to go,” said Elizabeth Carlton, also of the Colorado School of Public Health. 

“That said,” she continued, “I am hopeful that we can get to a place where almost all adults in Colorado are vaccinated by early summer, at which point it would be worth revisiting masks mandates.”

Asked about mask mandates Thursday, Denver Mayor Michael Hancock told reporters that the county would continue to follow the science. He threw out “end of summer, early fall” as the rough time period “when I think we’ll turn the corner.” 

Carlton noted that various essential workers — at grocery stores, gyms, airplanes and elsewhere — don’t know who’s been vaccinated. Public health experts have said previously that even when you’re vaccinated, you should continue to act as if you aren’t. That means continuing to follow those public health orders. It’s still yet unclear if a vaccinated person can still carry and transmit the disease. 

“So the simplest solution is to ask everyone to wear masks indoors for now,” she said. “If we can push out vaccines quickly and vaccine uptake is high, we could get to a point where that calculus changes.”