State Senate Democrats appear to have taken two seats from incumbent Republicans and are on the verge of expanding their caucus to within a vote of a veto-proof majority. 

Going into Tuesday’s election, Democrats held a 21-14 advantage, which improved after Sen. Kevin Priola, D-Henderson, announced last August he would switch parties. 

Redistricting last November shook up the state Senate map, with seven seats rated as competitive by both sides, and with millions of dollars spent to impact the election results.

State Sen. Paul Lundeen, R-Monument, heads the Senate Majority Fund, the soft money fund that spent a record amount to try to reclaim the state Senate. He told Colorado Politics Tuesday night that in many of the tightest races, many ballots are yet to be counted.

“Tonight’s not over. In many of these state Senate races there are a lot of votes to be counted. Polls closed late in El Paso County, for example, with 32,000 ballots yet to be counted. The story is not complete yet,” he said. 

In Senate District 15, for example, 80,000 ballots are expected to be cast, but as of 9 p.m. about 53,000 votes had been counted. “When you have 50,000 of 80,000 counted, you’re still a long way from home.”

Here is where the seven most competitive seats stand:

Senate District 3: Pueblo

Pueblo County voters appear to be ready to send Sen. Nick Hinrichsen, the Democrat, to his first full term, based on early returns. As of Thursday, Hinrichsen was ahead by 2,614 votes, over Republican Stephen Varela, 52.3% to 47.7%. The district is solely within Pueblo County. 

The seat held by Senate President Leroy Garcia was going to be an open one in 2022, given that Garcia was term-limited. But he took a job with the Department of Defense in February, leaving the door open to Hinrichsen to fulfill his unexpired term, and giving Hinrichsen the role of incumbent heading into November.

The state’s redistricting commission rated the seat with a 5.1% Democratic lean, but the commission used election results from the 2016, 2018 and 2020 elections, in which Democrats won by commanding margins in the races for governor, secretary of state and U.S. Senate. Those election results meant the forecast probably overrated Democratic chances by as much as 5 percentage points.

There were two GOP candidates on the ballot in SD3, Varela, officially the Republican in the race, and write-in candidate Alex Mugatu, also a Republican. 

Fundraising in this blue-collar county was neck-and-neck. Through Oct. 26, Hinrichsen had raised over $152,000, while Varela raised more than $147,000.

But outside groups, known as independent expenditure committees, spent heavily on the Senate races, with the Senate Majority Fund, which backs Senate Republicans, spending the most, including in SD3. 

Senate District 8: northwest and north central mountain counties

Unofficial results show State Rep. Dylan Roberts, the Eagle Democrat, defeated Eagle Republican Matt Solomon by better than 11 percentage points, or 8,117 votes, as of Thursday.

This was an open seat rated with a 6.6% Democratic lean. The district is one of the largest by geography, covering 10 counties from Clear Creek to Moffat, Rio Blanco and Garfield on the Utah state line. Based on unofficial results Roberts appears to have won the district’s largest counties by population: Clear Creek, Summit, Eagle, Gilpin and Routt. 

Roberts’ fundraising haul was more than double that of Solomon’s.

Republicans had pinned hopes on winning this seat as part of the path to control of the state Senate.

Senate District 11: southeast Colorado Springs

The closest race in the state Senate, Democratic state Rep. Tony Exum, Sr. is 2,041 votes ahead of Republican Sen. Dennis Hisey as of Thursday, a lead of 50.6% to 44.2%. If those results hold, that’s a loss of one seat on the Republican side. 

A seat with some of the residency controversies tied to redistricting, the commission, which did not take incumbency into account, drew three state senators into neighboring Senate District 12. Hisey was drawn out of his Senate District 2 seat and into Senate District 12, already occupied by Republican Sen. Bob Gardner, who under state law would keep the seat. Sen. Pete Lee, a Democrat, also was drawn into Senate District 12 and was later charged with residency fraud – a charge dismissed by an El Paso County judge last month.

The redistricting commission rated this seat with a 2.4% Democratic lean.

Hisey rented an apartment in Senate District 11, which was one of several open seats without an incumbent. He still maintains his home in Fountain and is under investigation for allegedly falsifying his residency for purposes of running for state office, as well as for voting irregularities.

Exum, who was term-limited in the House, won a June primary to head to the general election.

Exum led on fundraising, with $170,000 raised through Oct. 26 to Hisey’s $146,000.

Senate District 15: western Larimer and Boulder counties

As of Thursday, Democratic candidate Janice Marchman of Loveland holds a 50.8% to 49.2% advantage of 1,132 votes over incumbent Sen. Rob Woodward, the Loveland Republican. Results show Woodward won Larimer County by just under 5 percentage points, or 2,462 votes. However, it was the district’s portion of Boulder County, where Marchman won by 4,599 votes, that put her over the top.

The only legislative seat in the state without any partisan lean, this district includes Loveland and communities west of Fort Collins and Boulder.

Despite the furious fight for control of the state Senate, and the lack of partisan advantage, neither party nor its soft-money committees invested heavily in this race, leaving it up to the candidates.

Woodward won that race, with more than $283,000 raised to Marchman’s $183,000.

