Colorado’s toss-up 8th Congressional District appears to be living up to its billing, according to a new poll released Wednesday that showed Democratic incumbent Yadira Caraveo tied with Republican Gabe Evans.

The survey of 525 likely voters, conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 1 by Emerson College Polling for Denver TV stations FOX31 and Channel 2, found Caraveo and Evans in a dead heat, with each pulling 44% support and 12% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is 4.2 percentage points.

“Republicans break for Evans, 86% to 10%, Democrats support Caraveo 87% to 4%, while independents are more split, breaking in the favor of Evans, 43% to 35%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement.

Kimball added that Caraveo wins Hispanic voters 42% to 33%, while White voters narrowly favor Evans, 47% to 46%.

Evans, a first-term state lawmaker from Fort Lupton, is challenging Caraveo, a pediatrician and former state lawmaker from Thornton, who won the newly created seat two years ago by fewer than 1 percentage point in one of the closest congressional races in the country. This year, national Democrats and Republicans are targeting the district and say it could determine which party controls the chamber after the November election.

It’s the first publicly released poll by a neutral outside party in the nearly evenly divided district this cycle. In April, a poll funded by a Republican PAC conducted by Terrance Group, a GOP firm, turned up nearly identical results, with the two candidates locked in a statistical tie.

The district, created ahead of the 2022 election after Colorado gained a seat following the census, includes portions of Adams, Weld and Larimer counties north of the Denver metro area, from Thornton and Commerce City to Greeley. When the new lines were drawn, the seat boasted the state’s largest share of Hispanic residents, at 38.5%.

The district’s voters have favored Democratic candidates by a slim 1.3 percentage point margin in recent elections, according to the state’s redistricting commission, The 8th CD’s voters have also swung from election to election, favoring Donald Trump narrowly in 2016 and backing Joe Biden by a larger margin in 2020.

According to the new Emerson poll, Caraveo is viewed favorably by 43% of voters and unfavorably by 40%, while 17% haven’t heard of her. Evans scores higher on favorability, with 49% saying they hold a favorable view of him, 33% unfavorable and 18% unfamiliar.

The poll also asked voters to name the most important issue facing Colorado. The economy topped the list with 28% of voters choosing the issue, followed by housing affordability at 21%, immigration at 21%, threats to democracy at 9%, crime at 7% and abortion access at 3%.

Asked how confident they are that Colorado’s elections are safe and secure, 68% said they were somewhat or very confident, while 32% said they weren’t confident.

“This district was designed to be competitive, and Congresswoman Caraveo’s ability to build coalitions of grassroots support and her bipartisan record is evident,” Caraveo’s campaign manager, Mary Alice Blackstock, told Colorado Politics in a statement.

“The diversity of communities across urban, suburban and rural areas in Adams, Weld and Larimer Counties demand a Representative whose policies don’t go too far right or far left to address the issues they care about.”

Evans’ campaign spokesman Alan Philp said the neck-and-neck results show the district’s voters are ready for a change.

“Yadira Caraveo and her far-left allies outspent Gabe Evans by more than two to one in September, yet Gabe’s momentum continues to grow because this race features such a clear contrast,” Philp told Colorado Politics in an emailed statement.

“Voters are excited to put Gabe Evans’ experience and know-how as a retired cop, U.S. Army veteran, husband, and father to work to secure the southern border, end the Colorado crime wave, lower the cost of living, and stop the flood of poisonous fentanyl into the U.S.”

Earlier this summer, nonpartisan election analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up” status, joining other national forecasters who also include the 8th CD among the country’s most competitive districts.

So far, the race between Caraveo and Evans has drawn the vast majority of outside campaign spending in the state this cycle, with national political party groups and PACs sinking more than $13 million into TV commercials, while other outside groups have been pouring money into ads, mailers and canvassing efforts.

Mail ballots start going out to most Colorado voters in just over a week. They’re due back to county clerks by 7 p.m. Nov. 5.