NOONAN | State House races to test Colorado voting trends

Some Colorado State House races are more interesting than Democrats would probably like, and some that should be competitive are undercut by lack of money – mostly on the Republican side.
To set the stage, Republicans are universally running on three issues: economic growth, public safety and crime, and choice and/or vouchers for public education. Democrats have more diverse issues including keeping the public in public education, economic growth through harnessing climate change, more funds for mental health, and affordability in health care and housing.
Nine competitive House seats by registration have Democratic dominance by money. Two competitive House seats by registration have Republican dominance by money.
With some careful district drawing, the redistricting task force created a highly competitive district in the middle of Colorado Springs, HD-16, with Republican Dave Donelson up by 3 points in party registration and about $6,000 in funding. Donelson, a city councilman, has received contributions from business groups such as construction contractors and real estate interests. He’s former military and has retired from the medical enterprise he founded.
Stephanie Vigil is Donelson’s opposite. She’s a young political activist who worked through a challenging youth and committed herself to political change. She’s received no funds yet from the Democratic Party per se or from Gov. Jared Polis for whom she knocked on many doors in his 2018 Governor’s race, but she has received money directly from numerous Democratic legislators and lobbyists. So they think she has a chance, and with ambitious door knocking, maybe she does. This is a great race to watch to see if a young woman Democrat slightly underwater by registration and money can pull out a win in Colorado Springs of all places.
Another fascinating race pits a Democrat Air Force Lt. Colonel, Jennifer Parenti, against Republican incumbent Dan Woog in HD-63 from Longmont to Frederick. The registration is 1.2 points-plus to Woog and he has about $13,000 more in funding. Parenti has the support of Democratic leadership from the north Front Range including Senate President Stephen Fenberg while Woog has financial help from business groups.
The incumbent Woog sponsored a biartisan bill to streamline access to critical services for low-income households. He voted against bills on healthy meals for all school children, nurse staffing standards, and employment opportunities for juveniles. He sponsored a bill to have “on watch” school districts deposit money into accounts for students. This would take down school districts such as Adams 14, Mapleton, Englewood and Sheridan. Parenti sees affordable housing, the environmental pushes and pulls of oil and gas development and climate change in the district, and women’s reproductive rights as critical. She wants to increase school funding and reduce imbalances between rural, urban and suburban districts. Like HD-16, will the trends in women’s voting preferences translate into a party switch in HD-63?
Another test of voting trends will occur in HD-37 in Greenwood Village and Centennial. The district is tied in voter registration with only a 0.5-point advantage to Democrat Ruby Dickson competing against Republican Paul Archer in this open seat. Money is also tied, with Dickson ahead by only $800 as of now.
Both candidates have distinguished features in their backgrounds. Archer is a successful businessman with 20 grandchildren! Dickson has a great musical voice who has sung the national anthem at professional sports events. She’s also an economist whose interest is in reducing inflation, climate change and putting the public back in public education. Archer’s interests are in lowering taxes, protecting TABOR, fully funding law enforcement, and an education system that gets back to “the three r’s.” Dickson has support from the Democratic party and environmental groups. Archer has support from business interests, especially in general contracting, housing and real estate.
Arapahoe County has moved to the Democrats for at least four years. This race will tell whether the trend is solid in putting women in leadership positions or whether the Republican party can reassert its strength with business interests to take the seat.
Perhaps the hottest races for seats in the state House are located in south and west Jefferson County. Jeffco, like Arapahoe County, has trended to the Democrats, but south Jeffco has stayed with the Republicans and west Jeffco has narrowly moved to the Democrats. HD-25 pits two incumbents, state Sen. Tammy Story-D against state Rep. Colin Larson-R for a west Jeffco seat that leans four points to the GOP. Story has a slight lead in money.
These two legislators voted for each other’s bills on mental health care for children, wildfire mitigation, wildlife safe crossings, savings accounts for disabled, special ed funding, sealing criminal records and prescription drug monitoring. They differ strongly on public school policy, 2nd amendment rights and support for certain programs for the disadvantaged. Story supported food pantry assistance grant programs and more transparent oil and gas reporting. Larson voted no on these bills along with his GOP colleagues.
The other fireball race in Jeffco covers parts of Lakewood south to Dakota Ridge. Dan Montoya-R is competing against Sheila Lieder-D for HD-28 with no difference in voter registration. Lieder, late to the race due to a resignation, has already gathered more than $26,000 in just over a month. Montoya has $20,000. Lieder has strong support within the labor community as well as current and former legislators. Montoya has attracted money from real estate, contractors and Republican lobbyists. This new seat has split between Republicans and Democrats. It will be a test as to whether a Republican can keep south Jeffco Republican.
Finally, last week this column reported that Matt Solomon, running against Dylan Roberts for SD-08, owns a gun store. Solomon reports he sold the store four years ago and that currently he does military education and business consulting.
So there it is! The high- and low-down on some of the newly designed competitive House races. With fewer than two months to Nov. 8, it’s going to be an exciting time in Colorado.
Paula Noonan owns Colorado Capitol Watch, the state’s premier legislature tracking platform.

