Colorado weather watchers look toward end to La Niña and a wet summer
Coloradans could look forward to a somewhat wetter summer this year, according to information presented Tuesday to a coalition of water watchers.
The Colorado Water Conditions Monitoring Committee, formerly known as the Water Availability Task Force, looked over recent snowpack, precipitation, soil moisture, drought and reservoir levels throughout the state.
While most of the state is doing relatively well, there are some areas that will require substantial moisture in the coming weeks.
That includes southwestern Colorado and the basin that consists of the Dolores, Animas, San Juan and San Miguel rivers.
Also struggling is the upper Rio Grande in Colorado’s San Luis Valley.
Russ Schumacher, director of the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University, told the group that February was extremely warm on the Western Slope, in contrast to the average precipitation for that month. The Eastern Plains fared the best in terms of rainfall and experienced colder-than-usual temperatures, according to Schumacher.
The past winter was among the warmest and driest on record for western Colorado. While the mountains received decent snowfall, it wasn’t enough to make up for deficits from the previous winter, Schumacher said.
Alamosa had its warmest February on record.
As for snowfall, the northern and central mountains all recorded above-average snowfall, while the southeastern and southwestern regions of Colorado saw well below-average snowfall, which could increase the risk of wildfire activity.
Grand Junction saw eight days in February, when the city recorded temperatures at 65 degrees, a new record.
Regarding drought, the U.S. Drought Monitor’s most recent map indicates that about half of the state is experiencing some form of drought, with two tiny pockets in Larimer and Weld counties, as well as southern Colorado, experiencing the worst drought. However, the expectations are for a worsening drought in the southwest and a return to drought on the Eastern Plains.
Deep and shallow soil moisture, checked at 8 inches below the surface and 20 inches, is declining on the northern Front Range but is doing “OK” in southeastern Colorado, he said. Much of that is attributable to an intense snowstorm last November, the results of which are still helping to improve various climate conditions four months later.
Snowpack
This is the time of year when water watchers are closely monitoring the snowpack and how quickly it melts.
In the upper Rio Grande for example, the peak snowpack is in nine days. To reach the average, the area would need about 6 inches of liquid, or a snowstorm, according to NASA’s calculations, of about 60 inches.
Schumacher also noted that “La Nina,” the climate pattern characterized by cooler temperatures in the Pacific, is on its way out. In the southwestern U.S., that means a turn away from warmer, drier conditions.
“Early outlooks suggest an active summer monsoon season,” Schumacher said.
There’s hope for April — he indicated — the wettest month of the year for the Front Range, northern Colorado, and lower elevations of northwest Colorado.
Snowpack was also part of the focus from Brian Domonkos, a hydrologist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service, part of the US Department of Agriculture.
Colorado is expected to reach its peak snowpack in about 15 days, statewide, according to Domonkos.
It’s not a great year, but it’s better than 2012, when the snowpack peaked in early March, he said.
He’s hoping for storms in the next week to two weeks that will improve the snowpack.
Where it looks the best is the northern half of the state, including the South Platte basin and the Colorado River headwaters area.
Where it looks the worst is the upper Rio Grande, where snowpack is closer to 2012 levels.
The good news is the state’s reservoirs, most of which are at near normal levels, except for the reservoirs in the southwest.

