El Paso County must move to “red” high-risk status from “orange” severe-risk status on the state’s COVID-19 dial effective Friday evening, a move that closes restaurants for indoor dining and reduces offices and gyms to 10% capacity.

On Monday the state health department notified the county of the move, due to high levels of COVID-19 transmission in the community, as well as positivity rate among those tested and strained hospital capacity within the county, according to a Monday press release from El Paso County Public Health.

“Most indoor activities will be prohibited or strictly limited, and outdoor activities are encouraged as an alternative,” the county said in the release.

The move bans indoor dining at restaurants and limits outdoor dining to groups from the same household. Take-out, to-go orders and curbside delivery will still be allowed. Under level orange, restaurants were allowed to offer indoor dining, with a cap of 25% capacity or 50 people, whichever was less.

The move also bans indoor events and personal gatherings. Under level orange, indoor events were capped at 50 people, and personal gatherings capped at 10 from two households maximum.

Offices will be capped at 10% capacity, with remote work strongly encouraged, down from 25%. Gyms will be capped similarly.

The demotion will take effect at 5 p.m. on “black Friday,” after most shopping is likely done for the day. The move does not, however, affect retailers, which are still allowed 50% capacity, under state guidelines.

As of Monday the county had a COVID-19 incidence level of 1,150 per 100,000 over a two-week period and a positive rate of nearly 15%, triple the upper limit recommended by the World Health Organization for communities wishing to reopen this spring. 

The county’s hospital status was red, meaning capacity is strained, according to data on the county health department’s website.

As of Monday 20 Colorado counties were already classified as “red,” including Denver, Jefferson, Douglas, Adams, Broomfield, Boulder, Arapahoe, Weld, Pueblo and Alamosa.

A week ago such a classification would have meant a countywide “stay at home order” like the one seen statewide last spring. On Tuesday, however, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis introduced a new level of the state’s coronavirus dial, “purple,” which became the lockdown phase. Under the new dial framework, counties would only qualify for a stay-at-home order, or level “purple,” if hospital capacity “risks being breached,” according to a new chart released by the state.

Once a county exceeds metrics for its current color/risk level, it enters into a two-week grace period and begins a conversation with state officials about mitigation efforts. However, some counties have languished in levels they’ve long surpassed levels for, with no answers from officials on why they haven’t been downgraded beyond the process being complicated, and large workloads at the state health department.

As of Monday the county’s two-week incidence rate had been at a qualifying level for red classification for three weeks, according to data on the county’s website.

The state announced that the county would move to level “orange” on Nov. 11, when it had already qualified for the level for almost a month. It accounted that the county would be moved to “yellow” on Nov. 4, when it had already qualified for “orange” for nearly three weeks and had met the benchmark disease incidence rate for a stay-at-home order for two days.

Colorado Springs Mayor John Suthers expressed doubt Monday that closing indoor dining and other new formal restrictions would successfully change the rise in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, because it is mainly informal gatherings that are responsible for spreading the virus, he said.

He noted that the move to level orange that lowered occupancy in restaurants and gyms as of Nov. 13 has not changed the trend in El Paso County. In general, the color-coded system has not earned or inspired public confidence, he said.

“I am becoming increasingly pessimistic that the government restrictions are going to solve this problem,” he said.

He also said he does not think that level red’s prohibition on informal gatherings is realistic or enforceable.

“The government is not going to knock on your door on Thanksgiving Day,” he said.

However, the rise in the number of patients in regional hospitals is concerning, and residents need to make responsible decisions to stem the spread of the virus, he said.

“We just have to have a higher resolve to do the right thing,” Suthers said.

Gazette reporter Mary Shinn contributed to this report.