The election data gurus at Decision Desk HQ are projecting Democrats will pick up 13 Republican House seats – including the one held by U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman – in next year’s midterms, but a Coffman strategist shrugged, saying the forecast model doesn’t account for the five-term incumbent’s history outperforming the political environment.

A combination of factors – President Trump’s historic unpopularity, the inability of Congress to pass major legislation and the wide lead held by Democrats in generic congressional ballot polling – suggest that next year’s elections could result in “a perfect political storm,” according to Decision Desk HQ, a startup that collects and analyzes voting data.

After crunching numbers – including Hillary Clinton’s winning performance in Coffman’s district – the site predicts a Democrat will win 51.8 percent of the vote and calculates a 61-percent probability the district will flip.

While Coffman defeated well-funded, high-profile Democratic nominees former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff and former Senate President Morgan Carroll in the past two cycles, so far three Democrats are running in a spirited primary for the chance to challenge him next year – attorney and Army Ranger combat veteran Jason Crow, author and former Obama administration energy official Levi Tillemann and attorney David Aarestad.

Coffman has weathered tough years for Republicans before, noted Tyler Sandberg, a campaign spokesman, and consistently outperforms polling that shows his congressional races closer than they’ve wound up being.

It also appears the Decision Desk HQ analysis doesn’t include Coffman’s 2006 statewide win for secretary of state – the same year Democrats romped at the ballot box nationwide and took control of Congress. Coffman, for his part, ran 19 points ahead of the Republican at the top of the ticket, gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez.

“Mike has always approached every race with the relentless effort and focus you’d expect of a Marine, and this year is no different,” Sandberg told Colorado Politics. “No matter what the political prognosticators say, Mike’s reputation for being an independent voice, his tireless work ethic for his constituents and his leadership on common sense issues from mental health care reform to helping first time homebuyers save for their down payment has led to voters reelecting him by margins no electoral oracle would have predicted.”

But the Democrats hoping to unseat Coffman said the forecast echoes what they’re seeing on the ground in the battleground district, which encompasses Aurora and parts of Adams, Arapahoe and Douglas counties on the east side of the metro area.

“Voters are making it clear that they want new leadership,” said Alex Ball, a spokeswoman for Crow. “That’s why Jason Crow’s campaign has been gaining so much momentum lately. Folks know that after 28 years in politics, Mike Coffman is more concerned with keeping his job, than helping his constituents at home.”

Noting that CNN recently called Coffman “the man who could be the most vulnerable Republican in Congress,”  she added, “People here in the 6th District are ready for change.”

“It’s not surprising Mike Coffman’s electoral prospects are bleak,” Tillemann told Colorado Politics. “In 2016 Rep. Coffman promised to be a bulwark against unaccountable power in Washington. Instead, he’s voted with Trump 93 percent of the time. In the process he’s sided with Trump on legislation that is anti-immigrant, anti-environment and anti-consumer time after time after time. Democrats can win if we stay true to our core values: promoting economic opportunity, equality and a common sense approach to good government that lifts up all Americans.”