Data on social distancing efforts – including stay-at-home orders issued by Gov. Jared Polis in March – have reduced transmission of the coronavirus, well within the targets set by state public health officials and the governor.

Officials with the Colorado Department of Public Health and the Colorado School of Public Health presented that data in a conference call with reporters Monday afternoon. “We did well,” said Dr. Jonathan Samet, dean of the Colorado School of Public Health. “We’ve reduced the contact rate to 75%” and the curve – a measure that shows the peak of infections and when that peak takes place – is going down.

Despite the news that social distancing has begun to show results, the officials said that 65,000 to 75,000 Coloradans likely have contracted COVID-19, well above the 10,098 cases listed by CDPHE for Monday. 

State epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said the CDPHE’s goal is to show the data that’s guiding decision making, and the state’s next job is to figure out the policies and strategies that tie in to those numbers.

At this stage of the pandemic, public health officials are looking at the impact of social distancing, what happens to infection rates if social distancing is relaxed, and by how much.

But even at a rate of 65% of social distancing, there isn’t going to be a lot of tourism in Colorado this summer, they said. 

Testing still isn’t widely available in Colorado or in any other state, said Dr. Jill Hunsaker Ryan, the executive director of CDPHE. That’s because of a lack of supplies, both in swabs and reagents (the chemicals used to process the tests), she said.

Samet also presented a variety of scenarios for phased reduction in social distancing as the state moves away from its stay-at-home order, scheduled for this Sunday.

The most stringent, at 65% social distancing measures, which would require mask wearing, improved case detection and containment, and older Coloradans maintaining their current high levels of social distancing, places the date for the peak of intensive care unit bed needs on April 21. But the more the state relaxes social distancing measures, the more likely hospitals will become overwhelmed and the longer it will take for the virus to peak and wind down. 

Greater reductions in social distancing – as low as 45% – would extend the peak for intensive care unit hospital bed needs into December. 

The state’s goal is not have the health care capacity exceeded, Samet explained. 

Polis will hold a press conference later Monday to talk about state strategies for relaxing social distancing and reopening the state to economic activity.