Joe Biden, the political bystander hunkered down in his basement, is on track to be President.

It’s a long way from a done deal. But just 10 weeks, very long weeks for sure, after having been written off, you have to like his chances.

Seldom has there been such a sudden reversal of political fortune. In mid-February, following no-show defeats in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, the thought of Biden as the consensus Democratic choice was fanciful. He was yesterday’s news in a party looking to the left or the young. The nomination fight figured to be a long, contentious battle with even the real prospect of a brokered convention.

And all for the right to face an emboldened incumbent – vulnerable, surely – but fully intending to boast of a robust and growing economy.

My, how times change. A quick, Shermanesque march through South Carolina led to a consolidation in party ranks. Just 72 hours later, Sanders and Warren were summarily dispatched on Super Tuesday. It was all over so swiftly. A party fueled with Trump antipathy had little appetite for ideological warfare. The idea of turning the generational page was for another day.

And then, a viral pandemic. And economic calamity. And a president in his first real test who indulged his worst instincts and seemed unsure, underprepared and overmatched.

If Joe Biden goes on to claim the Oval Office in an election exactly a half year away, it will be because of who he isn’t rather than who he is. He gained the nomination by being not Bernie Sanders and may well claim the ultimate prize by being not Donald Trump.

A very fortunate bystander, for sure.

Many Democratic chatterers are anxious that Biden is failing to seize the moment; that his online operation is sub-par; that he is stuck in his Delaware basement while Trump roams the White House Briefing Room.

All concerns to which Biden should give little mind. For now, it’s best to get out of the way and adhere to the maxim first attributed to Napoleon: “Never interfere with the enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself.”

Let Trump have the stage. And the rope.

The president’s deficits are on full display. His central argument for re-election is long gone and not likely to return. The polling tells the story. Trump’s rally-round-the-president bounce during the first days of the crisis was minimal and quickly disappeared.

Trump’s approval numbers are now languishing back in his customary low 40s. When asked about the trajectory of the country, voters respond by almost a two-to-one margin that we’re on the “wrong track” as opposed to moving in the “right direction.” That is toxic territory for any incumbent.

Polls in battleground states are even more telling. Biden enjoys consequential leads in all-important Pennsylvania and Michigan, and a marginal advantage in Wisconsin. He’s up in Ohio and close to even in Arizona and, yes, Texas.

Let’s be clear: Those latter states are icing on the cake. If Biden carries Ohio and is even within shouting distance in reliably red America, it is an indication that he’s sweeping the states he needs to win.

Of course, Biden can lose loft just as quickly as he gained it. His biggest risks can be designated the three H’s – hands, Hunter and health.

He will likely navigate the Tara Reade allegations, given that we’ve now conclusively proven that the “believe every woman” mantra only applies to allegations against political opponents, not allies. But he can ill afford another credible charge of excessive handsiness or nuzzling or worse. Social distance it must be.

No matter how close the Biden family, the candidate had better hope that the Trump opposition research file labelled “Hunter” is not too thick or the particulars too damning. Most important is Biden’s health. Given the question marks around his age and capacity, a serious health scare would create a political frenzy. Better to stay in that basement a while longer. And wear the mask.

Much ink is being spilled – and wasted – over Biden’s choice of a vice presidential candidate. The last veep candidate to truly deliver a key state was Lyndon Johnson 60 years ago. So long as Biden chooses within the lines, this will be of little consequence come November. There is no reason for him to reach too far (think Dan Quayle) or throw a Hail Mary (hello Sarah Palin).

If his choice is to be made by political calculus, he should keep his eye firmly fixed on those upper Midwest swing states. But he is free to indulge his self-professed idea of personal rapport and “simpatico.” In terms of racial politics, a Democratic Party obsession, don’t forget that Biden’s de facto running mate will be none other than Barack Obama.

If anything can be safely said about Donald Trump, it’s that he won’t go down without a fight, in this case a full-blown battle royale. He defied the experts and the odds once. But it appears decreasingly likely that he can thread that electoral needle a second time.

Four years ago, late-deciding voters broke starkly Trump’s way. Their prevailing sentiment was some version of, “what the hell, let’s give it a shot.” But now he is the unhappy status quo. This time out, those pivotal late-deciders are likely to rebel against the idea of four more, endless years of noise, tumult and insult.

Joe Biden may not be the boldest choice. His limitations are evident and his political prime may be even behind him. But politics is all about timing and contrast. At the end of his career, the stars look to have finally aligned. His presentation of calm competence can be like a warm blanket to a tired and ailing country.

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. His column appears regularly on Sundays in ColoradoPolitics. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann