Democratic congressional candidate Jessica Killin is running neck-and-neck with Republican U.S. Rep. Jeff Crank a year before the 2026 election in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, according to a new internal poll of likely voters released Wednesday by Killin’s campaign.

The poll, conducted by Democratic firm Global Strategy Group and first reported by Colorado Politics, found Killin trailing Crank by 3 percentage points — within the survey’s margin of error — in a three-way race with independent candidate Matt Cavanaugh.

After providing voters with both positive and negative biographical and policy positions describing the two major party candidates, Killin pulls slightly ahead of Crank, pollster Andrew Baumann said in a polling memo.

It’s a remarkable set of results in a district that has never elected a Democrat in its more than 50-year history, but Baumann told Colorado Politics he isn’t surprised.

“This is the district that is moving fastest away from Republicans in the entire country,” Baumann said, citing Cook Political Report’s latest House district ratings. “They don’t necessarily love Democrats, but they don’t like MAGA Republicans, either.”

While registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 2 to 1 in the 5th CD, unaffiliated voters make up slightly more than half of the district’s electorate. The district shares its boundaries with El Paso County, except for a handful of precincts.

Global Strategy Group surveyed 450 likely 2026 district voters Oct. 30-Nov. 3, with pollsters saying the sample reflected the district’s geographic, political and demographic breakdown. The poll has a 4.6% margin for error.

An Army veteran, former top corporate lobbyist and former chief of staff to second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Killin is one of five Democrats running in next year’s primary for the chance to challenge Crank, a longtime political operative who was elected last year to his first term by a 14-point margin.

Killin raised more than $1 million in her first quarter in the race — setting a record for the district — and finished September with roughly the same amount in the bank as Crank, who reported just over $778,000 on hand.

Crank’s campaign on Wednesday derided Killin’s campaign fundraising feats as proof she’s a creature of the “Washington, D.C., Democrat Establishment,” since more than 90% of the funds Killin raised came from out-of-state donors.

According to Killin’s internal poll, Crank has decent name identification among likely voters at 59%, but his favorability rating is slightly upside down, with 29% expressing a favorable reaction to the incumbent and 30% saying they view him unfavorably. Among unaffiliated voters, however, Crank faces more skepticism, with just 20% expressing a favorable response and 32% an unfavorable one.

President Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans, however, are deep underwater among the district’s voters, with net negative 9% and negative 15% favorability, respectively, the poll found. In addition, U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, the three-term Republican who represents the neighboring 4th Congressional District, has an even worse image with 5th CD voters, according to the poll, with a net negative 24% favorability.

In the poll’s initial match-up, Crank leads Killin 43% to 40%, with Cavanaugh supported by 5% of voters and 13% undecided. Killin leads Crank by 11 points among unaffiliated voters, with Cavanaugh’s share of that bloc totaling 8%.

After presenting voters with positive and negative messages about Crank and Killin, which were reviewed by Colorado Politics — including what Baumann described as a “hard hit on Killin using the language that Crank’s team has used in the press” — the Democrat pulled into the lead by two points over Crank, 41% to 39%, with Cavanaugh at 7% and 11% undecided.

Baumann said the survey’s head-to-head questions — without Cavanaugh, the independent, listed as a choice — produced nearly identical results, with Killin down by 3 points initially and up by a couple points after voters heard detailed information about the candidates.

Killin told Colorado Politics that her campaign’s poll demonstrates that she’s well-positioned to unseat Crank in the rapidly changing district.

“This poll shows voters are looking for a congressperson who will work for them to lower costs, not kowtow to party leaders and vote to increase healthcare, utility, and grocery bills,” Killin said in a text message. “I plan to work hard to earn their votes and win this race.”

A spokesman for the Crank campaign dismissed the poll results as nothing to get excited about.

“Senior Biden White House official Jessica Killin produced numbers showing that after voters hear her very best pitch, she can get 41% of folks to vote for her,” said Nick Trainer, a Crank senior adviser, in a text message. “Okay, and?”

Cavanaugh, for his part, cited other recent polling that found a majority of the district’s voters were open to voting for an independent candidate.

“A career politician from one party and a senior Biden administration official from the other can’t bring the change Coloradans need from Congress,” Cavanaugh said in a text message.

“A majority of voters in this district are registered unaffiliated/independent, and recent polling shows 62% want a true Independent option,” Cavanaugh added. “We’re confident we’ll have the resources to communicate that voters truly have options, for a change.”

The other Democrats running in the district are Joe Reagan, Jamey Smith, Zurit Zuriel Horowitz and Michelle Tweed. Reagan is making his second run for the seat after finishing second in last year’s primary.

Colorado’s major party 2026 nominees will be chosen in the June 30 primary.