One of the nation’s top election forecasters shifted Colorado’s U.S. Senate race  from “toss-up” to “tilts Democratic” this week, citing the Republican incumbent’s uphill battle in a state increasingly leaning toward the Democrats.

Inside Elections, a nonpartisan publication from Nathan Gonzales, moved three of this year’s 35 Senate contests in the Democrats’ direction in its April edition, including the Colorado seat held by Republican U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner.

While Gardner’s challenger won’t be designated until the June 30 primary, the rating site says former Gov. John Hickenlooper, the leading Democratic candidate, has the upper hand despite some weaknesses Republicans hope to exploit.

“The numbers simply aren’t in Gardner’s favor,” Inside Elections writes. “Beyond the recent presidential results, Hickenlooper received more votes in 2014 than Gardner, and Republican Walker Stapleton lost his 2018 gubernatorial race by 10 points, even though he received 100,000 more votes than Gardner in 2014.”

Another leading nonpartisan election rating site, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, made a similar judgment in late February, moving Colorado from a “toss-up” race to one that “leans Democratic.”

Gardner, who ended the year with a little more than twice as much money in the bank as Hickenlooper, is banking on a campaign devoted to local issues, the site says, such as spearheading the Bureau of Land Management headquarters move from Washington, D.C., to Grand Junction.

“But with seven months left in the race,” Inside Election states, “Gardner is losing to Hickenlooper.”

Gardner’s fate could be tied to President Donald Trump’s shifting political outlook as the national economy suffers historic losses in the face of the coronavirus crisis, which accounts for the forecaster’s movements benefiting the Democrats in key races.

“Ultimately, it could all come back to the economy,” Inside Elections says. “Even if voters don’t blame Trump for the pandemic or blame his response, a weak economy leaves independent voters without a reason to overlook the president’s tweets and personal style. That will make it more difficult for Trump to recreate his 2016 victory and put pressure on GOP senators who have chosen to align themselves with the president.”

Gardner is among Trump’s closest allies, a bond reinforced in late February when Trump told the crowd that Gardner “has been with us 100%” at a massive campaign rally in Colorado Springs.

In order to take the majority in the chamber, Democrats have to net four Senate seats in November or gain three seats and the White House.

Should he win the primary, Republicans believe Hickenlooper will have difficulty winning over “disaffected” Democratic voters who support other candidates – including former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, nonprofit executive Lorena Garcia and former congressional candidate Stephany Rose Spaulding – and could face scrutiny from voters over a smoldering ethics complaint.

Concludes Inside Elections: “Gardner can win this race, but to continue to rate it as a toss-up is overstating the senator’s chances of winning a second term.” Gardner, the site says, “has been trailing Hickenlooper in the race for months and it will be difficult for him to climb back with the state’s political lean, and likely the national political environment, working against him.”