National Republicans were popping their champagne corks early after Lauren Boebert declared she’s scrapping her reelection bid in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District and will instead run for the solidly Republican seat held by retiring U.S. Rep. Ken Buck.

The Garfield County Republican might have been met with a frosty reception from the GOP candidate already running to succeed Buck – one called her a “carpetbagger,” another blasted the move as a “desperate stunt” – but back in Washington, D.C., sources tell Colorado Politics that House Republican leaders and campaign groups celebrated the news.

That’s because the Republican-leaning district she’s leaving behind – covering most of Colorado’s Western Slope and Southern Colorado, including Pueblo County – was at greater risk of flipping to the Democrats with Boebert on the ticket, endangering the GOP’s precarious, single-digit House majority.

The 4th Congressional District that Boebert hopes to represent after next year’s election, on the other hand, is the safest Republican seat in the state. Anchored by suburban Douglas County, the district covers roughly the eastern half of Colorado, also including parts of Larimer and Weld counties and the Eastern Plains.

Boebert acknowledged as much in her surprise announcement on Dec. 27.

“The Aspen donors, George Soros and Hollywood actors that are trying to buy the seat – well, they an go pound sand,” Boebert said in a Facebook video. “We aren’t going to give them the opportunity to steal the 3rd. Republicans will hold the 3rd, and I’ll proudly represent the 4th, and Republicans will be stronger for it.”

Boebert nearly lost her seat in 2022, when Democrat Adam Frisch – a first-time candidate and former Aspen city councilman – came within 546 votes of beating her in a race hardly anyone expected to be close.

Since declaring his bid for a rematch in February, Frisch – the one-time sleeper candidate who almost ousted one of the most prominent MAGA Republicans in the country – has demolished Colorado fundraising records, hauling in nearly three times as much in contributions as Boebert.

Coupled with Boebert’s polarizing, in-your-face brand of politics, the Democrat’s fundraising success – Frisch finished the third quarter with $4.3 million on hand to Boebert’s $1.4 million – prompted the national election forecasters at the Cook Political Report to designate the 2024 race in her district a toss-up, despite the district’s demonstrated preference for Republican candidates.

Colorado’s 3rd CD has a Partisan Voting Index of R+7, according to Cook’s analysis, which means Republicans have a built-in advantage of 7 percentage points in the district, all things being equal.

That compares to a D+17 PVI rating in the Boulder and Larimer County-based 2nd Congressional District – represented by Democrat Joe Neguse, it hasn’t elected a Republican in 50 years – and the El Paso County-based 5th Congressional District’s R+9, held by Republican Doug Lamborn, which has never elected a Democrat.

The 4th CD – Boebert says she plans to move into the district sometime in 2024 – has a PVI of R+13, making it nearly unattainable for a Democrat.

While Boebert won reelection to a second term in the 3rd CD by just over 1/10th of a percentage point, Cook’s Dave Wasserman said this week that without Boebert on the ballot, the seat ought to return to its fundamental character favoring the GOP nominee.

“This is good news for Republicans’ chances of holding onto #CO03, as Boebert was the main reason it was in so much jeopardy,” Wasserman tweeted the day after Boebert announced she was swapping districts. “Will move from Toss Up to Lean R at @CookPolitical.”

Whether Boebert winds up in Congress after next year’s election or not – she’s probably the initial frontrunner in the 4th CD Republican primary, though the crowded field could take months to sort out – her move at least makes it less likely Republicans will have to spend as heavily defending the district she currently represents.

“Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to the national Democrats who spent all year wishing Colorado’s 3rd was winnable,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Delanie Bomar told Colorado Politics in an email. “Republicans will hold this seat.”

Not only does the 3rd District have a habit of electing Republicans – former GOP state lawmaker Scott Tipton occupied the seat for five terms before Boebert knocked him out in the 2020 primary – but the presidential-year could boost Republican turnout beyond the 2022 midterm levels, when Frisch came close to beating the incumbent.

