The freshman Republican representing Colorado’s most competitive congressional district ranks as the country’s most vulnerable House incumbent in the National Journal’s initial list of the 2026 battleground seats.

U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans, a former police officer and one-term state lawmaker, finished in second place on the venerable publication’s Hotline’s 2026 House Power Rankings, behind an open Nebraska seat represented by a retiring Republican.

Last year, Evans defeated incumbent Democrat Yadira Caraveo to flip the 8th Congressional District by fewer than 2,500 votes, less than a percentage point. Two years earlier, Caraveo won the newly created district by an even slimmer margin.

Caraveo is one of seven Democrats seeking the nomination to challenge Evans in next year’s election.

Considered Colorado’s only true toss-up seat, the 8th CD stretches from Adams County suburbs north of Denver to Greeley in Weld County. Donald Trump carried the district last year by a narrow margin, mirroring Joe Biden’s winning performance in the same precincts in 2020.

Cautioning that the initial rankings represent “an initial benchmark of the competitive battlefield,” the Journal’s James A. Downs observed that neither Evans nor Caraveo managed to clear 50% of the vote. He predicted that the 2026 race is “likely to be another knife fight in a dark alley.”

The 2024 race for the seat drew roughly $40 million in campaign spending by candidates and outside groups, according to Open Secrets, marking the state’s most expensive U.S. House race in history. Already, party committees are lobbing near-daily attacks on the incumbent and his potential challengers, leaving little doubt that the seat is perceived to be a linchpin to securing the House majority in next year’s election.

Downs said Evans has some potential advantages heading into the campaign, including a crowded Democratic primary and a fundraising edge.

In addition to Caraveo, the other Democrats running for the seat include state Reps. Manny Rutinel, D-Commerce City, and Shannon Bird, D-Westminster; term-limited State Treasurer Dave Young; former Colorado Education Association President Amie Baca-Oehlert; and Marine veteran Evan Munsing, who launched his candidacy last week. A seventh Democrat, Denis Abrate, has filed to run but doesn’t appear to have an active campaign.

According to campaign finance reports filed last week, Evans finished the year’s second quarter with nearly $1.5 million in the bank. Rutinel, whose fundraising this year has matched Evans’, had $810,000 cash on hand at the end of last month, while Bird reported $374,000, Caraveo had $92,000, Young had just under $72,000 and Baca-Oehlert had $29,000. Munsing’s campaign said he raised $200,000 in his first 24 hours in the race, though his first report isn’t due until mid-October.

While Caraveo led the primary field by a wide margin in an internal poll released last month by her campaign, Downs noted that her stellar name recognition might not translate into being the strongest challenger against Evans, citing her acknowledged struggles with mental health and claims by former aides that she mistreated staff.

A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee who has been regularly mocking the Democrats’ primary line-up greeted Munsing’s entry in the race with a circus metaphor.

“Two’s company, three’s a crowd, five is a clown car, and seven is a clown bus of a messy, expensive Democrat primary, which is exactly what we now have in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District,” NRCC spokesman Zach Bannon said in a statement. “No matter what out of touch Democrat steps off the clown bus, voters in Colorado will reject them next year.”

His counterpart at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, for her part, welcomed Evans to the Hotline list with an equally cheeky statement.

“Gabe Evans’ disastrous record in Congress has solidified him as the most vulnerable House Republican in the entire country,” DCCC spokesperson Lindsay Reilly said in a release. “Make no mistake, in 466 days, we’re going to send Evans packing.”

Colorado’s 2026 primary ballot won’t be set until next spring, with the all-mail election taking place in the weeks leading up to the June 30 deadline.