Black Swan is apparently on the menu this holiday season for people across the cattle and beef value chains. Last week, Tyson announced the closure of a processing plant in Lexington, Nebraska. This plant processes about 5,000 head of cattle daily and employs more than 3,200 people. In a town like Lexington, this closure realistically directly affects up to nearly half of the population as employees or their families.

The facility is a large campus that, prior to processing beef, was a New Holland combine plant. Patton said the infrastructure is in place for a number of different types of industry and he hopes Tyson will show a “shred of community compassion” and not allow the facility to merely sit idle.

The work force that has shown up for multiple shifts every day to do the unseen work of breaking carcasses down into saleable cuts is in high demand. Sustainable Beef, JBS, Gibbon Packing, and even Butterball have worked to schedule interviews and job fairs to scoop up the displaced workers. Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen has touted the resilience of the state’s cattle industry and appears to be supportive of emerging opportunities to reorganize and boost capacity at other plants in the state. None of this is good news for Lexington though.

These are, of course, the same workers who shouldered COVID and the crazy effect that had on the packing industry. Line speeds were decreased, worker absences were abundant and panic purchasing (and a shortage of grocery workers) left many shelves empty. There’s no shortage of criticism cast on the packing industry, but it is a well-oiled machine producing traceable, safe protein as an art. That is due in great part to the men and women who show up every shift, don their hard hats and white coats, and perfectly carve consistently cut pieces of retail beef from carcasses. They are incredibly talented, skilled workers and any doubt about the skill packing requires should be silenced after witnessing the annual carving of a turkey last week. The towns supported by meat packing, like Lexington, Greeley, Fort Morgan and others are diverse because there are quite literally nearly 20 languages spoken in many plants.

Of course, this will also deeply affect the cattle industry. The Lexington plant, to the best of my understanding, processes primarily beef for export. There’s plenty of competition for the high-quality northern cattle in Nebraska and surrounding states, including Colorado, between JBS, Cargill and a smattering of mid-sized processors including Sustainable Beef, which I wrote about a few weeks ago. The closure of the southern border has, to no one’s surprise, lowered the supply of beef and with the demand steady and consistent, cattle producers received record high prices. Until they didn’t.

We were hauling fresh weaned calves home the day my friends in agriculture news reported President Donald Trump’s intention — or at least comments about — importing Argentinian beef. The price for the calves on our trailers was dropping by the mile. We’re lucky though that we’re nimble enough to feed the calves and retain them until prices improve, which we are.

Then, Trump announced a Department of Justice investigation into the Big Four packers. Timing is a booger, and the president again missed the mark. Investigate them if you must, otherwise, let them do their jobs because the cattle and beef producers and consumers depend upon them.

Going into 2024, ag economists were bemoaning the low numbers of the nation’s cow herd and advising the U.S. would have to import ground beef to meet supply until cow herd numbers could rebound, a process that isn’t fast. This year, aging producers have chosen to sell heifers rather than retain them. Calving first calf heifers is similar to herding cats or supervising an all-night rave with hopped up 13-year-old girls. It’s labor intensive and emotionally, physically and mentally exhausting… for the cattle producers, too. It’s truly a young guy’s game and one many aging cattle producers aren’t eager to play when they can sell those heifers for high prices. That certainly slows the herd rebuilding. At day’s end, a closure notice that resembles a Dear John letter scrawled on a mirror in red lipstick is far less than these workers, their families and the communities they are a part of deserve. There isn’t a business or industry in Lexington, Nebraska, that will go unscathed by this closure, especially announced a week before Thanksgiving. Windows of homes will remain dark, gifts will go unpurchased, inventory will go untouched in a plethora of businesses, and in January when kids return to school, there will be no more powerful picture of the effect of this decision than the little desks and chairs sitting empty.

Rachel Gabel writes about agriculture and rural issues. She is assistant editor of The Fence Post Magazine, the region’s preeminent agriculture publication.