That isn’t set in stone, however.

While Donald Trump, the likely 2024 Republican nominee, won the district by 8 points in 2020, Trump’s margin was nearly cut in half from his 15-point win in the 3rd CD in 2016.

What’s more, as Split Ticket’s Armin Thomas points out, Frisch wasn’t the only Democrat to outperform the 3rd CD’s fundamental partisan lean in the 2022 election.

“‘Boebert is the only reason the seat was in play,'” tweeted Thomas, a political and data analyst who posts under the name Thronogil, calling into question the emerging conventional wisdom.

Observing that Republicans had a decided turnout advantage in the district in last year’s midterms, Thomas noted that Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet trailed Republican nominee Joe O’Dea by just 2 points in the district, while Gov. Jared Polis beat Republican Heidi Ganahl there by 2 points.

Added Thomas: “Come on, man.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which sat out the 2022 race and was as surprised as anyone by Frisch’s near-upset, isn’t ready to concede the district, even without Boebert to run against, spokeswoman Mallory Payne told Colorado Politics.

“Lauren Boebert has been desperately trying and failing to win back voters after consistently embarrassing them – not to mention doing nothing to deliver for Colorado families in Congress,” Payne said in an email.

“Now, as Democrats continue to build momentum in CO-03, Boebert is running scared and doing whatever it takes to stay in DC – even going district shopping and tossing aside her constituents. Democrats will continue to focus on western and southern Colorado families and meeting them where they are as Boebert abandons her district.”

Boebert’s departure leaves two Republicans running for the seat: Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd and Russ Andrews, a Carbondale financial advisor who is largely self-funding his campaign.

A first-time candidate, Hurd has amassed endorsements from a host of current and former elected officials, emblematic of the GOP establishment Boebert has spent her political career trying to push aside.

He told Colorado Politics that he’s on track to defend the seat.

“The race for the 3rd District has always been about who can best fight for our agricultural producers, deliver economic development, protect our energy independence, and serve the voters of the district in a serious and hardworking manner,” Hurd said. “I’m that person. We have the support of elected and previously elected Republicans all over the state and district, and I will fight every day to ensure this seat stays in Republican hands.”

Expect more Republicans to jump in, since Boebert’s most ardent fans are unlikely to warm up to Hurd, whose primary challenge was based on rejecting the incumbent’s flamboyantly confrontational style of politics.

It remains to be seen whether Frisch, who’s been crisscrossing the sprawling district all year, can generate the same enthusiasm – and avalanche of small-dollar donors – without Boebert as a foil.

“We can finally put a stop to Lauren Boebert’s angertainment circus,” Frisch said in a recent fundraising email, echoing the message that helped his campaign raise more money last quarter than any other House challenger in the country.

He sounded a triumphant note after the incumbent’s announcement.

“Boebert is running scared from CD-3 because she knows she can’t match our campaign’s ability to connect with voters and the hard work we have put in to provide them with a common sense voice in Congress,” Frisch said.

“From Day 1 of this race, I have been squarely focused on defending rural Colorado’s way of life, and offering common sense solutions to the problems facing the families of Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District,” he said. “My focus will remain the same, and I look forward to bringing these issues with me to Congress in 2024.”

Frisch faces a primary challenge of his own from Grand Junction Mayor Anna Stout, who told Colorado Politics that Boebert’s move doesn’t change the focus of her campaign.

“Voters in the 3rd Congressional District still care deeply about the same issues that we have cared about all along – protecting our water and natural resources, creating an economy that works for everyone, solving our housing crisis, and fighting to protect rural and small-town Colorado,” Stout said in a text message. “We need a voice that will fiercely advocate for our needs in Congress.”

Ernest Luning has covered politics for Colorado Politics and its predecessor publication, The Colorado Statesman, since 2009. He’s analyzed the exploits, foibles and history of state campaigns and politicians since 2018 in the weekly Trail Mix column.