This has been a tough two years for those Coloradans opposed to TABOR, the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, which limits government taxing and spending in Colorado. But they have been good times for TABOR supporters. The story goes like this:

TABOR was a state constitutional amendment adopted by state voters 31 years ago in 1992. It requires a statewide vote on all state tax increases.

It also requires state revenues must match the previous year’s state revenues and can only be adjusted upward for inflation and population growth.

If extra tax money comes in over the TABOR limits, which happens when the state’s economy booms, it must be returned to the taxpayers by what is called the TABOR refund.

Until lately, TABOR refunds have been relatively small, often less than $100 per taxpayer. The TABOR amendment permitted the taxpayers to vote to let state government spend the TABOR refund on state roads, or lowering public college and university tuitions, or badly needed aid to K-12 public schools,

A few years ago, TABOR refunds per taxpayer were beginning to grow in size, possibly amounting to hundreds of dollars per taxpayer,

The reason for this was the rapid expansion of the Colorado economy. The TABOR amendment did not provide for adjusting the TABOR limits upward for economic expansion. As Colorado enjoyed healthy economic growth, sizable amounts of money began accumulating in the state TABOR refund.

A major event occurred prior to the 2022 general election. Colorado’s Democratic Gov. Jared Polis was up for reelection as were many of the Democratic state legislators who controlled the state legislature.

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To help them win reelection, or at least this is how Republican critics saw it, they distributed all the monies in the TABOR refund to the taxpayers just before the election.

The size of the refunds was substantial. Individual taxpayers received a check for $750 or had that amount deposited in their bank accounts. Married taxpayers received twice that amount – $1,500.

This was a negative development for opponents of TABOR tax limitation. The average taxpayer learned the TABOR refund could put much welcome funds in their bank accounts and do so regularly over a number of years.

Having so much money involved also discouraged taxpayers from voting to let the government keep the money and spend it on state government programs.

Which brings us up to 2023 and Proposition HH.

It was late in the 2023 session of the state legislature, substantial funds had built up in the TABOR refund, and there would be pressure to pay those big refunds back to the taxpayers.

With only one week to go in the legislative session, the Democratic majority in the state legislature took the TABOR refunds for the next 10 years and asked the voters to devote most of that vast amount of money to increased funding for K-12 public education.

It was a last-minute ploy but one that would have paid big dividends for public education if it had worked.

TABOR supporters raised large amounts of money and mounted a vigorous campaign against Proposition HH. They opposed its attempt to distribute the TABOR refund to public education over the next 10 years.

Voters began receiving campaign postcards with photos of TABOR refund checks for $750 and $1,500 being cut in half with scissors or being lighted on fire and going up in flames.

Proposition HH was defeated statewide by a vote of 60% no and 40% yes. The only major places it received a majority vote were Denver, Boulder County and ritzy high-mountain ski areas such as Aspen and Telluride.

This last-minute ploy by the Democratic majority in the state legislature failed to pay off. With a loud voice, voters said they wanted TABOR refunds in their wallets and not spent on government needs such as improving public schools.

Additional bad news for anti-TABOR folks is that next year, 2024, is an election year. There is little likelihood elected officials, particularly in the state legislature, will want to be accused of interfering with taxpayers getting to put their TABOR refunds in their own pockets.

The talk now is he next TABOR refund will be $800 plus for singles and $1,600-plus for married couples.

TABOR has changed. Originally a program for limiting state spending, it has morphed into an involuntary savings system that, every two years or so, distributes sizeable amounts of money to almost every taxpayer in the state.

It is interesting to speculate on the future of the TABOR refund. If the Colorado economy continues to grow, which is expected, the amounts of the TABOR refund will grow larger. It is a reasonable guess that, five years from now, the TABOR refund for individual taxpayers will be more than $1,000 and for married couples $2,000 or more.

The TABOR refund could become a regular source of income taxpayers count upon to meet anticipated future expenses. An example: “We will go on vacation when we get our next TABOR refund.”

To sum up: The really bad news for anti-TABOR forces is that, with TABOR refunds so high, taxpayers will want to collect their TABOR refund rather than vote to use it to solve state problems, such as transportation, higher education and K-12 public schools.

In the rosiest possible scenario, after eight years or so of really strong economic growth in Colorado, the TABOR refund for singles could hit $5,000 and for marrieds $10,000.

Scott Wasserman of the liberal Bell Policy Center, which has long opposed TABOR, is concerned about the large amounts of money the pro-TABOR forces had to spend in their efforts to sabotage Proposition HH. He worries the pro-TABOR forces will come up with new ways to limit state tax revenues and, using their money, will try to get them enacted by the voters in the 2024 election.

Already there is talk of a future ballot proposal putting a cap on increases in property taxes.

This is a good example of “the unintended consequences of reform.” To those who want to keep taxes low, the TABOR amendment was a “reform.”

We sincerely doubt Douglas Bruce, the chief champion of the TABOR amendment, intended it to become a cash cow for the state’s taxpayers, paying them thousands of dollars in unspent taxes in the form of the TABOR refund.

These are good times for anti-tax folks and tough times for those who oppose TABOR restrictions on state revenues. 

Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy are news columnists who write about Colorado and national politics.