Colorado Voter Guide: 2024 General Election

The 24th vote in the Colorado Senate is the golden ticket Democrats are chasing this election season.

Democrats hold a 23-12 majority in the chamber and a 46-19 advantage in the House.

That 24th vote would give Democrats the first supermajority — or two-thirds — in state history. With a supermajority in both chambers, which includes 44 seats in the House, Democrats could send constitutional amendments to voters without a single Republican vote. They could override gubernatorial vetoes, which Gov. Jared Polis has not been shy about handing out over the last six years.

Since taking office in 2019, Polis has vetoed 32 bills, including 10 in 2023, the high watermark.

What could Democrats do with a supermajority?

They could, in theory, start pushing back against Gov. Jared Polis’ preferences.  

For example, perhaps no bills in 2024 got the ire of fellow Democrats more than three labor-related bills that earned a veto from Polis. All three had strong support from Democrats, above the two-thirds threshold in the House and just a vote or two shy of a supermajority in the Senate.

Supporters said HB 24-1008 would have put more teeth into protecting employees of general contractors from wage theft, frequently union jobs. It won a straight party-line 23-12 vote in the state Senate and 43-17 in the House, one shy of the two-thirds majority, due to two absent Democrats on the day of the final vote and who would have been expected to vote for it.

HB 24-1260 would bar an employer from threatening to either discipline or fire an employee who refuses to attend employer-mandated training on religious or political matters. It passed on a straight party-line vote in the Senate with one Democratic “no” vote from House Speaker Julie McCluskie, D-Dillon, in the House.

Seen as a union jobs bill, HB24-1307 required school HVAC installation and maintenance using federal funds to be completed by certified contractors. It passed 22-13 with one Democratic “no” vote from Sen. Dylan Roberts, D-Dillon, and on a 45-18 vote in the House, with one representative from each party absent.

Union supporters and their allies cried foul over Polis’ vetoes, claiming he had abandoned labor.

“The actions of Governor Polis are an attack on working Coloradans and their communities,” said Dennis Dougherty, executive director of Colorado AFL-CIO, in a statement from the BlueGreen Alliance last May.

“Gov. Polis turned his back on us,” read one pro-union banner at a rally to protest the vetoes last May.

A supermajority in the Senate could have gotten at least two of those bills past a gubernatorial veto. The sponsors of those bills in the House and Senate are all expected to return for the 2025 session.

The veto threat has kept other Democratic-sponsored measures from making it to the governor’s desk. In 2023 and 2024, a ban on assault weapons and a bill to create sites where users can inject or ingest prohibited substances both failed early on, under worries the governor would reject them.

While in theory a supermajority would give Democrats the power to override a veto, it remains to be seen whether they would actually exercise that power and effectively embarrass their party mate at the top of the ticket.

Outgoing Senate President Steve Fenberg, D-Boulder, downplayed the notion of a supermajority, telling Colorado Politics he’s always been more concerned with quality than numbers.

He added that, even with a supermajority, Democrats don’t always agree on everything. And the notion of a supermajority is more useful as a tool for Republicans to fundraise from, he added.

The crucial Senate contests

While 18 seats are up for election next week, just five will determine whether Democrats get to that 24th seat.

Republicans expect to flip the Weld-Adams Senate District 13 seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Kevin Priola of Henderson. Priola changed parties two years ago, leading to calls for his resignation and a brief, failed attempt at a recall. After redistricting, the newly drawn Senate District 13 leans Republican by 3.7%.

Senate District 12, on the other hand, is held by Sen. Bob Gardner, R-Colorado Springs. Gardner, like Priola, is term limited. Despite a 2.4% Republican lean, Democratic Rep. Marc Snyder of Manitou Springs is expected to win the seat. The Senate Majority Fund spent $1.5 million to support his Republican opponent, Stan Vanderwerf, in the last two weeks.

The outcome? Likely a zero-sum game.

Three others races, as demonstrated by the spending in these races, could determine whether Democrats gain a supermajority: Senate District 5 and Senate District 6 in the Western Slope, and Centennial’s Senate District 16.

Senate District 6 is held by Republican Sen. Cleave Simpson, R-Alamosa, who faces Democratic challenger Vivian Smotherman of Durango. The district covers the southern half of the Western Slope and extends east to Alamosa. Outside groups are spending more to back Simpson and almost not at all for Smotherman, indicating that Simpson may have the advantage on Nov. 5.

Senate District 13 is held by Democratic Sen. Chris Kolker of Centennial, who faces Republican Robyn Carnes. Outside spending in the race heavily favors Kolker.

If Simpson and Kolker kept their seats, the question might come down to Senate District 5, a seat being given up by Republican Sen. Perry Will of New Castle, who’s instead running for Garfield County commissioner.

Republican Rep. Marc Catlin of Montrose, who earned a rare accolade by being named vice-chair of the House Agriculture, Water and Natural Resources Committee by two House speakers, is term-limited. He is now running for the Senate seat. He faces Democratic candidate Cole Buerger of Glenwood Springs.

