New daily cases of COVID-19 in Colorado are potentially on a downward trend – good news ahead of the holidays – but officials say it’s too early to know if several days of lower numbers foretell a true drop in cases or merely a temporary fluctuation.

On Sunday new daily cases in the state totaled 3,519, down from a peak of 5,709 Wednesday, and an all-time high of 6,583 on Nov. 12.

Daily case counts have been on the decline since Thursday, and hospital intensive care unit bed usage has been on a mostly downward trend since Saturday, data show. On Monday ICU bed usage in the state was at 80%, down from 86% on Thursday. And on Sunday the percentage of COVID tests performed in the state that came back positive was 11.83%, down from a peak of 12.88% on Nov. 18, according to state data.

Transmission rates also appear to be dropping, with the average COVID-positive Coloradan passing the virus on to another 1.4 people, down from 1.7 people the week before, according to a Friday report from the state’s COVID-19 Modeling Group, which is made up of experts in multiple disciplines at universities throughout the state.

If the state continues to follow current trends, it will could reach surge capacity in January – not December, as previously forecast this month, the report states.

But “answers are very uncertain at the present,” Dr. Jon Samet, dean of the Colorado School of Public Health and member of the modeling group, said in a Monday email to The Gazette.

“Would be great if there were at least a plateau heading into the holidays,” he wrote. “The next few weeks are critical as we will see the combined consequences of the measures taken in the 20 ‘red’ counties, hopefully a response of the public to the surging epidemic, and mixing over the holidays. Not sure where the balance will be.”

It’s too early to say if the state is seeing a drop or plateau in cases, Samet said, adding that such improvements would be “helpful” ahead of expected holiday gatherings and a predicted subsequent surge, and that more should be known by Wednesday.

On Monday the state announced it had been chosen by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Operation Warp Speed to participate in a “pilot run” of a logistics readiness test for for COVID-19 vaccine distribution. The test will entail state health officials identifying a provider location to receive a test vaccine shipment and a thermal shipper with mock vaccine kits, according to a Monday news release from the state.

A second test will be held next week, but Colorado will not participate in that one, the release stated.