Insights: Hickenlooper not too mighty on the national stage by one new measure
A new poll suggests Gov. John Hickenlooper’s popularity — the underpinning of the conversation about his viability as a national candidate — ain’t what the media cracks it up to be.
But the last election proved snapshots of public opinion can be deceiving.
The polling and news website Morning Consult says our man Hick is the 18th most popular governor among respective state residents.
From statehouse reporters to public radio games shows, people are suspicious about what Hickenlooper has in mind for the 2020 elections. (I’m maintaining he’ll run for U.S. Senate against Cory Gardner.)
Hickenlooper has enviable numbers headed into his final two years in office. His approval rating is 61 percent and his disapproval is 28 percent, according to Morning Consult. Keep in mind, registered Democrats make up just 31.6 percent of the state’s 3.3 million active voters.
That’s big. Attracting non-party moderates rises above the national political landscape like the Rockies over Denver, given the Democrats’ struggles beyond the far left.
It’s certainly good for Democrats in Colorado.
“If his popularity holds, you would imagine that is good for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate that emerges for 2018,” said my friend Paul Teske, distinguished professor (a title and a fact) and dean of the University of Colorado Denver’s School of Public Affairs.
“Most of the most popular governors are Republicans, which is good for their national political ‘bench’ in the future. Interestingly, many of the very top are Republicans in blue states (Maryland, Massachusetts, etc), which means that they must be fairly moderate in their views.”
That says to me if you’re going to be a Republican running for governor, you’re swimming against the tide with a hard-right message.
Teske pointed out the popular Republican governors are a sharp contrast to an unpopular president from the same party, during what should be his honeymoon period.
“These numbers suggests that American voters aren’t sour on all politicians – they mostly like their governors,” said the distinguished professor.
If rankings matter, given the inner workings of state politics, Hickenlooper trails Wyoming’s Matt Mead and Mississippi’s Phil Bryant, but that can be explained by the strong right tilt of those states. Colorado is a big purple gumbo of factions.
But Idaho’s Butch Otter at 26? That battles me. I know nothing of the politics of Idaho or Butch Otter’s policies, but I find it impossible to dislike a person named Butch Otter. I wish I had a best friend named Butch Otter.
At the bottom is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who once called Colorado home to zombie pot heads and once called me “bow tie,” twice, at a Bob Beauprez event. I was wearing one.
Well, look where that, Bridgegate and his unflappable support for Donald Trump got him in his somewhat purple state: 25 percent approval, 71 percent disapproval.
But woe to be Susana Martinez. New Mexico’s Republican governor. She’s less popular at home than Alabama’s love ex-gov., Robert Bentley, who was shamed out of office last week after more than a year-long scandal involving extramarital hanky panky with an adviser and an arrest for using state resources to woo her.
The tapes of Bentley’s stuttering, twangy pillow talk phone calls to his much-younger aide played better at home than Martinez’s policies. Bentley’s approval rating is still 44 percent. Martinez is at 43.
Like Hickenlooper, Martinez was once very popular in her state and considered a possibility for the national stage, but fortunes turn quickly in politics. Ask Sarah Palin, once the most popular governor in America. The list of reasons in the Land of Disenchantment is long,
Last May Trump campaigned in Albuquerque and said his fellow Republican was bad at her job. That was six months after an unflattering police audio in which the governor, sounding a bit tipsy and threatening, demanded to know the name of the person who called in a noise complaint about her Christmas party.
Andrew Oxford of the Santa Fe New Mexican wrote last week, “She has clashed often with lawmakers and has threatened a government shutdown while the state remains mired in a financial crisis and its unemployment rate is America’s highest.”
What does al this candidate-measuring mean to Hickenlooper? Probably nothing. If you ask him, he cites the numbers of days he has left in office under the gold dome.
Our governor is a youthful 65 now with a still relatively new wife and a teenaged son. He likes kicking back and hanging out the way Payton Manning likes throwing touchdowns. If he doesn’t take on Gardner, he might open a brew pub in LoDo and ride around town on a Vespa.