Senate District 20: northern Jefferson County

State Rep. Lisa Cutter of Littleton, who was the first Democrat ever elected to House District 25, is headed to the state Senate to represent this Jefferson County district.

The Associated Press called the race against Republican Tim Walsh in Cutter’s favor around 9:30 Wednesday morning. Unofficial results Thursday show the margin of victory in the 10 percentage point range.

“Jefferson County voters have made their voices loud and clear. In the last three election cycles, they have demonstrated their trust in the Democratic Party to fight for American values, from defending democracy to protecting human rights,” she said. “My opponent and his extremist Republican allies spent over $2,000,000, hoping to buy this seat and the State Senate majority. I’m grateful that Jefferson County voters chose me to represent them at the Colorado Capitol and I’m excited to join the State Senate to fight for Colorado families.”

Outside groups spent millions to try and influence the electorate in the open district.

Walsh loaned his campaign more than $1 million. That gave him the fundraising advantage, with $1.27 million to spend, versus Cutter’s $236,000.

The redistricting commission rated this seat, which covers northern Jefferson County, with a 7.1% Democratic lean.

Senate District 24: Adams County, including Thornton

The Associated Press declared state Rep. Kyle Mullica victorious over Republican Courtney Potter shortly before 10 p.m. on election night.

Mullica declared victory the following morning. “I’ve spent my whole life in Adams County. I know what issues our community faces. I’ve spent the last four years in the State House debunking false information and dangerous policy that doesn’t help Adams County families. I’m proud to continue my service in the state legislature and I will keep up the fight to protect our families and human rights.” 

This seat was a bit of a “stretch” goal for the GOP, given its 9.1% Democratic rating lean by the redistricting commission. The open seat was a battle between Mullica and Republican Courtney Potter.

Mullica easily won the fundraising contest, with more than $248,000 raised to Potter’s $65,000. 

Senate District 27: Arapahoe and Douglas counties

State Rep. Tom Sullivan, a Democrat from Centennial, defeated Republican Tom Kim. The Associated Press called the race shortly for Sullivan around 10:30 Wednesday

Sullivan declared victory Wednesday afternoon. “I am honored by the support that Arapahoe and Douglas county voters have placed in me to be their representative at the Capitol. I understand the struggles that my community faces and I will spend my time in the State Senate passing legislation that helps Colorado families. This race shows that you can run a campaign with the issue of gun violence prevention front and center and win big.”

The last of the open seats is primarily based in Arapahoe County with a small portion of northern Douglas County, and rated with a 4.7% Democratic lean by the redistricting commission. 

The fundraising battle was just about dead even: Sullivan was backed by gun control groups such as Colorado Ceasefire and Everytown for Gun Safety, with more than $201,000; Kim took in $208,000 in cash and non-monetary donations.

Best of the rest

17 Senate seats were up for grabs on Election Night.

There will be two Peltons in the state Senate come January. 

In Senate District 1, Byron Pelton, a Republican county commissioner from Logan County, ran unopposed in the district that includes seven northeastern Colorado counties. He will succeed state Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg of Sterling, who was term-limited.

His cousin, state Rep. Rod Pelton of Cheyenne Wells, handily won the race of the open seat in Senate District 35, the southern half of the Eastern Plains, defeating Democrat Travis Star Nelson by a margin of 72.68% to 27.32%. The district is made up of 13 primarily rural counties, although it includes small portions of Douglas and El Paso counties.

Republican State Rep. Mark Baisley of Woodland Park, who also faces questions about his residency, easily won his race for Senate District 4, with 60.4% versus 39.6% of the vote for Democrat Jeff Ravage. The district goes from Jefferson County on its north border to Custer County at the southern end. Baisley won the district’s most populous county, Fremont, by a better than 2-to-1 margin.

Senate District 7, in Mesa and Delta counties, will send Republican state Rep. Janice Rich of Grand Junction to the state Senate. Rich defeated Democrat David Stahlke by a margin of 70.2% to 29.8%.

State Sen. Paul Lundeen of Monument, who is expected to become Senate Minority Leader Thursday, easily won his re-election to a second term in Senate District 9. Lundeen took 62% of the vote to 35.7% for Democratic opponent Arik Dougherty and 2.3% of the vote for Libertarian Steve Darnell.

In Senate District 22, the district that covers Wheat Ridge, Democratic state Sen. Jessie Danielson defeated Republican Colby Drechsel by a margin of 67.3% to 32.8%.

Democratic state Sen. Faith Winter of Westminster won her second term, albeit in Senate District 25. She previously represented SD24 but was drawn into SD25. Winter defeated Melody Peotter by a margin of 61.7% to 38.3%.

Republican state Sen. Kevin Van Winkle of Highlands Ranch, who was appointed to his Senate District 30 seat in June after the resignation of Sen. Chris Holbert of Douglas County, won his first full term over Democratic candidate Braden Miguel. Van Winkle took 53.5% of the vote to Miguel’s 46.5%. 

In the two Denver-centric districts, Senate District 32 and Senate District 34, the incumbent Democrats won easily Tuesday night. Sen. Robert Rodriguez won his second term by 75.7% to 24.3% for Republican Dean Flanders. State Sen. Julie Gonzales ran unopposed.