Updated: Friday, 08/12/16, 13:39 MDT

Two closely watched and controversial state constitutional amendments related to oil and natural gas development in Colorado face the prospect of not making the ballot, after backers submitted just slightly more than the required number of signatures for each measure.

The two measures are Initiative 75, which would allow local governments to regulate hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, and Initiative 78, which would create a 2,500-foot setback between fracking rigs and buildings and water sources.

Proponents said they turned in more than 100,000 signatures for each measure, just a few thousand more than the state requires.

Dr. Robert Preuhs, associate professor of political science at Metro State University in Denver, said a good general rule for petition gatherers is to collect one and a half times the required signatures.

“About a third of the signatures are usually rejected for whatever reason,” Preuhs said. “So you probably want to have between 140,000 and 150,000 to make sure you have a decent chance of making the ballot.”

Preuhs said if the backers of the two oil and gas measures submitted far less than those numbers, “I’d say there’s a good chance they won’t make it to the ballot.”

Signatures can be disqualified for many reasons, such as signers not being registered voters, having an incorrect address or illegible signature, Preuhs added.

Even if those who gather signatures are close to the required number, Preuhs said it makes sense to submit them for verification anyway, “since you don’t have anything to lose and at least you have a shot.”

The Colorado Statesman conducted an unscientific, random review of proposed ballot measure signatures for nine issues submitted in 2010, 2012 and 2014 and found a very rough average estimate of between 20,000 to 30,000 petition signatures were disqualified by the Colorado Secretary of State’s office.

The office will now conduct a 5 percent random sample of submitted signatures to determine whether each oil and gas proposal met the threshold of 98,492 valid voter signatures – 5 percent of the total votes cast for all candidates for Colorado Secretary of State in the last general election.

The office has until Sept. 7 to announce whether these proposals, along with others submitted Monday, Aug. 8, and related to different issues, made the ballot.

Backers confident despite last-minute rush

Lauren Petrie, Rocky Mountain region director for Food & Water Watch, one of the petition backers, said signatures were gathered almost to the 3 p.m. deadline Monday. However, she could not say exactly how many signatures were submitted for each measure.

“I know we cleared the 98,000 threshold, but since we didn’t have time to do a complete accounting, we can’t say anything but more than 100,000” signatures were turned in, Petrie said.

The key to placing the measures on the ballot is the signature validation rate, Petrie added, and expressed confidence the two questions will be approved for the Nov. 8 ballot.

The fact the energy industry-bankrolled opposition has a huge fundraising lead doesn’t deter the proponents, Petrie said.

“We’re used to being David in this battle against Goliath, even though we’ll be greatly outspent,” she added. “We’ve done a lot with a little before.”

Opponents ready to hit the ground anyway

Karen Crummy, communications director for Protecting Colorado’s Environment, Economy, and Energy Independence, one group opposing the two measures, said they are proceeding as if the measures will make the ballot.

“I’m not sure there’s any proposed constitutional amendments that made it to the ballot without a lot of wiggle room,” Crummy said, “but we’re moving ahead with all that a campaign does to reach as many voters as we can and help educate them on these two measures and what they would do to our economy.”

In a statement posted on the group’s website the day petitions were turned in, Crummy said that if the two measures passed, they would eliminate 90 percent of all new oil and natural gas development, lead to the loss of more than 140,000 jobs and cost the state $217 billion in economic activity over the next 15 years.

Proponents ‘troubled’ by SOS handling

Petrie released a statement late Wednesday that took issue with Secretary of State Communications Director Lynn Bartels’ tweet of a photo showing stacks of allegedly empty petition boxes submitted by measure backers.

“We find it troubling that an employee of the government body tasked with fairly and objectively counting the signatures would publicly comment on the quality or quantity of the petitions before any official count could have been made,” Petrie’s statement read. “It has resulted in media coverage including headlines like, ‘Empty Petition Boxes Put Anti-Fracking Initiatives In Doubt,’ in which the spokesperson is again quoted. … At this point, we question whether or not the Secretary of State’s office will engage in an honest and unbiased accounting of the signatures. If they do, they will find that we indeed have provided more than enough signatures to get on the ballot. Any other result at the end of the day should be called into question given these public statements from their spokesperson.”