Big money is being spent by outside groups on this contest. For Catlin, the Senate Majority Fund has spent an unprecedented $1.7 million on the race since Oct. 10 and a total of $3.36 million on four of the five Senate races at the same time.

All Together Colorado, the primary independent expenditure group for Senate Democrats, has spent $1.46 million in support of Buerger during the same period.

Senate Minority Leader Sen. Paul Lundeen, R-Monument, doesn’t believe the 24th seat will drop into the Democrats’ laps.

“We don’t expect that,” he said. “We expect we’ll stay out of the super minority and doing everything we can.”

That’s resonating with the people of Colorado, as well as funders, he said.

“Our effort to maintain the lever of authority we have in the state Senate is resonating with voters,” he said, adding that people are struggling with kitchen table issues and are opposed to how the economy has been handled.

He noted that, in the past, Democrats have outraised Republicans for spending on legislative races,  but that is not the case this year.

The Senate Majority Fund reported spending $3.5 million through Oct. 23, while All Together reported spending $2.9 million.

The road to a House supermajority

Democrats’ task in the 2024 election is to hold onto 44 seats to keep that supermajority, which they gained with the five additional seats they won in the 2022 “wave” year.

Outside groups have been spending millions to decide control of at least five seats. Still, Republican-leaning independent expenditure groups appear to be spending more in the campaign’s final two weeks than their Democratic counterparts in virtually every competitive race.

The hottest race will likely be House District 43, where Democratic Rep. Bob Marshall of Highlands Ranch pulled off an upset in 2022 in a district with a 7.4% Republican lean. Marshall won by 405 votes, the closest race in the state, and became the first Democrat to represent the northern Douglas County district.

Marshall, who is running for his second term, faces Republican Matt Burcham.

Meanwhile, in House District 19, of Weld and eastern Boulder counties, former Republican Rep. Dan Woog of Erie faces first-time candidate Jillaire McMillan, also of Erie.

McMillan had just 110 days to put together a campaign after Democratic Rep. Jennifer Parenti announced she would not run for a second term, an announcement made after the June 25 primary.

A vacancy committee chose McMillan to replace Parenti. In 2022, Woog lost to Parenti, who was also a first-time candidate, by 1,467 votes. The district leans slightly toward Republicans, at 1.9%, and Republican-leaning outside groups have spent over $400,000 to either support Woog or oppose McMillan, who has garnered little backing from Democratic-leaning committees.

Meanwhile, spending is also hot in House District 25. Two years ago, Rep. Tammy Story, D-Evergreen, surprised political observers by winning the seat. The commission had redrawn the district for a 1.8% Democratic lean, but it was represented by Rep. Colin Larson, R-Littleton, who was expected to become the next House Minority Leader.

This year, Story faces former police chief George Mumma. Spending by outside groups favors Mumma.

In the Colorado Springs-based House District 16, Rep. Stephanie Vigil faces Republican Rebecca Keltie next week in an area that leans 3.1% Republican.

Finally, outside groups are spending big on both sides in House District 50, where Rep. Mary Young, D-Greeley, is running for her fourth and final term against Republican Ryan Gonzalez in a district that leans Democrat at 6.1%.

Spending by groups for House and Senate races in the last three weeks has topped $7 million.

Will it work?

The supermajority is only as good so long as everyone sticks together. Officially, it’s illegal for lawmakers to take caucus positions. And sometimes, the governor is seen as a backstop — and policymakers are relieved to see a bill vetoed, though they may not publicly say so.   

Senate Majority Leader Sen. Robert Rodriguez, D-Denver, told Colorado Politics he doesn’t see Democrats getting into fights over vetoes with Polis, something he said could be “egregious.”

But Rodriguez said a 24th seat would give the caucus a greater voice and more understanding of things in different parts of the state, with the potential addition of two more Western Slope Democratic senators in addition to Roberts.

“I care about rural communities and ag, and it’s always been portrayed that we don’t care. Having those voices would show we do care,” he said.

Senate President Pro tem James Rashad Coleman of Denver said a supermajority to him means just one more Democrat.

Coleman, who aims to become the next Senate president, said, “It’s great to have one more Democrat in the chamber.”

But he added: “It’s only beautiful if we do our work, engaging with our communities and the governor. It’s one additional vote that aligns with our values. We will appreciate the authority we have.”

However, in the last two sessions, even with a supermajority in the House, not everyone has agreed in both the House and Senate.

In 2023, moderate Senate Democrats shot down Polis’ most significant legislative proposal, the omnibus housing bill.

In the House, the June 25 primary took a little of the steam out of the progressive caucus in the state House, losing Reps. Tim Hernandez and Elisabeth Epps, who are both from Denver.

Republican consultant Dick Wadhams said even with the loss of Hernandez and Epps, a supermajority in both chambers would empower the far-left wing of the Democratic Party.

“The bottom line is that element of the Democratic Party is alive and well and growing. Democrats, even mainstream Democrats, will be looking over their shoulder at primary challenges. It wouldn’t take much pressure to cave on fundamental issues that could pass with a supermajority in both chambers.”

That’s the reality of what Democrats are dealing with, Wadhams said.