Colorado Politics

Democrats increase fundraising edge in nearly all competitive state House races

With only one week left until Election Day, Democratic candidates remained ahead of the money race in all but one of the most competitive elections for the Colorado House of Representatives.

Democrats are out-fundraising their Republican opponents in nine of the 10 House races projected to be the most competitive, according to reports released Monday from the Secretary of State’s Office. In those nine races, Democrats increased their financial lead in the last two weeks, and in eight of the races, Democratic candidates raised more than $10,000, the latest reports show.

The greatest disparity in fundraising occurred in the race for House District 13, where Democratic candidate Rep. Julie McCluskie has raised over $221,000 so far, compared to her Republican opponent David Buckley’s $21,000.

District 13 is technically an open seat after Democratic Rep. Judy Amabile was drawn out of it and McCluskie of District 61 was drawn into it. District 13 – including Grand, Jackson, Lake, Park and Summit counties and parts of Chaffee County – holds a 5.4% Democratic advantage based on the redistricting commission’s analysis, but a nearly 1,000-voter surplus in Republicans compared to Democrats.

McCluskie’s spending has similarly dwarfed her opponent’s – $162,000 to Buckley’s $27,000, including extra funds from loans. McCluskie also has the second-highest fundraising total of the competitive House candidates, and she increased her financial lead by the most in the last two weeks: by over $19,200.

The highest increase in individual fundraising came from Sen. Tammy Story, the Democrat running for House District 25 against Republican Rep. Colin Larson. Story raised nearly $23,000 in the last two weeks – more than any other competitive House candidate. This brought her fundraising total to just under $169,000, more than double Larson’s $74,000.

In a rare situation, the race for District 25 features two current lawmakers after they were each drawn out of their districts. Story has consistently increased the fundraising gap month after month, going from only $12,000 in her favor in August to over $94,000 now. District 25 in Jefferson County leans Republican, with a 1.8% advantage from redistricting and nearly 3,000 more Republican voters than Democrats.

The only competitive race that financially favors the Republican candidate is in House District 19, where Republican Rep. Dan Woog raised just over $79,100, while Democrat Jennifer Lea Parenti hauled in $73,300. Though Woog holds the money advantage, this is the smallest difference in fundraising by far for any of the most competitive House races.

Parenti narrowed the gap from a $13,000 deficit in September to $4,600 in October, but Woog managed to increase it to $5,800 in the last two weeks. District 19, based in Boulder and Weld counties, is technically an open seat due to the departure of Republican Rep. Tim Geitner and Woog being drawn out of his District 63. Both the redistricting analysis and voter registration results point to a small Republican advantage, with a 641-Republican voter surplus and redistricting favoring Republicans by 1.5%. 

Other notable races include House District 38, where incumbent Democratic Rep. David Ortiz has raised more than $229,000 – the highest fundraising total for any competitive House candidate. Though Ortiz is financially dominating Republican candidate Jaylen Mosqueira, who has raised more than $63,000, District 38 has a slightly larger Republican population, with around 600 more Republican voters than Democrats.

The only Republican candidate to raise more than $10,000 in the last two weeks is Shelli Shaw, who is running for House District 59 against the incumbent Democrat, Rep. Barbara McLachlan. Shaw raised $10,500, totaling just over $90,500. However, McLachlan raised almost $17,000 in the same time period, and her total stands at nearly $180,000. District 59 leans 2.2% Democratic based on the redistricting analysis, but has 4,100 more Republican voters than Democrats.

Here are where the remaining top 10 most competitive House races stand for fundraising:

House District 18

? Marc Snyder (D): $153,284 – up by $10,284

? Shana Black (R): $20,960 – up by $640

House District 26

? Meghan Lukens (D): $167,108 – up by $8,908

? Savannah Wolfson (R): $86,579 – up by $1,838

House District 61

? Eliza Hamrick (D): $138,242 – up by $12,226

? Dave Woolever (R): $32,818 – up by $172

House District 16

? Stephanie Vigil (D): $70,822 – up by $11,512

? Dave Donelson (R): $48,735 – up by $3,600

House District 28

? Sheila Lieder (D): $92,089 – up by $12,019

? Dan Montoya (R): $34,667 – up by $3,800

The November election has the potential to bring big changes to Colorado’s House of Representatives. Last year, the state redrew its district boundaries, moving many sitting lawmakers, changing the political balance of each district, and making several House seats competitive for the first time in a decade.

While Democrats aren’t at risk of losing control of the chamber – enjoying a 41-24 majority – Republican candidates have a shot at flipping a substantial number of seats to create a nearly evenly split Legislature, though Republican candidates will now have to overcome a significant fundraising deficit in all but one of the most competitive races.

Colorado Politics identified the most politically competitive state House districts by looking at the estimated competitiveness from the Independent Redistricting Commission’s report, in addition to the most recent active voter registration numbers from October.

DENVER, CO – JANUARY 13: Representatives are asked to stand on the floor of the House during the first legislative day of the 73rd General Assembly at the Colorado State Capitol on January 13, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. 
(Photo By Kathryn Scott)

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