With snowpack melt already peaking in some parts of the state and drought conditions worsening compared to last year, Colorado’s water watchers are hoping for a wetter summer, though they anticipate the situation deteriorating before getting better.

Meanwhile, the governor has convened a drought task force, which was last constituted five years ago.

There was a little hope for what would follow the “winter of defeat,” according to Assistant State Climatologist Peter Goble at the Colorado State University Climate Center.

Unsurprisingly, the state got “skunked” for moisture in February, with little snowfall to help avoid worsening drought, Goble said at the meeting of the Water Conditions Monitoring Committee.

He noted the U.S. Drought Monitor reported a year ago that about 27% of the state was in moderate drought. As of last week, more than 64% of the state is in moderate drought, while severe drought now covers more than a third of Colorado. A year ago, it was at just under 8%.

Temperatures in February were the highest on record at 7.6° F above the 1991 to 2020 normal, and 9.2° F above the 20th century average, he said.

Still, there’s a glimmer of hope.

Goble said seasonal forecasting models show a potential for a wetter than normal summer, particularly over Western Colorado, although the same models show a drier than normal summer on the Eastern Plains.

“There’s a better than normal shot of active monsoon this summer,” but, he added, things are likely to get worse before they get better, with a pending heat wave later this week.

The Water Conditions Monitoring Committee is a group of water providers and staff from the Colorado Water Conservation Board that meets monthly to review upcoming precipitation and temperature forecasts. This time of year, the focus is on snowpack.

Monday’s storm, primarily a Front Range event, did little to dent the drought or improve snowpack, Goble said.

The warmer temperatures, combined with windier than normal conditions, means snowpack is already melting and has already peaked in some parts of the state. Leaves are sprouting on trees three weeks early, he added.

Colorado is not alone in its weather troubles, said Brian Domonkos of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Domonkos said he looked at snowpack, soil moisture and reservoir levels — and none of it is encouraging.

The entire state is very poor for snowpack, he said.

The state snowpack is at 59% of median, a massive deficit that means about 5 inches less water in the snow than the average. That’s about a 40-year low, Domonkos said.

In some basins, the snowpack melt has already peaked. He noted the possibility of cold temperatures and more snow, stating that there have been years with late spring snows, such as in 1981. But he said that kind of scenario isn’t particularly likely.

More than half of the state’s 118 Snotel sites, which show snowpack around the state, show record low levels in almost every basin. Of those sites, more than half are at the lowest or second lowest in history.

Overall precipitation for Colorado is at 12.7 inches, the third lowest on record, he said.

On Tuesday, Gov. Jared Polis activated the state’s drought task force, acting on recommendations from the Water Conditions Monitoring Committee and its partner agencies.

The task force will help the state better understand and elevate the local, regional, and sector-specific impacts of worsening drought conditions, the governor’s office said in a news release.

The drought task force, last activated in 2020, brings together senior leadership from the departments of natural resources, agriculture, local affairs and the Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

“Drought does not impact every community in the same way,” said Colorado Water Conservation Board director Lauren Ris. “The Drought Task Force helps the state understand where impacts are being felt the most, and elevates those local challenges so we can better coordinate response and support communities across Colorado.”