There’s an order to calculating which state House and Senate races are competitive. The first scan is voter registration. The second scan is money. Political principles and voter turnout come in at the next levels if registration and money are competitive.

Based on voter registration, six state Senate races and 21 House races may be competitive using a registration spread differential of no more than 8 points, or, as an example, 28% registration to one party and 20% to the other party with the remainder as mostly Unaffiliated.

By registration, the Tom Sullivan-D vs. Tom Kim-R state Senate race is tightest, with 27.21% to the Dems, 25.34% to Republicans and 45.95% to Unaffiliated. That’s a small plus-1.97 for the Democrats.

Money tells another story. Sullivan, currently a House member from Aurora, has $66,970 on hand while Kim has $9,833. The district has 112,973 active voters to reach with mail, yard signs, etc. At this point, Sullivan has a strong advantage through name recognition and funds available. He’ll attract more money because of these advantages. So unless the GOP hops in to help Kim financially, his ability to get his message to voters will be limited by his funding. The current advantage goes to Sullivan.

The Colorado Springs race between Rep. Tony Exum, Sr.-D and state Sen. Dennis Hisey-R pits two incumbents against each other. Democrats lead by two percentage points in voter registration, but more than 50% of voters are Unaffiliated. That’s the largest Unaffiliated number in all Senate races. Hisey has a significant money advantage at $65,498 on hand to Exum’s $12,647.

To demonstrate Exum’s money weakness, in 2020 the four women in tight registration districts who carried the Democrats to control of the state Senate each raised about $500,000. Granted, that’s an outrageous number for state legislature races, but their fundraising secured two years for the agenda of Gov. Jared Polis.

Exum is better situated than Kim (see above) in that he has name recognition, but he’s not as well positioned as Hisey for getting his message out. And what are their messages? Exum voted with Democrats consistently. Of bills that reached a third and final reading, he voted YES 507 times and NO 3 times. Hisey, though not nearly as conservative as Ron Hanks or minority leader Chris Holbert, voted YES 394 times and NO 125 times.

Hisey says that his main concern is crime, public safety and support for first responders. He will put more money into police because “crime rates are spiking.” The first responder issue may be difficult to pin on Exum because he worked as a first responder, but Hisey’s money advantage may be able to make it stick. Exum’s emphasis is jobs and the economy. He’s also a strong supporter of protecting air and water quality. Hisey doesn’t mention the environment or climate change in his list of issues.

The competition between state Rep. Dylan Roberts-D and Eagle City Council member Matt Solomon-R presents a different angle on races. Democrats are down 2.5 percentage points in voter registrations for the district, so this will be a turn-out election for the blue party.

Roberts is up on money by a lot. The state representative has $137,938 on hand while Solomon has $26,984. The district has 110,741 voters stretching from the Interstate-70 resort corridor along with Steamboat Springs to Craig, Rangely, and Meeker in northwest Colorado. Both men come from the I-70 area so they will have to introduce themselves to ranchers and energy workers in the outer areas of the state.

Roberts has sponsored bills in support of the mountain economy, particularly on affordable healthcare, affordable housing and worker transitions and employment in energy industries. He also has worked on climate change, clean water and expanding in-stream water-flow programs. Solomon, as an owner of a gun store, strongly supports second amendment rights. He’s also committed to correcting public education funding.

Solomon may win if he keeps his fingers crossed that Republican voters will show up in high numbers and vote the party candidate. Roberts will win if he can use his funding to turn out women concerned about reproductive rights and health care in general. He must also turn out people focused on climate change.

The three races illustrate the array of challenges candidates face in tight matches. The contenders who put together the best strategies that use money to promote issues and turnout will probably go to the State House in January.

Paula Noonan owns Colorado Capitol Watch, the state’s premier legislature tracking platform.