“Because I said so.”

Remember when your mom used that explanation for why she was telling you something you didn’t like? 

Maybe she’d gotten tired of answering your questions or may have even seen it as challenging her authority. 

While that sort of authoritarian response from a parent to a 5-year-old may have been acceptable, as adults, we should be skeptical when we get this type of response from our government. Yet, that’s exactly what we Coloradans have received for over a month during the COVID-19 crisis.  

When Gov. Jared Polis announced his doomsday scenario during his March 26 press conference, in which he asserted that as many as 33,000 Coloradans could die by June 1 due to COVID-19, there were immediate questions: 

Why did Polis claim that the transmission rate for COVID-19 in Colorado was so much higher than about 1.5, as it is in other regions? What was the evidence?

Why did the projected case fatality rate for Colorado seem so much higher than elsewhere?  (In order to approach 33,000 fatalities, over 3 million cases would have had to occur in our state, given the fatality rates we are starting to see – under 1% – after accounting for the likely level of unreported cases around the U.S.)  

What were the details of the epidemiological model being used to make these projections? What validation had been done to prove it was accurate?

Why did the state hospital association claim that the alternative model from the Institute for Health Metric and Evaluation (IHME), which projected much lower fatalities (approximately 2,000 at the time), was invalid, even though it seemed to fit the actual data?

What were the metrics being used to validate the governor’s actions?  How many ICU beds were actually in use?  How many ventilators were actually needed?  What was the economic impact of Polis’ lockdown on the state of Colorado and the terror that was instilled into many Coloradans?  

Despite many efforts to obtain the details that justified Polis’ actions, the state was unwilling to be transparent. Even when some information was finally made available on April 6 by the COVID-19 Modeling Group, many details were missing. And, until very recently, there was no tracking of the actual burden on the health care system – i.e., the number of ICU beds occupied or the number of ventilators in use.  

It has been impossible to determine whether the horrible costs of the governor’s actions were justified or, in fact, whether the threat was ever as severe as Polis had claimed.    

When scientists address an important challenge such as projecting the path of a pandemic, they typically understand that a rigorous approach is critical.  Every step must be carefully documented and reviewed to assure that the best possible analysis occurs.  At the same time, scientists are typically happy to share their work – they are justifiably proud of their accomplishments. Transparency is their watch word.  

That’s what makes the approach by Gov. Polis so strange.  Not only has there been no accountability, but also no transparency.  There has been no attempt to engage the public except to say “because I said so.”  

And, as the story has evolved, it appears pretty certain that Polis completely overreacted.  

Numerous hospital beds at the Convention Center and the Loveland Ranch have been built but never used.  The demand for ventilators and ICU beds never exceeded about 40% or 50% of the availability.  

And, even at the peak of Colorado’s caseload, less than 900 hospital beds (out of 20,000) have been occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients, with a few hundred more occupied by unconfirmed cases, as we have noted in our in-depth analysis published on our website.

There is also a growing body of evidence that the fatality rate is much lower than was initially estimated given the acknowledged incomplete reporting of COVID-19 cases.  And, yet, much of the population of our state has been locked at home in fear – afraid to leave home because of the doomsday scenario that the governor promised.  

As we move into the next phase of this pandemic, citizens must demand accountability. Whether in Weld or Eagle counties, which are opening quickly, or in Denver and its suburbs, where things are moving much more slowly, we must ask for and receive the evidence for the decisions as well as the metrics for their affirmation.  

Transparency is crucial to regaining the confidence of the populace. 

Dave Kisker, Ph.D., is a retired scientist and founder of People United for Responsible Government, a multipartisan watchdog organization that demands accountability and transparency in government. Lesley Hollywood is a Colorado-based citizen activist who has been dedicated to holding government accountable on issues that span the political spectrum for over a decade.